{"id":215322,"date":"2025-04-30T19:16:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T19:16:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/airline\/investigative-bias-air-transport-safety-articles-by-shem-malmquist\/"},"modified":"2025-04-30T19:16:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T19:16:31","slug":"investigative-bias-air-transport-safety-articles-by-shem-malmquist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=215322","title":{"rendered":"Investigative Bias | Air Transport Safety Articles by Shem Malmquist"},"content":{"rendered":"


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The concept of biases on the part of the accident investigator is not something often considered, however, I think this is a much larger issue than is often given credit for.\u00a0 It is virtually impossible to separate our bias\u2019from what we do.\u00a0 Accident investigation is supposed to be a scientific process, but the truth is that few investigators have really been trained to use a true scientific process.\u00a0 The concept is generally that it is easier to train a pilot, engineer or human factors expert to investigate than the other way round.<\/p>\n

Even those who are trained do attempt to follow a scientific process are not often successful.\u00a0 Why is that?\u00a0 Well, as important as it is to the scientific process, most people, even including scientific researchers, are not<\/em> elated if they discover that they\u2019re wrong about their beliefs, and that includes some of the most esteemed researchers in history.\u00a0 Richard Feynman realized that he had fallen into such a trap at one point, and, once aware, broke out of it.\u00a0 Lawrence Krauss state that \u201c\u00a0\u2026the most exciting thing about being a scientist is not knowing and being wrong. Because that means there is a lot left to learn.\u201d (Krauss, 2011).\u00a0 Is Krauss really capable of doing that?\u00a0 If so, he is quite unique, even among scientists.\u00a0 Talking the talk is a lot easier than walking the walk.<\/p>\n

We are all subject to these biases, and it is far from clear that it is possible to isolate any activity such that it is not subject to them.\u00a0 Your entire global approach to reality is framed by bias, which is really a form of mental short cut that allows us to make faster decisions.\u00a0 Those decisions were generally pretty good on the Savannah, but they do not always serve us well in modern life. \u00a0\u00a0In fact, many of the current political debates have been inaccurately framed as a consequence of confirmation bias<\/em>.\u00a0 As outlined by Tversky and Kahneman (1974), confirmation bias <\/em>will result in people excluding information that does not conform to their own mental models.\u00a0 Quantitative research is not immune either.\u00a0 Jeng (2006) described this as a factor even in physics \u2013 which is a field that is about as objective as one can get short of pure mathematics.<\/p>\n

These bias\u2019 extend to statistical analysis.\u00a0 In recent years it has become more apparent that there are some real issues in the ways we analyze results, in that our statistical methodology itself may be flawed (Gill, 2008).\u00a0 Traditional methods tend to reject results that show high variance even if there is an actual effect (Fenton & Neil, 2012,\u00a0pp. 311-315). \u00a0They also reward low variance even if an effect might not be actually present.\u00a0 This creates a confound in determining the outcome that is not generally considered in the research. \u00a0For example, is the lack of statistical support for the need to have simulator motion to support training a result of the motion really not being a factor, or is it a result of some high variance in results, which prevents the rejection of the null hypothesis (B\u00fcrki-Cohen, Go, Chung, and Schroeder, 2004)?\u00a0 Without further analysis, it is impossible to say, as it is equally possible it is a consequence of flaws in the motion algorithms themselves or simulator limitations. \u00a0\u00a0Or perhaps, there really is no statistically significant effect? (see also\u00a0http:\/\/bayesianrisk.com\/).<\/p>\n

These factors have profound implications as to how we do our job.\u00a0 What can be done to mitigate these issues?\u00a0 That is the subject of a future article.<\/p>\n

References:<\/p>\n

B\u00fcrki-Cohen, J., Go, T.H., Chung, W.W., and Schroeder, J.A. (2004).\u00a0Simulator Platform Motion Requirements for Recurrent Airline Pilot Training and Evaluation, Final Report<\/em>. Cambridge:\u00a0 Human Factors Research and Engineering Division, John A. Volpe National Transportation Center.<\/p>\n

Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2012).\u00a0Risk assessment and decision analysis with bayesian networks<\/em>. Boca Raton: CRC Press.<\/p>\n

Gill, J. (2008). Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavior Sciences Approach, 2nd<\/sup> Edition<\/em>. Boca Raton: CRC Press<\/p>\n

Jeng, M. (2006). A selected history of expectation bias in physics.\u00a0American journal of physics<\/em>,\u00a074<\/em>, 578<\/p>\n

Krauss, L. (2011).\u00a0 Cosmic Connections. <\/em>Retrieved from http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=FjAqcV_w3mc<\/a><\/p>\n

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases.\u00a0science<\/em>,\u00a0185<\/em>(4157), 1124-1131.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAbout Shem Malmquist FRAeS\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\tB-777 Captain. Air Safety and Accident Investigator. Previous experience includes Flight Operations management, Assistant Chief Pilot. Line Check Airman, ALPA Aircraft Technical and Engineering Chairman, Aircraft Performance and Designs Committee MEC Chair, Charting and Instrument Procedures Committee, Group Leader-Commercial Aviation Safety Team-Joint Safety Implementation Team (CAST)-Loss of Control-Human Factors and Automation, CAST-JSIT- Aircraft State Awareness. Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, full Member of ISASI, AIAA, IEEE, HFES, FSF, AFA and the Resilience Engineering Association. I am available for consulting, speaking or providing training seminars to your organization. Please contact me at https:\/\/malmquistsafety.com\/for inquiries.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The concept of biases on the part of the accident investigator is not something often considered, however, I think this is a much larger issue than is often given credit for.\u00a0 It is virtually impossible to separate our bias\u2019from what we do.\u00a0 Accident investigation is supposed to be a scientific process, but the truth is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":156002,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12028],"tags":[2236,13532,8870,19570,29562,417,29561,5625],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-215322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-airline","tag-air","tag-articles","tag-bias","tag-investigative","tag-malmquist","tag-safety","tag-shem","tag-transport"],"yoast_head":"\nInvestigative Bias | Air Transport Safety Articles by Shem Malmquist - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=215322\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Investigative Bias | Air Transport Safety Articles by Shem Malmquist - 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