When Donald Trump was re-elected president in November 2024, expectations were widespread that Israel\u2019s assault on Gaza would intensify, and that the incoming administration would take a much more active role in neutralizing Tel Aviv\u2019s regional adversaries. The affinity between Benjamin Netanyahu, many Israelis, and Trump is well-established. As Foreign Policy\u00a0noted<\/a>\u00a0in October 2024, \u201cIsrael is Trump country, and Trump\u2019s No. 1 supporter is its prime minister,\u201d the magazine wrote. Trump\u2019s victory was widely\u00a0celebrated<\/a>\u00a0in Israel, both publicly and at the state level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just days later, former CIA Director and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta\u00a0predicted<\/a>\u00a0the president would give Netanyahu a \u201cblank check\u201d to cause havoc across the Middle East, up to all-out war with Iran. After taking office in January, the president did little to dispel such forecasts\u2014quite the opposite. In February, Trump\u00a0outlined<\/a>\u00a0plans for \u201cGaza Lago\u201d\u2014a total displacement and forced resettlement of Gaza\u2019s Palestinian population and the creation of a so-called \u201cRiviera of the Middle East\u201d in its place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In March, Trump\u00a0renewed hostilities<\/a>\u00a0against Yemen\u2019s Ansar Allah, after the group reinstated its Red Sea blockade in response to Israel\u2019s flagrant breaches of its cease-fire agreement with Hamas. Battering Yemen\u00a0far harder<\/a>\u00a0than Biden ever had, U.S. officials\u00a0boasted<\/a>\u00a0that the air and naval effort against Ansar Allah would continue \u201cindefinitely.\u201d Trump also claimed that Washington\u2019s \u201crelentless strikes\u201d\u00a0would leave<\/a>\u00a0the resistance decimated.<\/p> In early May, however,\u00a0Trump declared<\/a>\u00a0the mission over after agreeing to a cease-fire under which Ansar Allah would stop targeting U.S. ships in return for free rein in its war against Israel. Tel Aviv was reportedly kept out of the loop,\u00a0learning<\/a>\u00a0of the deal via news reports. Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel,\u00a0responded<\/a>\u00a0to backlash over the deal by stating that the U.S. \u201cisn\u2019t required to get permission from Israel\u201d to make deals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Huckabee, an ultraconservative evangelical and outspoken Zionist who\u00a0vowed<\/a>\u00a0upon his nomination to refer to Israel in biblical terms such as the \u201cPromised Land<\/a>,\u201d and who has frequently claimed that Jews hold a \u201crightful deed\u201d to Palestinian land, surprised observers with the statement. Yet it seemed to mark the beginning of a dramatic shift in direction by the Trump administration, which, as MintPress News has\u00a0previously documented<\/a>, is stacked with pro-Israel hawks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since then, Trump has embarked on a tour of the Middle East, with Israel\u00a0conspicuously absent<\/a>\u00a0from his itinerary. Instead, he has traveled to states in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Meanwhile, the president\u00a0negotiated<\/a>\u00a0the release of the last living U.S. hostage held by Hamas and convened direct\u00a0peace talks<\/a>\u00a0with the resistance group\u2014in both cases\u00a0without<\/a>\u00a0Tel Aviv\u2019s involvement. There are\u00a0rumors<\/a>\u00a0that Hamas may end hostilities in return for U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state, an offer Trump is reportedly open to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Negotiations with Iran over a new nuclear deal have been underway since Trump took office. On May 15, it was\u00a0widely reported<\/a>\u00a0that the two sides were finally on the verge of reaching an agreement. Once again, Israel was apparently entirely\u00a0excluded\u00a0<\/a>from these talks, and any accord that does result will likely not take into account Tel Aviv\u2019s bellicose stance toward Iran. In a\u00a0remarkable speech<\/a>\u00a0in Riyadh on May 13, Trump appeared to backtrack on decades of American policy in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Successive U.S. administrations have considered normalization of relations between all Arab and Muslim states\u2014particularly Saudi Arabia\u2014and Israel a\u00a0paramount objective<\/a>\u00a0to the extent of making continued U.S. defense guarantees to Riyadh contingent upon its recognition of Tel Aviv. However, Trump explicitly deprioritized this goal, saying that while he hoped the Saudis would eventually sign the\u00a0Abraham Accords<\/a>, he understood the current context made it unfeasible and added, \u201cYou\u2019ll do it in your own time.