{"id":28644,"date":"2025-01-15T12:36:58","date_gmt":"2025-01-15T12:36:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/end-of-2024-review-disappointing-8-deep-value-investments-blog\/"},"modified":"2025-01-15T12:36:58","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T12:36:58","slug":"end-of-2024-review-disappointing-8-deep-value-investments-blog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=28644","title":{"rendered":"End of 2024 Review -disappointing +8% \u2013 Deep Value Investments Blog"},"content":{"rendered":"


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As ever thought I would do my usual end of year review.<\/p>\n

Hasn\u2019t been the best of years for me, doing value investment with a skew towards natural resources was pretty much the exact wrong sectors to be in.\u00a0 I am up about 8%, though it honestly feels far, far less, with BTC up 100%+ and NASDAQ up 30% am far off the pace \u2013 if you view it like that. \u00a0Still not tempted to join the madness \u2013 not my scene but big changes to my portfolio are needed next year.<\/p>\n

I haven\u2019t put enough time into the portfolio \u2013 been working on other things, plus unambiguously good ideas have been very hard to come by, might well be just as hard to put time in first half of next year\u2026<\/p>\n

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In terms of life the portfolio represents about 35x (this) year\u2019s spending (ex Russia) (spending which is very, very low vs most people), increasingly frustrated I can\u2019t give the portfolio one last push to get out of employment. Just one more 30-40% year would work wonders. I am doing this to get rich, not to just cruise along \u2013 though the risks of taking a hit haven\u2019t escaped me. I am now mid 40s, never really bothered with much of a career, worked part time (now remote) in mediocre (being charitable) jobs. Its potentially beginining to look like I may not make the fortune I always thought I would on shares, little stuck on what to do next \u2013 being an employee just doesnt work for me, investments are not really working well. To some degree this is linked, I dont have sufficient time to look into investments and performance is linked to this. I may well have enough to quit employment but not realize it \u2013 I have property which (with some volatility) covers my living expenses but its not terribly diversified and is very hard to manage, so I keep the job for security. <\/p>\n

It hasn\u2019t been a good year as I have struggled for ideas and those I have had havent worked.\u00a0 I don\u2019t trust cash\/ fixed income so have bought\/held shares like Vodafone and to some degree Phoenix group that I thought would be a place to park cash \u2013 it hasn\u2019t worked and would have been better off literally doing nothing or holding gold.<\/p>\n

Performance has been extremely volatile, particularly after the Trump election \u2013 which I didn\u2019t think would move anything, but instead, moved everything (before this I was up 14%). Performance has been very volatile, I am up 3% in the first few days of 2025 (not included).\u00a0 It\u2019s a long term game and I have found through the years that I spend a lot of time doing nothing then money comes along. It happened this year in September when China went on a run and in March when many resource companies jumped.<\/p>\n

Usual performance chart is below \u2013 please note inc Russian figures are not accurate as IB stopped updating Russian stock prices, but it\u2019s a rough indication\u2026. Figures given exclude Russia<\/p>\n

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Current holdings are below. Last time I posted this I got quite a bit of comment from people who were not familiar with what I do \u2013 mostly this is London listed stocks with a few non UK \/ Romanian \/ Chinese, country is based (mostly) on country of operation not country of listing. I simply dont believe the dominant narative that US tech will take over the world and is the only place to be. Its cost me \u2013 NASDAQ has slaughtered me in performance terms, but will never buy an index on a PE of about 37\u2026.<\/p>\n

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By sector \/ country is below:<\/p>\n

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I am broadly happy with sector \/ country allocation, roughly I limit weights to 10-15% in non-stable countries. I want to be heavily exposed to resources \u2013 all the money is in tech, resource companies are very cheap and earning good returns \/ paying good dividends.\u00a0 As the sector has been underinvested in and has long lead times these returns should persist. \u00a0The only issue is it is reasonably easy for government \/ managements to steal \/ waste these returns and there is a great deal of inherent cyclicality. Little concerned my way of analysing doesnt quite cover all the risk I am taking \u2013 for example Chile ETF counted as country but that country is heavily exposed to commodities.<\/p>\n

I have vaguely considered more tech and had the odd tech investment Playtech PTEC.L (Gambling software) being one.\u00a0 It isn\u2019t right for me though.\u00a0 Company on a PE of 20\/30 with faster growth and maybe a bit of a moat to me just isn\u2019t as appealing as one on a PE of 3-10 \u00a0with minimal growth, even if it isn\u2019t growing as quickly\/ is exposed to natural resource prices, I can vaguely see why people don\u2019t see it that way particularly with companies in commodity sectors but am not tempted to change. Didn\u2019t manage to fully profit from PTEC \u2013 tech seems toppy for me so I reduce \/ sell at the first opportunity.<\/p>\n

