\nJust as Clemson and FSU have been shielded by a woeful ACC schedule, Texas and Oklahoma sat in the Big 12\u2019s catbird seat since its inception. There aren\u2019t two or three games to plan for; every week is a ruthless slog with a loss waiting just around the corner. Steve Sarkisian didn\u2019t handle that sort of schedule well at USC and Washington. And, frankly, we have no idea what Oklahoma even has in Brent Venables.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll learn much about both programs when they have to put on their big boy pants every week. For my part, I suspect the football takes a step back, and perhaps the basketball teams, as this is a physical hoops league. But I believe their other programs will thrive, even dominate: Gym, softball, and baseball in particular should do well. (Oklahoma\u2019s outstanding Title IX programs will have a lot of success).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Damn, talk about prescient. Oklahoma and UT barely made 20 wins, finished in the bottom 1\/3rd of hoops. One coach was fired, another almost was. As of this writing, OU has claimed the SEC and National titles in Gymnastics; Texas is the No. 1 baseball team in the conference and country; and the Sooners and Horns softball teams are half-a-game out of first place. <\/p>\n
Football, however, did see that expected dropoff. Despite having the easiest SEC schedule in memory, the Horns went 0-for-Georgia (and dropped all three games against Power 5 playoff teams); while Venables barely clawed his way to a .500 season and a bowl berth. <\/p>\n
These programs were, as we predicted, precisely what they appeared to be: talented teams that are every bit the artifact of their schedule. <\/p>\n
So, what does Year 2 have in store for that duo, and the remaining half dozen SEC squads? Let\u2019s find out. <\/p>\n
Part One is linked below. But, in order to adduce difficulty of schedule we look at a combination of rested opponents, back-to-back road games, and who is played on the road. Since we are now in divisionless play, we\u2019re also adding winning teams to the matrix \u2014 Birmingham controls how hard your schedule is, not the geographic happenstance of a weak division (point and laugh at the old SEC East, if you must).<\/p>\n
And, as a rejoinder here. A complaint I read to Part One is that \u201cthis is just the same schedule flipped around.\u201d That may be true to the extent of teams placement, but it is not accurate in terms of placement on the calendar, who\u2019s rested, opponents coming off a bye, back-to-back road trips, and the like. Those other factors, not just the opponent, are responsible for drastic <\/em>swings in difficulty. It\u2019s how UGA went from having one of the hardest schedules in the conference last season to one of its easiest this year. It\u2019s why Texas A&M will be lucky to finish at .500 and why Vanderbilt is probably not making a bowl. <\/p>\nLet\u2019s find out why.<\/p>\n\n<\/aside>\nMississippi State:<\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 1 (dual-bye vs. Ole Miss)<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 4 (Missouri, Florida, Texas A&M, and even Arkansas is tough for this team)<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: 1 (Texas A&M, Florida)<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis:<\/strong> …The Bulldogs face six winning teams on the schedule. They host Florida, as well as Aggie coming off a bye. But it\u2019s the road schedule that\u2019s the real twist in the knife here: at Texas, at Georgia, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss. Woof. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nWe feared a new coaching staff would not find much reprieve with the schedule. In fact, the Bulldogs did not \u2014 MSU won just two games all year, and went winless in the conference. That godawful defense didn\u2019t exactly help either. <\/p>\n
Is 2025 a little kinder? Absolutely not. The road games are a little more forgiving, but every single SEC opponent is coming off a bowl bid. Three of them won 10+ games. And even the \u201ceasy\u201d games, like Arkansas, are on the road. But it\u2019s the home slate that will kill them. What home game best represents a chance for an upset? Ole Miss? Tennessee? Georgia? Texas? Every single game in the SEC is going to be hard for this bad team, but this is an unkind cut for the \u2018Dogs, and would be hard for most teams \u2014 don\u2019t be surprised for one second if Mississippi State goes winless in league play for a second straight season. One of the hardest schedules in the league, though not perhaps as bad as Vanderbilt or Alabama.<\/p>\n
Missouri:<\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 1 (vs A&M)<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 1 (at Oklahoma, maybe <\/em>Auburn and\/or Vandy if you\u2019re feeling generous)<\/li>\nConsecutive Road trips: 1 (at Auburn, Vanderbilt)<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis: <\/strong>Mizzou was an 11-win, Top 10 team last season. And the SEC, it seems, has no intention of allowing the Tigers to lose that momentum…This is easily one of the best schedules in a brutal league. Anything fewer than 9 or 10 wins would be a severe letdown. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nDrink chalked up another 10-win season for the oft-injured Tigers. Mission accomplished. <\/p>\n
