{"id":246842,"date":"2025-05-19T07:00:27","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T07:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-may-18-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T07:00:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T07:00:27","slug":"stock-market-outlook-may-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=246842","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 May 18 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 18th = <span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, as equities rallied out of a short consolidation.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 <em>( $SPX )<\/em><\/a> gained 5.3% last week.\u00a0 The index sits ~7% above the 50-day moving average and ~3% above the 200-day moving average, roughly the same position as last Sunday.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8915\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8915\" data-attachment-id=\"8915\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/18\/stock-market-outlook-may-18-2025\/2025-05-18-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"1329,990\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-18-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for May 18 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8915\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"477\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8915\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for May 18 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>All three technical indicators are bullish. The Direction Indicator <em>( ADX )<\/em> flipped on the gap higher Monday.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8914\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8914\" data-attachment-id=\"8914\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/18\/stock-market-outlook-may-18-2025\/2025-05-18-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,949\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-18-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 21 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8914\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"458\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8914\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 21 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Technology <em>( $XLK )<\/em> led the way last week, up an amazing 8%.\u00a0 Healthcare <em>( $XLV )<\/em> was the worst sector again.\u00a0 Consumer Staples <em>( $XLP )<\/em> and Energy <em>( $XLE )<\/em> jumped up to bullish, leaving Healthcare <em>( $XLV )<\/em> as the lone bearish sector<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8916\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8916\" data-attachment-id=\"8916\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/18\/stock-market-outlook-may-18-2025\/2025-05-18-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1321,956\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-18-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 21 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8916\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"463\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8916\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 21 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>High Beta <em>( $SPHB )<\/em> was the best style again last week, and is up 14% since turning bullish. The lowest performer was Low Beta <em>( $SPLV )<\/em> with a 1.5% gain.\u00a0\u00a0Mega-cap Growth, Small and Mid-cap Value, Quality and high Dividend <em>( $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ,<\/em><em> $QUAL, $SPHD )<\/em> all improved to bullish bias.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8913\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8913\" data-attachment-id=\"8913\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/18\/stock-market-outlook-may-18-2025\/2025-05-18-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-asset_class_performance.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,704\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-18-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for various asset classes&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 21 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-asset_class_performance.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8913\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-18-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8913\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 21 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>U.S. Equities <em>( $SPY )<\/em> led assets higher.\u00a0 Gold <em>( $GLD )<\/em> was the worst performer.\u00a0 In terms of bias, U.S. bonds continue to weaken on higher interest rates, pushing $IEF down into bearish bias.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>Equity indexes gapped higher on the open Monday, in response to the U.S. and China trade deal details, and closed higher every session.\u00a0 The only downside is that stocks are back in overbought territory!<\/p>\n<p>Consumer Price data shows headline inflation fell in April, while core remained flat; price increases from tariffs haven\u2019t made their way through supply chains yet.\u00a0 On top of those data points, both measures had their March figures revised lower as well.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>CPI (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.3%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.4%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.4%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>As far as producers were concerned <em>( PPI )<\/em> , headline and core fell in April.\u00a0 But, as expected, March data was revised significantly higher <em>( +0.7% for both headline and core )<\/em>.\u00a0 I\u2019d expect the impact of tariffs to start showing up in May and June readings, but only slightly due to the pauses put in place.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>PPI (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.4%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.4%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.1%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+4.0%*<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.1%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>After market\u2019s closed on Friday, Moody\u2019s downgraded the United States credit rating, from Aaa to Aa1, citing growing government debt. There was a lot of ink\/electrons spilled over the weekend on the subject, but the decision is inline with earlier decisions by the 2 other rating agencies: Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s downgraded the U.S. in August 2011, and Fitch in August 2023. All 3 still give the U.S. their 2nd highest rating. In terms of a market response, the initial reaction probably sends rates higher and equities\/bonds lower in the pre-market session.<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 18th = Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0Uptrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Uptrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, as equities rallied out of a short consolidation. The S&amp;P500 ( $SPX ) gained 5.3% last week.\u00a0 The index sits ~7% above [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":246843,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-246842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 May 18 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=246842\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 May 18 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 18th = Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0Uptrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Uptrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, as equities rallied out of a short consolidation. 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