I have far too many holdings(47), its difficult to manage and monitor, I will aim to cut back down into the 30s\/40s, having said that some are very similar \u2013 ie various junior gold \/ gold ETFs, uranium \/ junior uranium etc so the number I need to actively monitor is lower. I have noticed some of my smallest weights are by far my worst performing.\u00a0 Only issue is some of these are my cheapest (SQZ\/KIST) and I would like to add on valuation grounds. Past poor performance can rapidly turn around \u2013 Anglo Asian (AAZ.L) was a terrible performer \u2013 down over 50% this time last year \u2013 up 89% this year.<\/p>\n

Best performer was CMC markets (CMCX.L) driven by earnings forecast improvements and a low starting valuation \/ low expectations. I was lucky \/ had the judgement to raise the weight in February before taking it off through the rest of the year \u2013 at its peak it was 216% up rather than a \u2018mere\u2019 140% and I took some off.\u00a0 I don\u2019t believe the current weakness is justified and may raise the weight a bit shortly. I still think it would be a good acquisition target for someone and the tech they have may still be undervalued, but I need to do more work to be sure before I raise the weight.<\/p>\n

My best ideas, and some of the stocks which I have done best in, are in China\/ Hong Kong, I really like my Chinese Pharma basket of 1681.hk, 2877.hk and 915.sz.\u00a0 High margins, low PEs, good yields, good underlying economics \/ growth with the aging Chinese population.\u00a0 China Blue Chemical (3983.hk), Ammonia producer is ridiculously cheap.\u00a0 I would ideally have 30-40% in these sort of stocks but am limited as I don\u2019t want to take a hit if China does something on Taiwan.\u00a0 Want to limit it to 10-15% maximum.\u00a0 I shouldn\u2019t forget $HAUTO in all this \u2013 they do auto shipping, increasingly dominated by Chinese exports.\u00a0 Have done quite well \u2013 up about 17% in the year, plus a 25% dividend, was shaken out a bit due to volatility. Want to raise the China weight a bit \u2013 to about 10-12%. 883.HK deserves a mention \u2013 I exited but made around 70% on the position.<\/p>\n

Nervous about raising the weight in China too much \u2013 I think a Taiwan invasion is a significant possibility, verging on likely and I don\u2019t want another large amount frozen \/seized in the event of invasion. I haven\u2019t been able to work out a good \/cheap way to hedge that risk.<\/p>\n

Russian shares still frozen, haven\u2019t done well any way you want to cut it, if it does pan out have a large amount of dividends coming, likely in a severely depreciated paper currency. None of this\u00a0really matters, future value is dependent on terms of any settlement.\u00a0 Former holding JEMA up 50% over the year (which I got very little of). \u00a0Sold a while back as I couldn\u2019t justify more exposure to Russia with my large amount of already frozen shares. Market seems to be pricing in favourable deal with Trump\u2019s election.\u00a0 It\u2019s a possibility but if you are Putin and are slowly winning militarily \u2013 albeit at the cost of huge human and economic losses wouldn\u2019t you want to push on rather than sign up to a peace deal that you are going to find it very hard to go back on later. I can argue it either way. Tend to believe stopping the war is more risky for Putin than continuing it. Not convinced US\/EU invested enough to really put a stop to it, high degree of uncertainty each way.\u00a0 Remember it was only 2023 when you had a column marching on Moscow.<\/p>\n

Still have quite a bit in Uranium \u2013 again hasn\u2019t done well but not too concerned.\u00a0 Lots more plants being started and in a world with more AI \/ datacentres it\u2019s hard to imagine some form of nuclear won\u2019t be a big part of the future. Happy with my exposure being via URNM, with a little URNJ \u00a0Yellowcake and Kazatomprom.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold has done well for me \u2013 large weight, up around 25%, gold miners haven\u2019t kept pace, surprisingly.\u00a0 Happy to wait this one out, somewhat concerned shareholder unfriendly management \/ bordering on corruption across the sector make them mostly un-investable. Have some in gold mining ETFs but they haven\u2019t done well. Aim is to cut weight in gold as I find better ideas.<\/p>\n

Exited coal \u2013 did OK since I invested a couple of years ago but not convinced bulk commodities are where I want to be longer term.<\/p>\n

Have a few investment managers \u2013 biggest holding by far is ASHM.L \u2013 Ashmore, has assets worth almost the market price \u2013 P\/B of 1.2 \u2013 \u00a3600m excess capital (at least plus about another \u00a3300m in-use but liquidatable assets) vs a market cap of \u00a31.1bn and a business generating c\u00a390m earnings on a bad(ish) year. Earnings can get to \u00a3200m+ on a good year. I also like their strategy and the EM sector they work in but they haven\u2019t actually succeeded in carrying it out. I think that it is worth more than where it is trading.\u00a0 It\u2019s been hit by Trump \/ a stronger USD fears.\u00a0 I am still positive EM, though less so fixed income (which they specialise in). I also hold a bit of Jupiter (JUP.L), and Walker Crips (WCW.L) less convinced by these now (even though I own them) I am tending to own things for the sake of owning them \/ not having cash\/gold, I need to get more \/ better ideas in.<\/p>\n

