{"id":234096,"date":"2025-05-10T05:54:11","date_gmt":"2025-05-10T05:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/april-trreb-stats-the-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing\/"},"modified":"2025-05-10T05:54:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-10T05:54:11","slug":"april-trreb-stats-the-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=234096","title":{"rendered":"April TRREB Stats: The Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Is it the wolf in sheep\u2019s clothing?<\/p>\n

Or is this a case of the sheep in wolf\u2019s clothing?<\/p>\n

Maybe I lost you in the analogy.<\/p>\n

Maybe you just want me to get to the TRREB stats already.<\/p>\n

Maybe you wish I would stop writing each individual sentence on a new line.<\/p>\n

But however you want to look at this,\u00a0perspective\u00a0<\/em>is important in this market.\u00a0 As is the case with any data set, you can interpret the numbers as you see fit, draw your own conclusions, and compare and contrast those thoughts, opinions, and takeaways with others.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a very fine argument to be made that the real estate market is in poor shape and there\u2019s pain ahead.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s also an excellent argument to be made that the worst is behind us.<\/p>\n

As I said: it\u2019s all a matter of perspective.\u00a0 Feel free to make a \u201ctop five list;\u201d two, in fact.\u00a0 One will comprise the top five reasons or statistics that show the market is in poor form, and the other will represent the top five reasons for optimism.<\/p>\n

\u201cReasons for optimism,\u201d eh?\u00a0 So says the pessimist\u2026<\/p>\n

While I fashion myself a\u00a0realist<\/em>, I\u2019ve also become cynical of late.\u00a0 I wouldn\u2019t say that my glass is consistently half-empty but rather that I\u2019ve grown to question the nature of things at every conceivable opportunity.<\/p>\n

Case in point: I question why the market has been slow so far in 2025.<\/p>\n

The bears will laugh at this as they believe the answer is obvious.<\/p>\n

Newspaper pundits will suggest that Toronto \u201cneeds\u201d a 50% correction in prices to \u201crestore affordability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Critics will point to age-old metrics like\u00a0debt-to-income ratio <\/em>and the ratio of increasing wages versus increasing real estate prices<\/em>, but I\u2019ve spent the last fifteen years debunking the significance of those measures in our city today.<\/p>\n

With a significant decline in interest rates that has \u201crestored affordability,\u201d I would once again question\u00a0why<\/em> the 2025 real estate market has been slow through the first four months.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think it has less to do with the intrinsic value of real estate (ie. the theory that prices are still overblown) and everything to do with\u00a0consumer confidence<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Raise your hand if you enjoyed<\/em> the recent federal election?<\/p>\n

Well, I suppose if you voted for the party that prevailed, your hand could be raised.<\/p>\n

But regardless of the outcome, I don\u2019t know whether any of us can say that we really enjoyed the political turmoil and uncertainty that has plagued our country for the last four months, or dare I say the last year?<\/p>\n

All elections are difficult.<\/p>\n

Most elections are divisive.<\/p>\n

But I don\u2019t recall a more<\/em> divisive election than the one we just experienced, and although the election is now behind us, there\u2019s still lingering bitterness, political jockeying, and grandstanding among constituents and civil servants alike.<\/p>\n

While approximately 43.7% of the country was satisfied with the outcome of the last election, I can confidently say that 100.0% of us are glad it\u2019s finally over.\u00a0 You could almost feel a collective sigh of relief the next day, even among those who were dissatisfied with the outcome.<\/p>\n

Attack ads are hard to watch.\u00a0 Sound bites are difficult to process.\u00a0 But uncertainty<\/em> is the hardest emotion to endure during an election cycle, and every man, woman, and child in this country was mired in uncertainty from the moment this election was called back in January.<\/p>\n

Couple this election with that of the Provincial Election here in Ontario back in February, and then feel free to add the uncertainty, doubt, turmoil, and downright paralysis handed to us as a result of the relationship (or lack thereof) between the United States and Canada over the last four months, and it\u2019s any wonder why consumer confidence is at an all-time low.<\/p>\n

Consumer confidence \u2013 as in, say, buying your daughter a Barbie on Amazon<\/em>?<\/p>\n

No.<\/p>\n

But consumer confidence in the stock market?\u00a0 The real estate market?\u00a0 The economy in general?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know that I\u2019ve seen such an incredible crisis of confidence since the pandemic in March of 2020.<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s also<\/em> why I think that the real estate market has a chance to turn around.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not looking to paint a rosy picture on this, nor am I going to suggest that we\u2019re heading back to a seller\u2019s market, but surely with a provincial and<\/em> federal election out of the way, it\u2019s fair suggest that perhaps the worst is behind us?<\/p>\n

The average home price in the GTA rose a modest 1.3% month-over-month, from March to April, and surpassed $1,100,000 for the first time since November:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That\u2019s right; we\u2019re now back on par with November.<\/p>\n

But is\u00a0your<\/em> house worth the same, more, or less than it was in November?<\/p>\n

It really depends on the market segment.<\/p>\n

I just sold a house in Leaside for over $4,000,000, with\u00a0two\u00a0<\/em>buyers bidding the price a quarter-million over asking.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think that would have happened last fall.<\/p>\n

But if you\u2019re looking to sell your 450 square foot condo in King West, you\u2019re probably wishing it was November.<\/p>\n

Year-over-year, that $1,107,463 price is\u00a04.1%<\/strong>\u00a0lower<\/em> than the corresponding price in April of 2025.<\/p>\n

