{"id":20425,"date":"2025-01-09T23:35:06","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T23:35:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/aerospace\/an-undersea-volcano-near-oregon-may-erupt-in-2025-scientists-predict-it-could-help-improve-eruption-forecasts\/"},"modified":"2025-01-09T23:35:06","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T23:35:06","slug":"an-undersea-volcano-near-oregon-may-erupt-in-2025-scientists-predict-it-could-help-improve-eruption-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=20425","title":{"rendered":"An Undersea Volcano Near Oregon May Erupt in 2025, Scientists Predict. It Could Help Improve Eruption Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-article-body=\"\">\n<figure class=\"article-image lead-article-image\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/th-thumbnailer.cdn-si-edu.com\/s0USZ0uiqcqUWaUlF7f2Ywk-khE=\/1000x750\/filters:no_upscale():focal(667x451:668x452)\/https:\/\/tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/filer_public\/96\/a5\/96a536c3-64e8-4e73-a566-c1e7e324aebb\/axial_exaggerated_bathymetry.jpg\" alt=\"a map showing topography of an undersea volcano\" itemprop=\"image\"\/><figcaption class=\"caption\">\n<p>                A map of bathymetry\u2014or underwater topography\u2014of Axial Seamount, an active volcano some 300 miles off the coast of Oregon.<br \/>\n              <span class=\"credit\">NOAA<\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Oregon\u2019s most active underwater volcano could erupt this year, according to a prediction recently shared by scientists. The Axial Seamount, located 300 miles from the state\u2019s coast and one mile beneath the Pacific Ocean\u2019s surface, has been swelling at a steady rate for the past six months, with seismic activity totaling hundreds of earthquakes per day, according to an <a href=\"https:\/\/axial.ceoas.oregonstate.edu\/axial_blog.html\">Oregon State University blog<\/a> that chronicles eruption predictions of the sea volcano.<\/p>\n<p>In November, scientists were tipped off about the possibility of an imminent explosion when Axial\u2019s surface swelled to nearly the same height it had risen to in 2015\u2014just before it last erupted. When this so-called ballooning happens, it usually means magma is pooling underground and pressure in the surrounding area is increasing, reports Rachel Berkowitz of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencenews.org\/article\/scientists-undersea-volcano-eruption\"><em>Science News<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers presented the latest seismic and inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/agu.confex.com\/agu\/agu24\/meetingapp.cgi\/Paper\/1560361\">results<\/a> on the volcano last month at the American Geophysical Union conference in Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n<p>The scientists\u2019 prediction shouldn\u2019t be taken as a sign to panic\u2014the volcano doesn\u2019t pose a threat to people. But from a research perspective, this offers an ideal scenario to experiment with prediction techniques.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople\u2019s lives aren\u2019t in the equation,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/schmidtocean.org\/person\/william-chadwick\/\">Bill Chadwick<\/a>, a volcanologist at Oregon State University who is leading the research, tells Gosia Wozniacka of the <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oregonlive.com\/environment\/2025\/01\/scientists-predict-the-pacific-northwests-most-active-undersea-volcano-will-erupt-this-year.html\">Oregonian<\/a><\/em>. \u201cOn land, you can\u2019t do this forecasting without worrying about false alarms and freaking people out and having economic impacts. You don\u2019t want to evacuate towns and all that without knowing for sure that you need to.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As a result, he adds, the Axial Seamount is \u201ca great natural laboratory\u201d for studying undersea eruptions and volcanic forecasting. For the time being, reliable predictions about volcanic eruptions are rarely possible more than a few days in advance, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/volcano.si.edu\/faq\/index.cfm?question=eruptionforecast\">Smithsonian\u2019s Global Volcanism Program<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"video\">\n<div class=\"embedly-plugin\" data-type=\"video\">\n<div class=\"video-image\">\n<p>Studying Submarine Volcanoes<\/p>\n<div class=\"video-thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/vfDNJMSduJo\/maxresdefault.jpg\" data-video-id=\"vfDNJMSduJo\"\/><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>  <iframe width=\"854\" src=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" id=\"player\" allowfullscreen=\"\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe><\/p><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The Axial Seamount\u2019s current bloating comes as no surprise. The area is considered the most active underwater volcano in the Pacific Northwest, having erupted in 1998, 2011 and 2015. It sits on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, an underwater mountain range wedged between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marine-conservation.org\/media\/shining_sea\/place_epacific_juandefuca.htm#:~:text=Created%20by%20the%20separation%20of%20the%20Juan%20de%20Fuca%20Plate%20and%20the%20Pacific%20Plate\">two separating tectonic plates<\/a>: the Juan de Fuca Plate and the Pacific Plate. Such areas <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/smart-news\/in-a-first-scientists-find-animals-thriving-beneath-the-ocean-floor-in-hidden-habitats-near-deep-sea-vents-180985316\/\">teem with marine life<\/a>, including octopuses, bacteria, mussels, deep-sea crabs and tubeworms.