\u201d He mentioned Israel only once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Washington went on to\u00a0sign<\/a>\u00a0a slew of deals with Riyadh across various sectors, including the largest-ever defense agreement between the two countries, valued at nearly $142 billion. In sum, a string of seismic developments strongly suggests that Trump\u2019s administration is breaking with the previously unshakable U.S. policy of lockstep support for Israel and serving its interests in nearly every regard\u2014an arrangement in place since the country\u2019s founding in 1948. But is this previously unthinkable rupture real, or just for show?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Purported rifts in the U.S.-Israel relationship are nothing new. Throughout Barack Obama\u2019s presidency, multiple\u00a0mainstream reports<\/a>\u00a0suggested the relationship was \u201cstrained,\u201d especially due to sharp personal differences between the then-president and Netanyahu. Similarly, from the start of the Gaza genocide, major news outlets intermittently\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0that Joe Biden was \u201cprivately\u201d angry with Netanyahu\u2019s behavior. Meanwhile, White House spokespeople and prominent Democrats, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, publicly\u00a0insisted<\/a>\u00a0that the administration was committed to securing a cease-fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In both cases, though, the U.S. financial and military aid that is fundamental to Israel\u2019s continued existence and erasure of the Palestinian people continued unabated, if not increased. In late April, Israel\u2019s ambassador to Washington, Michael Herzog, who served from 2021 to 2025, proudly\u00a0declared<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cthe [Biden] administration never came to us and said, \u2018Cease-fire now.\u2019 It never did.\u201d As such, skepticism about the sincerity and substance of the Trump administration\u2019s abrupt break from its traditionally pro-Israel trajectory is well-founded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of\u00a0Gulf State Analytics<\/a>, tells MintPress News that there may be a real shift underway in U.S. foreign policy, driven in large part by Trump\u2019s determination to counter China\u2019s rising global influence, particularly in the Middle East. It is this agenda that, for now, is pushing Washington to conduct \u201ca foreign policy increasingly friendly to deep-pocketed states on the Arabian Peninsula, at the expense of the historic U.S.-Israel alignment.\u201d As Cafiero put it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump wants to pull Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE et al closer to U.S. geopolitical and geo-economic influence, while pulling them away from China to some extent. He likely won\u2019t have much success in slowing down the momentum of Arab-Chinese relations in energy, investment, trade, logistics, commerce, AI, digitization, and so on. But in terms of defense and security, the U.S. will continue to dominate, and Trump will make clear these are uncrossable \u2018red lines\u2019 in terms of the Gulf\u2019s relationship with China from Washington\u2019s perspective.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Trump\u2019s large trade and investment deals with Gulf states play heavily into his \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d agenda and self-mythologizing as a dealmaker at home and abroad. The Gulf states are \u201cripe for lucrative deals\u201d for U.S. companies, Cafiero says, adding that these agreements will create jobs and generate \u201cgood optics\u201d for the administration at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Geopolitical risk analyst\u00a0Firas Modad<\/a>\u00a0agrees that economic factors are central to Trump\u2019s current course shift, and are alienating Tel Aviv. \u201cTrump needs to sell F-35s. The U.S. defense industry needs the funds. The sale of F-35s to Turkey and perhaps to Saudi Arabia\u2026 a new deal with Iran, a Saudi civilian nuclear program \u2014 these will all be big bones of contention with Israel,\u201d Modad said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf nuclear negotiations succeed, Trump will likely seek to open Iranian markets to U.S. firms too. Israel doesn\u2019t want this either. Trump is showing Netanyahu how much Israel needs the U.S., not the other way around.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a Tehran-based political analyst and professor at the University of Tehran, tells MintPress News that a \u201crift\u201d between the U.S. and Israel does indeed exist, but that it is \u201cdifficult to say how significant or deep it truly is.