{"id":246946,"date":"2025-05-19T08:17:38","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T08:17:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/irregular-roundup-1st-july-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T08:17:38","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T08:17:38","slug":"irregular-roundup-1st-july-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=246946","title":{"rendered":"Irregular Roundup, 1st July 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>We begin today\u2019s Irregular Roundup with the US labour market.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"US_Labour_market\">US Labour market<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/John-Authers.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"2066215624\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/John-Authers.jpg\" alt=\"John Authers\" width=\"258\" height=\"196\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-230\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/John-Authers.jpg\" alt=\"John Authers\" width=\"258\" height=\"196\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>John Authers looked at the impact of US employment data on the prospects for rate cuts.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Numbers showing a weakening manufacturing sector, declining job vacancies and reduced increase in unit labor costs all were consistent with a narrative that the Fed\u2019s higher <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Charge paid by borrower to lender for the use of money.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/interest\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">interest<\/a> rates are at last beginning to have an impact on employment.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So, good news.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1638667670\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43772\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles-300x175.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43772\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles-300x175.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Employment-costs-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Then came Friday\u2019s announcement of non-farm payrolls for May, revealing that the number of people in employment had increased by more than even the highest estimate.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Bad news.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"673333092\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43773\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles-300x180.png\" alt=\"Firm payrolls (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43773\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles-300x180.png\" alt=\"Firm payrolls (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Firm-payrolls-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As reflected in the <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Debt instrument issued by a government or company to raise money; pays regular interest with the original capital returned at maturity.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/bond\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">bond<\/a> market.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1548622114\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43774\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles-300x175.png\" alt=\"10 year Treasury yields (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43774\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles-300x175.png\" alt=\"10 year Treasury yields (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/10-year-Treasury-yields-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This week we get CPI numbers and a new dot plot from the Fed Open Market Committee.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The consensus is for a reduction from three to two rate cuts in 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But that will depend on the data.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"AI_for_active_management\">AI for active management<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"513726010\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-28171\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg\" alt=\"Joachim Klement\" width=\"300\" height=\"270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-24x22.jpg 24w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-36x32.jpg 36w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-48x43.jpg 48w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-350x315.jpg 350w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-28171\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg\" alt=\"Joachim Klement\" width=\"300\" height=\"270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-24x22.jpg 24w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-36x32.jpg 36w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-48x43.jpg 48w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-350x315.jpg 350w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement.jpg 400w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Joachim Klement remains in good form, and this week he looked at how <a href=\"https:\/\/klementoninvesting.substack.com\/p\/active-managers-get-competition-from\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">AI is coming for active management<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Active management \u2013 although a losing game on average \u2013 depends on the interpretation of qualitative information.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A new study trained a natural language processing model to analyse US company reports (the Management Discussion &amp; Analysis section we\u2019ve mentioned previously).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The AI looked at profitability and ranked firms after correcting for the Fama-French five factors (market risk, value, size, investment intensity, and profitability).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"2003160092\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43767\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles-300x205.png\" alt=\"AI and profitabilty (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43767\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles-300x205.png\" alt=\"AI and profitabilty (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/AI-and-profitabilty-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It looks like the AI did a pretty good job.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"ESG_bubble\">ESG bubble<\/span><\/h6>\n<p>Joachim\u2019s second article looked at <a href=\"https:\/\/klementoninvesting.substack.com\/p\/good-stories-lead-to-bubbles-and\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">the ESG bubble<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>He referenced a 2023 paper using a simulated stock market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">People trade with each other in an artificial <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Anything that has a \u00a0monetary value (e.g. property, investments, cash).&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/asset\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">asset<\/a>. Typically, the <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Anything that has a \u00a0monetary value (e.g. property, investments, cash).&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/asset\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">asset<\/a> pays a dividend in each round of the trading game but is worthless at the end of the game.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As in the real world, the dividend comes out of the stock\u2019s value.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Yet people regularly trade shares at prices well above fundamental value and often create share price bubbles that then burst a few rounds before the game ends.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The recent paper split the subject into three groups:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>the company being traded was described as \u201cparticularly good on the sustainability front\u201d<\/li>\n<li>the company was described as bad for sustainability<\/li>\n<li>the company was presented as neutral<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"253767043\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43770\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles-300x221.png\" alt=\"ESG narrative and share prices (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles-300x221.