- \n
- Yen expected to be the most volatile<\/strong> in G10 space vs USD<\/li>\n
- Ongoing US-Japan talks<\/strong>, geopolitics <\/strong>& data could rock JPY<\/li>\n
- Over the past year US CPI triggered moves of \u2191 0.7% & \u2193 1.7%<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Bloomberg FX model: USDJPY has 72%<\/strong> of trading within 141.26 \u2013 146.52 over 1-week period<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Technical level: 142.30 & 145.00<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Even as we await the US jobs report later today (Friday, 6 June), investors are keenly aware of the string of key data points over the coming week.<\/h3>\n
The Japanese Yen is expected to be the most volatile G10<\/strong> currency versus the USD over the next one-week.<\/p>\n
\n\nImagen<\/p>\n
![\"JPY](\"https:\/\/www.fxtm.com\/s3-static\/2025-06\/YEN%20IMPLIED.jpg\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nThis could be based on ongoing US-Japan trade talks, geopolitical risk<\/strong> and high-impact economic data.<\/p>\n
And these key data releases from major economies could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead:<\/p>\n
Sunday, 7th June\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
- \n
- CNH: China\u00a0forex reserves<\/li>\n
- EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech<\/li>\n
- JPY: BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida speech<\/li>\n
- Fed\u2019s pre-decision communications blackout<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Monday, 9th June\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
- \n
- CN50: China\u00a0trade, CPI, PPI<\/li>\n
- JPY: Japan\u00a0GDP (final), current account<\/li>\n
- TWN: Taiwan\u00a0trade<\/li>\n
- RUS2000: US\u00a0wholesale inventories<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Tuesday, 10th June\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
- \n
- AUD: Australia\u00a0Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence<\/li>\n
- JPY: Japan\u00a0money stock<\/li>\n
- ZAR: South Africa\u00a0manufacturing<\/li>\n
- GBP: UK\u00a0jobless claims, unemployment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Wednesday, 11th June<\/strong><\/p>\n
- \n
- JPY: Japan\u00a0PPI<\/li>\n
- USDInd: US\u00a0May CPI, federal budget balance<\/li>\n
- GBP: UK government spending review 2025<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Thursday, 12th June<\/strong><\/p>\n
- \n
- UK100: Monthly GDP, UK\u00a0industrial production, trade<\/li>\n
- US500: US\u00a0PPI, jobless claims<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Friday, 13th June<\/strong><\/p>\n
- \n
- EU50: Eurozone\u00a0industrial production<\/li>\n
- GER40: Germany\u00a0CPI<\/li>\n
- JPY: Japan\u00a0tertiary industry, industrial production (final)<\/li>\n
- NZD: New Zealand\u00a0Business manufacturing PMI<\/li>\n
- USDInd: US\u00a0University of Michigan consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
At the time of writing, the Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency versus the USD month-to-date, barely moving against the greenback.<\/p>\n
Indeed, prices have been trapped within a range<\/strong> on the daily timeframe with support at 142.30 and resistance at 145.00.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n\nImagen<\/p>\n
![\"USDJPY](\"https:\/\/www.fxtm.com\/s3-static\/2025-06\/USDJPYDaily.png\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nA breakout could be on the horizon, but this may require a fresh fundamental catalyst.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
Here is what you need to know:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
1) Ongoing US-Japan trade talks<\/h3>\n
Japan and the United States have been engaged in trade talks since mid-April following Trump\u2019s liberation day tariffs.<\/p>\n
The country has been hit with a 25% tariff on autos and parts<\/strong>, a 10% universal tariff that will rise to 24% in early July,<\/strong> in addition to Trump\u2019s 50% tariff on steel and aluminum.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
This week, Japan\u2019s top trade negotiator met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.<\/p>\n
- \n
- Any positive news or signs that a deal could be reached may boost sentiment toward the Japanese economy, supporting the Yen.<\/li>\n
- Should talks drag on with no sign of a deal being reached, this fuel concerns over Japan\u2019s economic outlook \u2013 hitting the Yen as a result.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
2) BoJ deputy governor speech + Japan economic data<\/h3>\n
Over the weekend, a speech by the BoJ deputy governor may provide some clues about future policy moves.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
To be clear, the incoming data from Japan will be the most finalized estimates,<\/strong> so this market reaction may be muted. However, any major upside or downside surprises could spark some action and influence BoJ rate expectations.<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n
Traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis point BoJ hike by the end of 2025.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
3) US May CPI report<\/h3>\n
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) that will be published on Wednesday, 11th June, could influence Fed cut bets.<\/p>\n
Markets are forecasting:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
- \n
- CPI year-on-year (May 2024 vs. May 2025) is expected to rise 2.5% from 2.3%.<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.9% from 2.8%.<\/strong><\/li>\n
- CPI month-on-month (May 2025 vs April 2025) to remain unchanged at 0.2%<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2%<\/strong> in the prior month<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n
Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 1.7% in a 6-hour window post-release.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
- \n
- A hotter-than-expected US CPI print could push the USDJPY highe<\/strong>r as Fed cut bets cool.<\/li>\n
- Should the inflation report print below forecasts, this may drag the USDJPY lower.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n
Traders are currently pricing in 2 Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the odds of a third one at 20%.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
4) Technical forces<\/h4>\n
The USDJPY remains in a range on the daily charts with key support at 142.30 and resistance at 145.00. <\/strong>Prices are trading below the 200, 100 and 50-day SMA.<\/p>\n
- \n
- A breakout and daily close above the 50-day SMA at 144.60,<\/strong> may open a path toward 145.00 and 146.52<\/strong>\u2013 the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.<\/li>\n
- Sustained weakness below 143.00<\/strong> could trigger a selloff back toward support at 142.30 and 141.26<\/strong> \u2013 the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Should the inflation report print below forecasts, this may drag the USDJPY lower.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.9% from 2.8%.<\/strong><\/li>\n
- CPI year-on-year (May 2024 vs. May 2025) is expected to rise 2.5% from 2.3%.<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Ongoing US-Japan talks<\/strong>, geopolitics <\/strong>& data could rock JPY<\/li>\n
![\"USDJPY](\"https:\/\/www.fxtm.com\/s3-static\/2025-06\/USDJPYDaily2.png\")
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