In terms of other large weight holdings Kurdistan stocks, GKP.L has done OK over the year up 6% plus about 10% yield. GENL.L has done much worse, down 16% over the year and more since I bought it \/raised weight.\u00a0 They have achieved the dubious honour of being one of the few companies to lose a legal case vs the Kurdistan govt. None of this matters really, only thing that will really move these are \u00a0legitimisation of contracts, opening the pipeline and getting debt paid.\u00a0 There appears to be evidence that the legal situation is firming up for what its worth but this is a part of the world where laws are at best loosely applied, and at worst overridden by chaps with guns so I don\u2019t place too much reliance on them. Really like the Kurdistani stocks \u2013 but 10.5% weight is more than enough.<\/p>\n

Investment trusts like Schroder European (SERE.L), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL.L) and Gore street energy (GSF.L) have also done badly \u2013 hit by expectations of higher interest rates. I think they will come back but my timing has been way off. Also a little concerned of correlation with commodities. Schroder European likely to be acquired at some point.<\/p>\n

Bigger resource holdings (CAML.L, IGO.AU, KMR.L, AAZ.L, THS.L) various performances, favourite would be IGO \u2013 very low cost lithium producer, stable jurisdiction lithium appears low as does the stock.\u00a0 I also like Kenmare Resources (KMR.L) but am concerned about the renewal of their \u2018implementation agreement\u2019 which allows them to operate. They say it will all be sorted and it has been before, and management are reliable, but its hard to put much faith in the government of Mozambique.\u00a0 AAZ is improving operationally getting control of more mines but politically Azerbaijian is obviously risky. CAML is operating well, paying off cash at a healthy rate \u2013 11% yield PE of around 8-9.\u00a0 But this isn\u2019t the sort of stock people want to rerate at the moment, there is also concern about them diluting to do an acquisition \u2013 an idea I hate. With all these resource companies its very hard to find one who is sensibly valued, with good margins that isn\u2019t poised to do something irredeemably stupid \/ potentially corrupt with shareholder funds.<\/p>\n

Beximco (BXP.L) had a bit of a scare lately \u2013 it was briefly suspended as the parent group were placed into administration due to alleged fraud. \u00a0There are no links to Beximco Pharma apart from the name, a director and small shareholder.\u00a0 Still I allowed the price to recover before liquidating a bit of my stake at a small loss. I can\u2019t risk a 100% loss at a \u00a0larger weight, even if I believe odds are very low. \u00a0There is always the possibility of some very elaborate fraud taking place, though I think its very unlikely as Beximco is actually a pretty substantial operation and pharma is very highly regulated. Still think it\u2019s a solid company doing well at a significant discount to the local listing.<\/p>\n

Romanian funds Evergent capital and Lion Capital \u2013 still trading at c50% discount to NAV, haven\u2019t done much, 5\/6% dividend yield but a discounted holding of a cheap holding makes them compelling. Considering going back into Fondul Proprietea \u2013 but they are getting rid of their London GDR and holding local Romanian shares is highly tax inefficient for me.<\/p>\n

My best ideas for 2025 are probably gold mining stocks, Chinese pharma and my Kurdistani oil stocks. Kurdistani oil stocks have potential to 2x\/3x if the news flow is accommodating and we get a pipeline reopening and debt repaid \u2013 odds of which look good\u2026<\/p>\n

The aim for 2025 is to radically reshape the portfolio, I want to get out of VOD\/ PHNX \/ Gold and into something I actually have confidence will do well.\u00a0 I would like to \u2018improve\u2019 \u00a0if possible my direct mining investments \u2013 particularly CAML, THS. WCW, SQZ and KIST also on the potential cut list \u2013 less so with SQZ\/ KIST, still think they could turn. Plan to exit PTEC when sale happens and remaining value becomes a bit clearer\u2026 I will also review my Kurdistan oil co\u2019s \u2013 not entirely sure I am in the best stocks given the changing situation. I recon about a third of the portfolio needs a change \u2013 so lots of work to do to come up with better ideas.<\/p>\n

As ever, comments and ideas appreciated.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As ever thought I would do my usual end of year review. Hasn\u2019t been the best of years for me, doing value investment with a skew towards natural resources was pretty much the exact wrong sectors to be in.\u00a0 I am up about 8%, though it honestly feels far, far less, with BTC up 100%+ […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[3767,1636,19479,11237,3749],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-28644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-blog","tag-deep","tag-disappointing","tag-investments","tag-review"],"yoast_head":"\nEnd of 2024 Review -disappointing +8% \u2013 Deep Value Investments Blog - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=28644\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"End of 2024 Review -disappointing +8% \u2013 Deep Value Investments Blog - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As ever thought I would do my usual end of year review. 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