<\/p>\n<p>Axial is also the world\u2019s most monitored submarine volcano. Because of its frequent activity, the seamount is home to the world\u2019s first underwater observatory, called the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmel.noaa.gov\/eoi\/nemo\/index.html\">New Millennium Observatory<\/a>, or NeMO, per <a href=\"https:\/\/axial.ceoas.oregonstate.edu\/axial_expeditions.html\">Oregon State University<\/a>. Every shake, hiccup or tremor is recorded and sent to scientists in real time with a fiber-optic cable along the seafloor via a web of instruments called the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), reports Marley Parker for the <a href=\"https:\/\/ndsf.whoi.edu\/tracking-the-ups-and-downs-of-axial-seamount\/\">National Deep Submergence Facility<\/a>. Scientists have monitored the volcano\u2019s rumbling and shaking through this cable for the last ten years.<\/p>\n<p>Chadwick and his team also often travel to the seamount on expeditions to gather more data. Most recently, the 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/axial.ceoas.oregonstate.edu\/axial_expeditions.html#:~:text=The%202024%20expedition%20to%20Axial,since%20its%20last%20eruption%202015.\">expedition<\/a> to the Axial Seamount repeated pressure measurements and continued documenting the inflation rates since 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s predictions of volcanic eruptions rely on recognizing patterns that occurred before the mountains last blew their tops. In 2015, swelling around the seamount happened a few months after experts began monitoring the site. The current level of inflation has reached about 95 percent of the amount seen before 2015\u2019s eruption, according to the presented research, and seismic activity is elevated like before. Other researchers have been using artificial intelligence to analyze the earthquakes from the 2015 eruption to better predict when the next explosion might happen, per <em>Science News<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you can develop a model for how this works at Axial, it gives us a starting point that we can apply elsewhere, and with a few tweaks, we can begin working on forecasts of other volcanoes,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/staff-profiles\/michael-poland\">Michael Poland<\/a>, a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Cascades Volcano Observatory who was not involved in the research, tells the <em>Oregonian<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Still, forecasting volcanic activity is not always easy, and eruptions can be unpredictable, even with data. \u201cThere\u2019s always the risk that a volcano will follow a pattern that we haven\u2019t seen before and do something unexpected,\u201d Poland says to <em>Science News<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>When the Axial Seamount does erupt, it won\u2019t be showy. The structure is considered a shield volcano, meaning it won\u2019t explode in fiery glory. Instead, it will ooze lava once enough pressure cracks the surface open, as Jes Burns wrote for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.opb.org\/article\/2024\/06\/25\/axial-seamount-getting-little-frisky\/\">Oregon Public Broadcasting<\/a> last year. Regardless of when Axial erupts, it will provide researchers with more knowledge about how volcanoes behave, what clues exist before an eruption and the aftermath.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe learn the most from volcanoes by catching them in the act,\u201d Chadwick tells the National Deep Submergence Facility. \u201cA big part of our work here is to ensure everything is in place for the next eruption.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"in-article-newsletter\">\n<div class=\"leade\">\n<p>Get the latest stories in your inbox every weekday.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<section class=\"tag-list\">\n<nav class=\"nav-tags\">Filed Under:<\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/earths-crust\/\">Earth&#8217;s Crust<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/earths-mantle\/\">Earth&#8217;s Mantle<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/geology\/\">Geology<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/new-research\/\">New Research<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/oceans\/\">Oceans<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/pacific-ocean\/\">Pacific Ocean<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/scientists\/\">Scientists<\/a>, <\/p>\n<p>                    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/tag\/volcanoes\/\">Volcanoes<\/a><\/p>\n<\/nav>\n<\/section><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A map of bathymetry\u2014or underwater topography\u2014of Axial Seamount, an active volcano some 300 miles off the coast of Oregon. NOAA Oregon\u2019s most active underwater volcano could erupt this year, according to a prediction recently shared by scientists. The Axial Seamount, located 300 miles from the state\u2019s coast and one mile beneath the Pacific Ocean\u2019s surface, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12024],"tags":[13270,13271,12768,12638,13269,11681,12961,13268,10306],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-20425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aerospace","tag-erupt","tag-eruption","tag-forecasts","tag-improve","tag-oregon","tag-predict","tag-scientists","tag-undersea","tag-volcano"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>An Undersea Volcano Near Oregon May Erupt in 2025, Scientists Predict. 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