{"id":23587,"date":"2025-01-12T00:55:44","date_gmt":"2025-01-12T00:55:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/a-contrarians-wet-dream-capitalist-exploits\/"},"modified":"2025-01-12T00:55:44","modified_gmt":"2025-01-12T00:55:44","slug":"a-contrarians-wet-dream-capitalist-exploits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=23587","title":{"rendered":"A contrarian\u2019s wet dream? \u2013 Capitalist Exploits"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

\"\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa\"<\/b>\u00a0FRANCE IS THE NEW GREECE<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The following headline from Europe grabbed our eyeballs a few days ago:<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

A few key excerpts from the article:<\/p>\n

\n

France\u2019s borrowing costs have risen above those of Greece for the first time, as investors fret that Michel Barnier\u2019s government could fail to pass a belt-tightening budget.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

Thursday\u2019s moves underscore how investors are reclassifying Paris as one of the Eurozone\u2019s riskier borrowers.<\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

Greek bond yields have also fallen markedly as the country\u2019s economy has recovered since its bailout during the 2012 crisis. Last year, Athens\u2019 credit rating was lifted to investment grade for the first time.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Funny how the tables have turned. Not that long ago, Greece was widely considered the most toxic in the world (as far as capital markets go, anyway). Just look at those bond yields at the height of the Euro crisis (courtesy of ZeroHedge).<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

But that\u2019s now a thing in the past. Unbeknownst to most investors, Greek stocks have been on a tear recently, as you can see in the below chart of the Athens stock market and Greek small caps.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

But let\u2019s not kid ourselves. As you can also see from the chart, Greek stocks are also a lesson in patience.<\/p>\n

You could have perfectly nailed the bottom in 2012, but you could have been forgiven for not reading the fine print that fast forward to 2017 (five years later), you would have little (or nothing rather) to show for your patience.<\/p>\n

However, from 2017 onwards, a basket of small cap stocks randomly chosen by a monkey would be up almost 5x. And even if you had settled for large caps, you would have performed more or less in line with the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Good things truly take time.<\/p>\n

Today, Greek stocks are still very attractively priced. In an\u00a0Insider Newsletter<\/em><\/a>\u00a0issue a few weeks ago, we highlighted a Greek \u201ccash-cow\u201d type stock in the oil and gas sector that\u2019s sitting on a P\/E of 3x and paying an 8% dividend. How do you say\u00a0\u201cnot too shabby\u201d<\/em>\u00a0in Greek?<\/p>\n

\"\ud83d\udcc8\"<\/b>\u00a0A CONTRARIAN\u2019S WET DREAM?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Speaking of patience, who would\u2019ve guessed that since the turn of the century gold has outperformed both the S&P 500 as well as tech stocks (as well as bonds and real estate)?<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

One would think that \u2014 especially with prices hovering around record highs right now (and in multiple currencies) \u2014 people would be all over gold, especially in today\u2019s increasingly fracturing world.<\/p>\n

But the reality is that most investors simply couldn\u2019t care less. Adam Taggart (@menlobear) shared some observations below, and they line up with what we\u2019re seeing in the markets \u2014 namely, there is still very little participation by institutions and almost nothing from retail.<\/p>\n

\n

Gold & silver investors might find this interesting:<\/em><\/p>\n

I just got off the phone with a veteran gold dealer\/shop owner.<\/p>\n

Despite gold rising to an all-time high this year & silver\u2019s recent surge to $35\/oz, he\u2019s not seeing any boost in buying enthusiasm from the general public Premiums on PMs are low right now due to this lackluster demand In fact, his customers are net sellers.<\/p>\n

He says the only movement he\u2019s seen is that maybe the ratio earlier this year of 5 sellers for every 1 buyer has now decreased to 3 sellers to 1 buyer.<\/p>\n