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Marandi believes the broader U.S. power structure recognizes that its support for what he calls the \u201cGaza Holocaust\u201d since October 2023\u2014\u201ca 24\/7 televised genocide\u201d\u2014has seriously damaged the West\u2019s international image and soft power, telling MintPress News that \u201cBy default, this has greatly enhanced the soft power of China, Iran and Russia. The Global South looks to them, not the U.S. or its European vassals, for leadership, direction and partnership.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Modad agrees, noting that in March 2023, Saudi Arabia unexpectedly\u00a0reconciled<\/a>\u00a0with Iran \u201cunder Chinese auspices, without meaningful consultation with Washington.\u201d Now that Arab and Muslim states view China and Russia as viable economic and military partners, the prospect of political scientist Samuel P. Huntington\u2019s \u201cSino-Islamic alliance<\/a>\u201d becoming a reality is increasingly likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Americans will do whatever it takes to avoid resource-rich or militarily capable Muslim countries falling into Beijing\u2019s orbit, even if that\u2019s at Israel\u2019s expense,\u201d Modad tells MintPress News.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Marandi sees potential for shifts in U.S. relations with the region, saying \u201cthe space is there for progress\u201d\u2014though such progress remains \u201climited in scope and purely prospective for now.\u201d He believes the current divide between Washington and Tel Aviv is largely tied to Netanyahu\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere\u2019s a chance he\u2019ll be sacrificed to preserve and rehabilitate Israel\u2019s image internationally, with blame for everything since October 7 placed squarely on him,\u201d Marandi says. \u201cIt would be like blaming Hitler alone for World War II and the Holocaust, instead of the system he led and everyone who enabled it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Marandi doubts a broader U.S.-Israel split will occur, saying the relationship is \u201cso substantial, it\u2019s not going to completely wither and die\u201d over current events. \u201cThe Zionist lobby in the U.S. remains very powerful,\u201d Marandi notes, adding that while Israel \u201chas been discredited worldwide and is internationally despised, with people across the West condemning and abhorring the Zionist regime, the lobby still exerts enormous influence over Washington\u2019s domestic and foreign policy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Modad is likewise under no illusions about the Israeli lobby\u2019s clout in Washington. He expects its affiliated groups\u2014and the many lawmakers they generously fund\u2014to aggressively push back against Trump\u2019s shift. He also suggests the administration could respond to the pressure by forcing the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) to register as a foreign agent. Given AIPAC\u2019s political clout, such a move would be unprecedented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n U.S. political scientist John Mearsheimer has\u00a0described<\/a>\u00a0AIPAC as \u201ca de facto agent for a foreign government\u201d with \u201ca stranglehold on Congress.\u201d Indeed, the powerful lobbying organization has a disturbing success rate in helping to elect hardcore proponents of\u00a0 Israel to Congress and the Senate, and aggressively works to unseat anyone on Capitol Hill who expresses solidarity with Palestinians. This effort has only intensified since October 7, and the organization is so confident in its impunity that it\u00a0openly advertises<\/a>\u00a0its activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, AIPAC publishes an annual report highlighting its \u201cpolicy and political achievements.\u201d The committee\u2019s\u00a02022 report<\/a>\u00a0boasts, among other things, of securing $3.3 billion \u201cfor security assistance to Israel, with no added conditions\u201d and funding \u201cpro-Israel candidates\u201d to the tune of $17.5 million\u2014the most of any U.S. PAC. A staggering 98% of those candidates went on to win, defeating 13 pro-Palestinian challengers in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump is not unaware of the Israel lobby\u2019s outsized influence over U.S. domestic and foreign affairs. As Marandi notes, on Jan. 15, Trump\u00a0shared a video<\/a>\u00a0of Professor Jeffrey Sachs in which he blames Benjamin Netanyahu for the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq\u2014a war that Trump has\u00a0long criticized<\/a>. The crucial role that AIPAC and its allies played in laying the groundwork for that war has largely been