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43770\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles-300x221.png\" alt=\"ESG narrative and share prices (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles-300x221.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/ESG-narrative-and-share-prices-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">On average, sustainable stocks traded at higher prices for longer and then crashed harder than stocks with a poor sustainability performance or neutral stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The researchers also found that the more the subjects had personal values aligned with ESG and sustainability, the larger the bubble.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Groups with a higher proportion of women also produced bigger bubbles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Joachim also notes that whilst \u201cbrown\u201d stocks avoided the bubbles of \u201cgreen\u201d stocks, they did this by trading at consistently lower prices, which is also not great for investors.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Narratives matter. A positive, emotionally uplifting narrative about a stock helps increase its share price while negative stories suppress share prices. Just look at the current AI boom.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h6><span id=\"Retiring_abroad\">Retiring abroad<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1586355765\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-22331\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-241x300.jpg\" alt=\"Moira O'Neill\" width=\"241\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-241x300.jpg 241w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-19x24.jpg 19w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-29x36.jpg 29w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-38x48.jpg 38w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell.jpg 320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 241px) 100vw, 241px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-22331\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-241x300.jpg\" alt=\"Moira O'Neill\" width=\"241\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-241x300.jpg 241w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-19x24.jpg 19w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-29x36.jpg 29w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell-38x48.jpg 38w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Moira-ONiell.jpg 320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 241px) 100vw, 241px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For the FT, Moira O\u2019Neill wrote about how <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8b4570a9-34e1-4bb8-a29b-29c9c8219719\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">it\u2019s becoming more difficult to retire abroad<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>According to Moira:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Nearly three in five wealthy individuals in the UK are already considering relocating abroad, the main reason being a desire for an improved standard of living. Wealth managers report most <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Charge paid by borrower to lender for the use of money.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/interest\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">interest<\/a> in Spain, France, Italy and Portugal.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Portugal was top of my list when it looked like Corbyn could become PM, but I think the recent socialist government closed the tax break for UK pensioners.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Spain also plans to retire its golden visa, which was on offer to anyone spending \u20ac500K on a property.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Moira also highlights problems with withdrawing money without a UK bank account (which usually means a UK address).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>And she points out that in Spain, France and Portugal, children and grandchildren get prescribed portions of your estate, whatever is in your will.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Post-Brexit, Annuities are no longer available to those living abroad.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>And issues around the abolition of the LTA mean that transfers to foreign pension schemes (QROPS) are on hold for now.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>One bit of good news is that the government is making it easier to shed UK domicile, which means that those who have lived abroad for more than ten years won\u2019t be subject to UK inheritance tax (subject to a change of government, of course).<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"LTA_watch\">LTA watch<\/span><\/h6>\n<p>Labour \u2013 or possibly just Rachel Reeves and Kier Starmer \u2013 have decided that bringing back the LTA on pensions is too much trouble.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This is great news \u2013 we already have an annual contribution allowance, so having an output cap as well just makes planning very difficult and disincentivises saving for retirement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In any case, the cap on the tax-free cash lump sum at \u00a3268K already penalises large pension pots.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>And there\u2019s no guarantee that Labour won\u2019t reduce that further.<\/li>\n<li>Or perhaps they will bring in a lifetime cap on contributions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What they should do is increase the mandatory contribution levels into workplace pensions from 8% to at least 15%.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I don\u2019t expect to see this in the manifesto.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr\/>\n<p>Labour (and the OBR) had previously claimed that bringing back the LAT would raise \u00a3800M in tax (though the latest figures for 2021-21 showed that \u201conly\u201d \u00a3440M in penalties were paid, by 11,000 people).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Now they say that this \u00a3800M had not been allocated to Labour\u2019s spending plans, so no alternative tax will be needed to fill a \u201cblack hole\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It seems to be protests from the doctors \u2013 or possibly the optics around a carve out solely for doctors \u2013 that have persuaded the Shadow Cabinet.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The scrapping will raise fears that Reeves will resuscitate her old plan for flat-rate relief of 30% or 33% for all pension contributions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A more likely target to me is the IHT exemption for pensions (as well as the IHT exemption for AIM shares), though a 30% flat rate of relief would be workable.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A lower annual allowance also seems probable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For Hargreaves Lansdown, Helen Morrissey said:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The game of lifetime allowance hokey cokey looks to have finally drawn to a close. <\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The news will be greeted with a sigh of relief by people who can now plan ahead for their futures with more certainty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The lifetime allowance affects more than just ultra-high net worth people. It could be an issue for many who have saved diligently for their future. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Any reform of the pension tax system should be done with the aim that people are\u00a0 properly incentivised to save for their futures without having to worry about being tripped up by complex rules.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>For AJ Bell, Tom Selby said:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Labour deserves credit for rowing back. The policy would have risked hitting senior public servants, including doctors, with huge tax bills, added unwelcome complexity to the pensions tax system and unfairly penalised those who enjoy strong investment growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Any pension tax reform taken forward by the next Governmentshould focus squarely on simplification and encouraging more people tosave for the long-term.