Can Mizzou set a program record and claim a fourth-straight ten-win campaign this year? Probably. The Tigers once again have a laughably bad OOC schedule (ULL, UMass, Central Arkansas, and Kansas). And, once again, the SEC shielded the Tigers from some of the league\u2019s heaviest hitters: No LSU, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss. Of the four tough games, three of them are at home (Alabama, A&M, USCe). In fact, only one real road game of consequence stands out: a trip to Oklahoma. But let\u2019s not pretend the Sooners are a 10-win playoff sort of squad either. And, BHM even did them a solid by scheduling the Tigers with four games against teams who finished below .500 in SEC play. The only other smidge of difficulty came by giving the Aggies an extra week before facing Mizzou \u2014 but, even so, that\u2019s a Mizzou home game. By far <\/em>one of the easiest roads to travel in the SEC. Perhaps the easiest overall. <\/p>\nOklahoma<\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 0<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 3 (Alabama, Knoxville, South Carolina).<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: 0<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis:<\/strong> If I\u2019m Oklahoma, I\u2019m more than a little pissed about my maiden voyage in the SEC, particularly when they look south and see what the league gifted the Longhorns (more on that in a minute). The Sooners simply find no reprieve here…This is \u201cback nine at Carnoustie\u201d-tough. You go back and forth on who has the SEC\u2019s toughest schedule, Alabama or the Sooners, and this genuinely might be it. Oklahoma could be a pretty good team this year and not even make a bowl. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nThe Sooners barely <\/em>squeaked into a bowl, but frankly even getting there required some yeoman\u2019s work by Venables and that Sooners defense \u2014 paired with an auspicious upset here and there. OU got absolutely hammered by the league office last season. <\/p>\nIn 2025, the faces may remain the same, but the sledding is significantly easier. The Sooners go from facing the most rested opponents (4, with Alabama), to the fewest: zero teams will play OU with an extra week\u2019s rest and prep. Three of the home games are tough, but they are <\/em>at home, at least: LSU, Ole Miss, and Mizzou. Of the half-dozen SEC games they play against teams with 9-plus wins, four of them are at home, one is neutral, and only one is a true road contest. There are no B2B road games. And they even get the bye before facing Alabama, who will have no such luxury. Is it a hard schedule? Absolutely, one of the 4-5 toughest. But it\u2019s not unfairly so, and as much as you can rebound against that many quality opponents, this is set up very nicely for the Dirt Burglars to get to 7-8 wins. The road games are going to determine how well OU bounces back though; they\u2019re all tough: Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina. The Sooners compounded that degree of difficulty too by adding Michigan to the schedule. Brent Venables doesn\u2019t lack for balls, I\u2019ll give him that. <\/p>\nSouth Carolina: <\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 0<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 4 (at LSU, Mizzou, A&M, Ole Miss)<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: 1 (at Ole Miss, A&M)<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis:<\/strong> The schedule-makers did the Gamecocks a tremendous boon in allowing USCe to dodge Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia, but that\u2019s about the only favor from Bammerham. And, it is also more than offset by a grinding month in the middle of the year that is far tougher than most Octobers. It is a month that will define the season, in fact, and perhaps determine Shane Beamer\u2019s fate: Aggie, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss \u2014 with back-to-back road trips to Norman and Tuscaloosa.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nBuoyed by a breakout freshman star QB, one of the SEC\u2019s best RBs, and it\u2019s best defensive lineman, the \u2018Cocks were a darling of 2024, and had every bit the case for the playoffs of Tennessee, Alabama, or Ole Miss. Sustaining momentum has always been the hard part in Columbia. But last October, as expected, made the season for USCe: 3-1 against that month was awesome. <\/p>\n
In terms of balance, this is medium-tough schedule. The Gamecocks travel to Baton Rouge and College Station, and have a tilt in Baton Rouge, but they do dodge the Bulldogs and Longhorns, and they get \u2018Bama and OU at home. Just six teams on the schedule were bowl-eligible, and even the worst road games are winnable ones. Can USCe sustain last season\u2019s success? That is to be determined, but they can\u2019t point to the schedule in either case as the reason for that success or lack thereof \u2014 it\u2019s a tough conference; this is about average. Maybe even on the forgiving end, facing zero teams with an extra week to prep and rest, and their one B2B road swing broken up with a bye. Still, those are four harder road games, and visits by \u2018Bama and the Sooners are nothing to sneeze at. We\u2019ll say 7 wins and a step back. <\/p>\n
