{"id":26692,"date":"2025-01-14T18:13:57","date_gmt":"2025-01-14T18:13:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-january-12-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-01-14T18:13:57","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T18:13:57","slug":"stock-market-outlook-january-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=26692","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 12 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 12th= <span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook shifts to a downtrend, after failing to recover support levels and making lower lows on higher trading volume.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 ( <em>$SPX<\/em> )<\/a> dropped 1.9% last week.\u00a0 The index is ~2% below the 50-day moving average and ~5% above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8608\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8608\" data-attachment-id=\"8608\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/12\/stock-market-outlook-january-12-2025\/2025-01-12-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"1329,990\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-12-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Jan 12 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8608\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"477\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8608\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Jan 12 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The ADX remains bearish, overall trend strength is weak.\u00a0 Institutional activity wasn\u2019t particularly strong, struggling to bounce from the 50-day moving average.\u00a0 During that time, we\u2019ve accumulated enough distribution days (&gt;5) to move this signal from mixed to bearish.\u00a0 On-Balance Volume faded since early December, but remains in bullish territory for now, thanks to the lower trading volumes during the holiday season.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8609\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8609\" data-attachment-id=\"8609\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/12\/stock-market-outlook-january-12-2025\/2025-01-12-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,992\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-12-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 02 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8609\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"478\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8609\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 02 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Energy <em>(\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xle\">$XLE<\/a> )<\/em> was the strongest sector again last week, benefiting from strong performance in oil and gas.\u00a0 Real Estate (<em>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlre\">$XLRE<\/a> )<\/em> led to the downside. Communications, Financials, and Technology, as well as the overall index <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/intermediary\/etfs\/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy\">$SPY<\/a> ),<\/em> fell to a bearish bias.\u00a0 Consumer Discretionary <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xly\">$XLY<\/a> )<\/em> remains in a bullish trend, though that sector\u2019s returns haven\u2019t been positive over the past 4 weeks.\u00a0 Energy provided to \u201cbest\u201d returns during the same span, only down ~3%; real estate was the worst performer, losing ~11%.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8610\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8610\" data-attachment-id=\"8610\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/12\/stock-market-outlook-january-12-2025\/2025-01-12-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1328,994\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-12-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 02 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8610\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"479\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8610\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 02 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>High Beta was last week\u2019s top performer, securing the only positive return.\u00a0 High Dividend led to the downside.\u00a0 High Beta and Momentum fell from Neutral to Bearish; Large Cap and Mega Cap shifted from Bullish to Neutral.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8614\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8614\" data-attachment-id=\"8614\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/12\/stock-market-outlook-january-12-2025\/2025-01-12-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-asset_class_performance-1.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,723\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-12-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each asset class&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 02 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-asset_class_performance-1.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-asset_class_performance-1.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8614\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-asset_class_performance-1.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"349\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8614\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 02 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Oil <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uscfinvestments.com\/uso\">$USO<\/a> )<\/em> led the way higher again last week, edging out Gold <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/intermediary\/etfs\/spdr-gold-shares-gld\">$GLD<\/a> )<\/em>.\u00a0 Bitcoin <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/products\/333011\/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf\">$IBIT<\/a> )<\/em> was the worst performer.\u00a0 Gold jumped from bearish to bullish bias.<\/p>\n<p>Generally speaking, physical commodities have outperformed other asset classes over the past 4-weeks.\u00a0 Within the commodity space, it\u2019s been oil, natural gas, and copper leading the way, while precious metals and agriculture have struggled.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>With the market outlook fell to a downtrend last week, it\u2019s time to drop the zero\u2019s and get with the hero\u2019s in your portfolio.\u00a0 Recent downtrends have been short-lived, and On-Balance Volume gives us some hope this one will be similar.\u00a0 So stick with tickers showing signs of strength right now (higher highs and accumulation); those will be the names that lead the market higher when the latest round of selling ends (i.e. when bullish bias returns).\u00a0 If you haven\u2019t already, consider reducing exposure to tickers that are floundering.<\/p>\n<p>On the Macroeconomic front, December Services PMI showed continued expansion, coming in at 54.1; higher than November and above expectations.\u00a0 November job openings (JOLTs) also increased, beating expectations and an upwardly revised October figure.\u00a0 And December NFP (Non-farm Payrolls) was well above expectations and a lowered November data point.<\/p>\n<p>Remember the stock market is not the economy.\u00a0 They\u2019re related, but not the same.\u00a0 The economy is sum of all economic activity, including the production and consumption of goods and services, and we get updates monthly at best.\u00a0 At worst, data can be revised more than 1 year after the fact.\u00a0 The stock market is collection of equity stakes in publicly traded companies and is updated almost continuously.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The tables above show equities haven\u2019t performed well over the past 4 weeks.\u00a0 We won\u2019t start getting the matching economic data until next later this month.<\/p>\n<p>Most sectors and styles are bearish, and even the ones showing some strength are still in the red.\u00a0 This price action tells us that sellers have been more aggressive than buyers in the equity markets.\u00a0 There are many potential causes of this behavior; most of them are interrelated.\u00a0 For example, some may expect weak earnings and guidance because of a strong dollar, higher interest rates, higher commodity prices, and\/or the potential impact of higher tariffs across the globe.\u00a0 Earnings season starts this Wednesday with reports from large financial firms ($JPM, $C, $WFC)\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Whatever the cause, you want to put your money to work when conditions are favorable for future gains:\u00a0 higher highs and higher lows in price (ADX and Bias) , caused by institutions accumulating shares and capital inflows (Institutional Activity and On-Balance Volume).\u00a0\u00a0 In the recent past, downtrends have been short-lived, so we could see better conditions next month, next week, or even tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>This week, we get the latest retail sales and inflation (Producer and Consumer Price Index) numbers.<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 12th= Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifts to a downtrend, after failing to recover support levels and making lower lows on higher trading volume. The S&amp;P500 ( $SPX ) dropped 1.9% last week.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26693,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[3805,11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-26692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-january","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 12 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=26692\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 12 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 12th= Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifts to a downtrend, after failing to recover support levels and making lower lows on higher trading volume. 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Som2ny Network","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=26692","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 12 2025 - Som2ny Network","og_description":"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 12th= Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifts to a downtrend, after failing to recover support levels and making lower lows on higher trading volume. 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