For reference, the year-over-year decline in March was 2.5%.<\/p>\n

Are we seeing the market decline at an increasing rate?<\/p>\n

What\u00a0should<\/em> we have expected to take place over the last month, based on historical data?<\/p>\n

Previous to this year, the average home price in Toronto rose from March to April 20 times in the previous 23 market cycles:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yes, the average home price\u00a0did<\/em> increase last month, but only by 1.3%, which pales in comparison to the 3.1% we saw in 2024 and the 4.0% we saw in 2023.<\/p>\n

Had the market risen accordingly, we\u2019d have seen the average home price hit $1,127,145 or $1,136,984.\u00a0 That still would have represented a decline from last year, but it wouldn\u2019t have been as pronounced.<\/p>\n

As I have noted throughout 2025 thus far, while most people are primarily concerned with the\u00a0price<\/em> of their home, it\u2019s the sales data that remains the most significant in my mind.<\/p>\n

Looking back at January, February, and March\u2019s sales data, we noted that the sales figures were at or near all-time lows for those respective months:<\/p>\n

January \u2013 3rd fewest
February \u2013 fewest
March \u2013 fewest<\/p>\n

This is from 2002 onward, since the city was too small to measure before then and have it represent an accurate comparison.<\/p>\n

In April, we did\u00a0not<\/em> see sales figures follow the trend and represent the lowest ever.<\/p>\n

It was the\u00a0second<\/em>-lowest ever:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Except that 2020 was the pandemic, hence my asterisk, and hence why I would offer that last month\u2019s sales were the de facto lowest sales ever in the month of April.<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s not even close!<\/p>\n

The previous low was, well,\u00a0last year<\/em>, with 7,114 sales.<\/p>\n

So while last month represents the lowest sales ever, the\u00a0second<\/em>-lowest is 21.2% higher.\u00a0 That\u2019s wild!<\/p>\n

Month-over-month, the movement in sales was in line with the trend from 2023 and 2024:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This<\/em> is where I would say that, while the market is \u201cslow,\u201d it\u2019s not getting any slower.\u00a0 It\u2019s not getting any \u201cworse.\u201d\u00a0 It is, at the very least,\u00a0consistent<\/em>.<\/p>\n

New listings checked in at 18,836, which is the fourth-most in any month of April:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yes, it\u2019s up from the 16,941 recorded in April of last year, which placed that figure middle-of-the-pack as far as April goes.\u00a0 But 16,941 to 18,836 isn\u2019t that significant.<\/p>\n

As for the monthly movement, that 9.1% increase in new listings was far lower than last year, much higher than the year before, but overall, not significant:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What\u00a0is<\/em> significant, however, is the relationship between sales and listings!<\/p>\n

The absorption rate or sales-to-new-listing ratio (SNLR).<\/p>\n

As far as April goes, this was the lowest of all time:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Once again, it\u2019s not even close.<\/p>\n

This was the theme in March as well, don\u2019t forget.<\/p>\n

In March, we saw an absorption rate of 29.0% which was even\u00a0further<\/em> behind the second-lowest on the list, which was 46.2%.<\/p>\n

It almost makes the above gap \u2013 29.7% versus 42.0%, look small by comparison.<\/p>\n

Almost\u2026<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s put this all together.\u00a0 Let\u2019s monitor the absorption rate through 2025 and compare it to the previous four years:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Well, that\u2019s saying something!<\/p>\n

The absorption rate differs through the property type, however, as we noted last month.<\/p>\n

Freehold is doing better than condominium; but what else is new?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

So\u00a0now<\/em> you ask: what is my reason for optimism?<\/p>\n

Well,\u00a0 I\u2019m not looking to paint a rosy picture on this, nor am I going to suggest that we\u2019re heading back to a seller\u2019s market, but surely with a provincial and<\/em> federal election out of the way, it\u2019s fair suggest that perhaps the worst is behind us?<\/p>\n

When Donald Trump announced his tariffs and the stock market plunged the next day, we have to remind ourselves that it was already sitting at an all-time high<\/em>.\u00a0 If the DOW Jones is your measure, then let me ask you: will it regain the lost ground by the end of 2025?<\/p>\n

Maybe.\u00a0 Maybe not.\u00a0 However, as we saw with the stock market plunge in March of 2020 during COVID, the initial shock gave way to a gradual gaining of lost momentum, and by the end of the year, all<\/em> the lost ground had been made up.\u00a0 As history has shown, the DOW Jones has since gained upwards of 50% in four years\u2019 time.<\/p>\n

While I don\u2019t expect the real estate market to follow suit in the same way, I do see a parallel between market shocks and market recoveries.<\/p>\n

With the Bank of Canada likely to cut interest rates in June, an increase in consumer confidence could see a busy summer real estate market, much like in 2020 when the \u201clost\u201d sales during the COVID-affected months of March, April, and May resulted in all-time high sales figures in July and August.<\/p>\n

We won\u2019t be seeing all time anythings<\/em> this summer, but I do think that a little bit of consumer confidence will go a long way.<\/p>\n

The sales data will be the most interesting story of 2025 when we look back at year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n

Hey, maybe it\u2019s time to check in on the 2025 TRB Prediction Game?<\/p>\n

As it pertains to\u00a0sales<\/em>, the 32 TRB readers who entered the contest predicted an\u00a0average<\/em> of 72,613 sales for 2025.<\/p>\n

And who predicted the most?<\/p>\n

Your favourite grouch:\u00a0Oscar<\/em>!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Have a great weekend, everybody!<\/p>\n