forgotten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s likely due in part to the organization\u2019s large-scale online\u00a0cleanup operations<\/a>\u00a0in which evidence of their early cheerleading for a full-scale U.S. invasion of Iraq was quietly erased. In December 2001, AIPAC published a\u00a0briefing<\/a>\u00a0for U.S. lawmakers on the \u201cmajor threat\u201d it claimed that Saddam Hussein posed in the Middle East, to U.S. interests in the region and to \u201cIsrael\u2019s security\u201d\u2014accusing him of producing weapons of mass destruction and harboring terrorist organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both claims were false, forming the basis of Washington\u2019s case for the invasion. AIPAC later removed the briefing from its website. In 2015, a committee spokesperson\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0The New York Times that \u201cAIPAC took no position whatsoever on the Iraq War.\u201d Later that year, AIPAC President Robert A. Cohen went even further,\u00a0claiming<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cLeading up to the start of the Iraq War in March 2003, AIPAC took no position whatsoever, nor did we lobby on the issue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, Israel and its lobbying network are pushing for another major conflict in the Middle East\u2014this time with Iran. In April, The New York Times, citing anonymous briefings,\u00a0revealed<\/a>\u00a0that Tel Aviv had drawn up detailed plans for an attack on the Islamic Republic that would have required U.S. support\u2014plans that were reportedly waved off by Trump. Israeli officials were said to be furious over the leak, with one\u00a0calling<\/a>\u00a0it \u201cone of the most dangerous leaks in Israel\u2019s history.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n While Tel Aviv is purportedly\u00a0still planning<\/a>\u00a0a \u201climited attack\u201d on Iran, The New York Times report sent an unambiguous message to Netanyahu and his government that the Trump administration would not support any such action under any circumstances. Opposition to belligerence towards Tehran is in itself quite an extraordinary reversal for Trump and his cabinet, given their past rhetoric and stances. Before even taking office, it\u00a0was reported<\/a>\u00a0that the administration was concocting plans to \u201cbankrupt Iran\u201d with \u201cmaximum pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who had\u00a0long called<\/a>\u00a0for tightening already devastating sanctions on Tehran, was at the forefront of this push. He was eagerly supported by National Security Adviser\u00a0Mike Waltz<\/a>, a Pentagon veteran who previously sat on the House Armed Services Committee. At an event convened by NATO adjunct the Atlantic Council in October 2024,\u00a0Waltz bragged<\/a>\u00a0about how Trump had previously almost destroyed the Islamic Republic\u2019s currency, and looked ahead to doling out even worse punishment following the president\u2019s inauguration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the reportedly positive progress of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran today suggests Trump and his team have not only jettisoned these ambitions but are determined to avoid war. Cafiero believes this objective is one of the key geopolitical considerations driving the President\u2019s current course in the Middle East. He notes such a conflict would inevitably be \u201cmessy, bloody, and costly,\u201d and believes Netanyahu\u2019s determination \u201cto pull the U.S. into war\u201d means Trump now sees Israel as a real liability:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump views West Asia as a region the U.S. has historically been sucked into, and he believes Washington shouldn\u2019t be excessively entangled there anymore \u2013 no more costly and humiliating quagmires, diverting resources and attention away from other parts of the world, where China is making major economic and geopolitical gains. The Gulf monarchies are sources of regional stability \u2013 they\u2019re diplomatic bridges and interlocutors, facilitating dialogue and negotiation, and assisting in winding down local and international conflicts, or at least U.S. involvement in them.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n![](\"https:\/\/www.activistpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/David-Avocado-Wolfe-Logo.png\"\/){kind=logo}
<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\nTrump Snubs Israel in Middle East Pivot<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Gulf States Rise as Israel Loses Clout<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
AIPAC Faces White House Resistance<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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