{"id":228306,"date":"2025-05-07T07:08:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T07:08:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-may-04-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-07T07:08:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T07:08:03","slug":"stock-market-outlook-may-04-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=228306","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 May 04 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 4th = <span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #ff9900\">Neutral<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook shifted back to an uptrend last Monday, as buying pressure flooded into equities.\u00a0 Along with the market, many sectors also shifted to a bullish bias.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 <em>( $SPX )<\/em><\/a> rose 2.9% last week.\u00a0 The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~1% below the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8882\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8882\" data-attachment-id=\"8882\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/04\/stock-market-outlook-may-04-2025\/2025-05-04-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"1346,990\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-04-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for May 04 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8882\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"471\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8882\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for May 04 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Institutional activity remains in an uptrend; below average trading volume remains a concern.\u00a0\u00a0On-Balance volume <em>( OBV )<\/em>, which was on the verge of shifted coming into last week, confirmed its signal Monday and moved the overall outlook back to an uptrend.\u00a0 The Direction Indicator <em>( ADX )<\/em> shifted to neutral on Friday.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8883\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8883\" data-attachment-id=\"8883\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/04\/stock-market-outlook-may-04-2025\/2025-05-04-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,949\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-04-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 19 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8883\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"458\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8883\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 19 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Industrials <em>( $XLI )<\/em> led the way last week, rising more than 4%.\u00a0 Energy <em>( $XLE )<\/em> was the only sector without a gain, owing to a large drop in oil prices.\u00a0 Most sectors moved back to bullish bias:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Communications <em>( $XLC )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Consumer Discretionary <em>( $XLY )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Consumer Staples <em>( $XLP )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Financials <em>( $XLF )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Industrials <em>( $XLI )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Materials <em>( $XLB )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Real Estate <em>( $XLRE )<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Technology <em>( $XLK )<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8881\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8881\" data-attachment-id=\"8881\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/04\/stock-market-outlook-may-04-2025\/2025-05-04-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1321,956\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-04-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 19 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8881\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"463\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8881\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 19 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>All style funds ended the week with gains; Momentum <em>( $MTUM )<\/em> was the highest and High Dividend <em>( $SPHD )<\/em> was the lowest.\u00a0 Most styles returned to bullish bias as well, though small and mid-cap value are still working through their recent losses.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8880\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8880\" data-attachment-id=\"8880\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/05\/04\/stock-market-outlook-may-04-2025\/2025-05-04-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-asset_class_performance.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,704\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-05-04-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for various asset classes&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 19 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-asset_class_performance.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8880\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-04-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8880\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 19 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>No surprise here; U.S. equities <em>( $SPY )<\/em> led the way higher last week.\u00a0 Oil <em>( $USO )<\/em> collapsed on headlines that OPEC+ agreed to boost output in June.\u00a0 Bonds <em>( $IEF )<\/em> continued to waffle, falling back to neutral bias on the stronger-than-expected jobs data.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>After an impressive stretch of higher closes, a majority of equity sectors and styles show bullish bias now.\u00a0 The break above the 50-day moving average and 5600 was important; now the index needs to deal with the 200-day and the 5800 resistance level.<\/p>\n<p>Actually, any pullback or consolidation would be the ideal time to deploy capital, giving equities time to cool off, since they\u2019re currently overbought.\u00a0 Use the watchlists you\u2019ve been updating and look for stocks breaking out out of consolidation phases and price patterns with higher volume.\u00a0 And if you do deploy capital, keep those losses small if the trade turns against you.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the bullishness of equities, the macroeconomic picture remains murky at best.<\/p>\n<p>April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data was slightly lower than March, but well above expectations despite uncertainty from all the tariff announcements.<\/p>\n<p>PCE continues to be a challenge for tea-leaf readers: March inflation was inline with expectations, but February data was revised significantly higher (Headline up 20 bps from 2.5% to 2.7% and Core up 30 bps from 2.7% to 3%).\u00a0 Given recent trends, it\u2019s reasonable to assume March inflation data is higher than reported and will be revised next month.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>PCE (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.3%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.7%*<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.2%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.0%*<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>The advanced Q1 GDP came in at -0.3%, down from +1.6% in 2024 Q1 and below estimates for +0.3%.\u00a0\u00a0 A 41.3% surge in imports did the most damage, as businesses stockpiled goods in an attempt to mitigate higher costs from tariffs.\u00a0 Consumer spending and federal government expenditures were also lower.<\/p>\n<p>We need another month or two before seeing the full effect of Liberation Day announcements, as inventories, supply chains, and shipping normalize.\u00a0 And that data won\u2019t include any adjustments, or lack thereof, to tariff policies that occur in the interim.<\/p>\n<p>Four of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d reported better than expected earnings, but guidance was mixed:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Meta reported higher revenue &amp; earnings, and gave positive guidance<\/li>\n<li>Microsoft reported higher revenue &amp; earnings, and gave positive guidance<\/li>\n<li>Apple reported higher revenue &amp; earnings, and gave lukewarm guidance<\/li>\n<li>Amazon\u2019s reported higher revenue &amp; earnings, and gave weak guidance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This week we get more earnings and a FOMC interest rate decision.\u00a0 The committee likely keeps interest rates unchanged, since inflation and labor data show a \u201cneutral\u201d picture and imports clouded Q1 economic figures.<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 4th = Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0Neutral Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Uptrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifted back to an uptrend last Monday, as buying pressure flooded into equities.\u00a0 Along with the market, many sectors also shifted to a bullish bias. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":228307,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-228306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 May 04 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=228306\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 May 04 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 4th = Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0Neutral Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Uptrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifted back to an uptrend last Monday, as buying pressure flooded into equities.\u00a0 Along with the market, many sectors also shifted to a bullish bias. 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