These sellers mostly fall into the following categories:<\/p>\n

1) bitter folks who bought back in 2012 who have been waiting to get back to even (nominally)
2) \u201cloose hand\u201d investors who have enjoyed a nice short-term return & simply want to pocket the profit
3) people who need the money. So, if the bull market indeed runs higher from here, he thinks we\u2019re still in the early innings of it.<\/p>\n

The general buying public doesn\u2019t get involved until the final inning or two\u2026and he doesn\u2019t see us as anywhere near that.<\/p>\n

Currently his store has few customers per day and most transactions are done by appointment. He contrasts this with the early 1980s gold run when he\u2019d arrive at the shop to find a line outside the door stretching around the block. In those days, he\u2019d had to let the sellers in first, so that he\u2019d then have inventory for the buyers to purchase!<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

By extension, practically nobody is looking at (or buying) gold mining stocks. They are trading well below their 2011 peaks, while gold is 50% higher (and if you want to see a tragedy of a chart, we dare you to look at the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF).<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Meanwhile, gold miners are printing cash right now, with margins soaring to record levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

We could be missing something, but this seems like a contrarian investor\u2019s wet dream.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83e\ude78\"<\/b>\u00a0BLOODY BANKS<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Having bought shares of Japanese banks in\u00a0Insider<\/em><\/a>\u00a0many years ago as a play on rising rates (and they were dirt cheap to begin with), the following \u201cinternal policy\u201d from one of Japan\u2019s regional banks caught our attention.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

According to CNBC:<\/p>\n

\n

The origins of this pledge trace back to the Thirty-seventh National Bank, Shikoku Bank\u2019s predecessor, where employees were required to sign and stamp such oaths in blood. The bank views the practice as a symbol of ethical conduct and societal responsibility, preserving it as a cherished legacy.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

We can\u2019t help but wonder if the topic of employee churn ever comes up in job interviews?\u00a0<\/p>\n

This also reminds us of what the late Charlie Munger said about incentives \u2014 \u201cshow me the incentives, and I\u2019ll show you the outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n

To contrast the above, the below meme feels very apropos.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Going back to Japanese banks\u2026\u00a0<\/p>\n

If our memory serves us well, we bought them around 2017 and sold in 2019 with nothing to show for after two years. And take a look at what happened since we hit the \u201ceject\u201d button\u2026<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

As we like to say, in investing, waiting is the hardest part.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83e\udd14\"<\/b>\u00a0WORLD OUT OF WHACK<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Years ago, Chris used to write a post series called\u00a0\u201cWorld Out of Whack,\u201d<\/em>\u00a0highlighting the headscratchers in the markets. Seeing this kind of stuff makes us think it might be worth bringing it back to life.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

One is a meme coin with no practical utility\u2026 and the other sells 4.4 million cars per year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As the saying goes, \u201cmarkets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.\u201d As if to prove that point, since that graphic was created, Dogecoin\u2019s market cap increased by another $10 billion (to $58 billion)\u2026 and it hasn\u2019t even hit its old peaks yet.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83e\ude99\"<\/b>\u00a0LONG STUFF, SHORT\u2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Circling back to precious metals\u00a0(and other \u201cstuff\u201d as we call it around here), this T-shirt sums up a good chunk\u00a0of our investing philosophy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n
\"Long<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

You can check out all our merch\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Have a great week!<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0FRANCE IS THE NEW GREECE The following headline from Europe grabbed our eyeballs a few days ago: A few key excerpts from the article: France\u2019s borrowing costs have risen above those of Greece for the first time, as investors fret that Michel Barnier\u2019s government could fail to pass a belt-tightening budget. \u2026 Thursday\u2019s moves underscore […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[15977,15976,5041,15978,1739],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-23587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-capitalist","tag-contrarians","tag-dream","tag-exploits","tag-wet"],"yoast_head":"\nA contrarian\u2019s wet dream? \u2013 Capitalist Exploits - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=23587\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A contrarian\u2019s wet dream? 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