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h6><span id=\"Tory_watch\">Tory watch<\/span><\/h6>\n<p>I only spotted a few tax policies in the Tory Manifesto:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>No stamp duty for first-time buyers up to a \u00a3425K limit\n<ul>\n<li>That limit is not much use in London, and stamp duty needs to be abolished in order to free up the property market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Another 2% off NI<\/li>\n<li>A pensioner tax-free allowance to ensure the State Pension doesn\u2019t tip you into taxation<\/li>\n<li>A beefed-up Help to Buy scheme (which Labour is also offering) plus a loophole where landlords selling to tenants could avoid tax on profits.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>It\u2019s not very radical, or even particularly Tory.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"Stamp_Duty\">Stamp Duty<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1586742043\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-39452\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle-257x300.jpg\" alt=\"Dan Neidle\" width=\"257\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle-257x300.jpg 257w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-39452\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle-257x300.jpg\" alt=\"Dan Neidle\" width=\"257\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle-257x300.jpg 257w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Dan-Neidle.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dan Neidle from Tax Policy Associate had a plan for <a href=\"https:\/\/taxpolicy.org.uk\/2024\/06\/09\/stamp_duty_terrible_how_to_abolish\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">abolishing stamp duty without pushing up house prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Of course, his answer was to get rid of both stamp duty and council tax and replace them with a land tax.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Stamp duty land tax (SDLT) reduces transactions, distorts the housing market, and often stops people moving.(because the stamp duty is \u201clost value\u201d). It reduces labour mobility, results in inefficient use of land, and plausibly holds back economic growth. It also makes people miserable.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I agree with all of that.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Unfortunately, it raises \u00a312 bn pa.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Dan\u2019s idea that abolition would lead to higher prices comes from the impact of previous stamp duty holidays.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I would expect that the SDLT gap would be filled by buyers and sellers agreeing on a price in the middle (between the total cost to the buyer and what the seller actually receives).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Which would mean prices increasing by half of the amount of SLDT. But the evidence from Australia suggests otherwise:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">A\u00a0detailed Australian study looked at longer-term changes than the recent UK \u201cholidays\u201d \u2013 it found that\u00a0all\u00a0the incidence of stamp duty changes fell on sellers (and therefore prices). This is what we\u2019d expect in a market that\u2019s constrained by supply of houses.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I think this applies more at the bottom end of the market than the top, where things will always be constrained (there are only so many houses by the sea, or in Mayfair).<\/p>\n<p>But Dan\u2019s point is that stamp duty cuts would help sellers rather than the first-time buyers they are aimed at.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p>Dan\u2019s criticisms of council tax are:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>It tops out at 1991 values of \u00a3320K (around \u00a32M today), and<\/li>\n<li>The top band only pays triple the bottom band<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>I\u2019m fine with things as they are because property is so expensive in the UK (particularly in London).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Massively increasing council tax would cause serious problems for a lot of pensions living in terraced houses that are worth ten times what they were thirty years ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There is a problem that rates vary according to council spending, and so are often higher in poorer areas.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The really courageous answer is to scrap council tax, business rates and stamp duty \u2013 that\u2019s about \u00a380bn altogether \u2013 and replace them all with \u201cland value tax\u201d (LVT). <\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">LVT is an annual tax on the unimproved value of land, residential and commercial \u2013 probably the rate would be somewhere between 0.5% and 1% of current market values.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>One per cent of the value of my house would be around ten times the council tax I currently pay, so I\u2019m not sure how Dan proposes to implement this.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"Quick_Links\">Quick Links<\/span><\/h6>\n<p>I have just one for you this week:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Alpha Architect looked at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/UKFinanceOver30\/comments\/1dqnc4a\/smart_rebalancing_for_factor_strategies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Smart rebalancing for factor strategies<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Until next time.<\/p>\n<div id=\"author-bio-box\" style=\"background: #f8f8f8; border-top: 2px solid #cccccc; border-bottom: 2px solid #cccccc; color: #4609ff\">\n<h3><a style=\"color: #555555;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/author\/mikerawson\/\" title=\"All posts by Mike Rawson\" rel=\"author\">Mike Rawson<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"bio-gravatar\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-del=\"avatar\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Author-pic-fix-150x150.jpg\" class=\"avatar pp-user-avatar avatar-100 photo \" height=\"100\" width=\"100\"\/><\/div>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-website\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/7-Circles-425914570895193\/\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-facebook\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-twitter\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/+The7circlesUk_DIY_investor\/posts\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-googleplus\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/mike-rawson-700897ab\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-linkedin\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/uk.pinterest.com\/miker0992\/\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-pinterest\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"bio-description\">Mike is the owner of 7 Circles, and a private investor living in London. &#13;<br \/>\n&#13;<br \/>\nHe has been managing his own money for 40 years, with some success.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>          <!--\/.pagination-->\n        <\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We begin today\u2019s Irregular Roundup with the US labour market. US Labour market John Authers looked at the impact of US employment data on the prospects for rate cuts. Numbers showing a weakening manufacturing sector, declining job vacancies and reduced increase in unit labor costs all were consistent with a narrative that the Fed\u2019s higher [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":246947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[6711,10699,5762,4098],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-246946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-1st","tag-irregular","tag-july","tag-roundup"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Irregular Roundup, 1st July 2024 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=246946\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Irregular Roundup, 1st July 2024 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We begin today\u2019s Irregular Roundup with the US labour market. 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