Texas: <\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 2 (Kentucky, at Florida)<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 2 (at Florida, at Georgia)<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: See below \u2014 there is a nasty month on the road<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis:<\/strong> This schedule is a joke, an outright joke. The Horns play two rested opponents: one is a mutual bye, the other is woeful Arkansas. Only half the schedule made a bowl game last year, and of those, only Georgia scares you. Speaking of: even that game is at home. There are no back-to-back road trips. The first true road game is not even until October 26th! Only a season-ending clash at the Hate Barn insulates this thing from being an ACC schedule…Texas may have the easiest schedule in the SEC that we will ever <\/em>see. They\u2019re going to win 10-11 games, and be absolutely insufferable about it too, scarcely realizing what an absolute gift landed in their gilded laps. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nEvery word of that bore foul fruit, right down to the one \u201cscary\u201d game actually materializing into a loss. <\/p>\n
Is it a tough schedule this year? No, it\u2019s pretty forgiving. But it is <\/em>a lot harder than last season. Last year the Horns didn\u2019t even go on the road until Halloween; this year, Texas spends an entire month away from Austin, though two of them are very easy trips, they\u2019re still road trips: Florida, (n) OU, Kentucky, Mississippi State. They also add a late-season visit to Athens, where the Bulldogs await. So, of the four true road games, at least two are existential threats, and OU figures to be a lot better this year. The home schedule sees A&M, but that\u2019s really about it, in terms of peer-level threat. The season will be made in the opening week in Columbus (vs. OSU), and the first B2B games away from DKR \u2014 in the Swamp and the Red River Shootout. But, it\u2019s still a Grade A pampering overall by the league, and once again one of the easier schedules. Still, the extra difficulty and Road Sark\u2019s flaky play, I think keeps UT bogged down at 9-10 wins as the ceiling. Not quite Missouri-easy, but close. <\/p>\nTexas A&M: <\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 2 (vs USCe, at Mizzou)<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 3 (LSU, Texas, Missouri)<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: See below \u2014 similar to Texas<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis: If the Shorties were handed a 10-win schedule, then the Aggies weren\u2019t too far behind from their Birmingham benefactors…The SEC blew up its 80-year history in 2012 to gain the Texas market. It doubled down on that deconstruction this year, diminishing itself with the addition of the Longhorns and Sooners. If the scheduling has shown you anything, by god the league will ensure that there are successful teams in the Lone Star State, even if they have to stack the deck. And they plainly did. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
What did Elko produce in Year One? The most fraudulent 8-5 record in a schedule that was custom-built to hand the Ags ten wins, though we had to pretend for about two months that this team was actually decent. <\/p>\n
Once again, A&M dodges the \u2018Bama\/Georgia duo. But this year, the hill is a bit steeper to climb for Aggie, and it is so for the same reason Texas\u2019 schedule is a bit tougher in 2025: They spend a solid month on the road. Though not playing four straight games (the Aggies do have a bye in there,) Texas A&M travels to Baton Rouge, CoMo, and Fayetteville for three straight games. A&M gets Florida and USCe in College Station, which certainly helps. But there\u2019s a nasty trap game against Auburn in the Hate Barn, and the Aggies finish the season in Austin \u2014 after a devastating no-show last year on their home field. While A&M faces just two rested teams, they\u2019re some of the better ones on the schedule (Mizzou and South Carolina). Last year was set up for 10 wins. This year, facing seven teams coming off bowls instead of four, and with that added trip to Notre Dame thrown in, A&M is set up for 7-8 wins. Maybe. Their floor is just as easily .500. <\/p>\n
Tennessee: <\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 1<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 2 (at Alabama, at Florida)<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: 0<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nLast Year\u2019s Prognosis:<\/strong> Tennessee, gifted a schedule from the Gods in 2022, got another one in 2024. The Vols are tied for the fewest teams with winning records on their schedule. They don\u2019t face a single team coming off of a bye week. They have no back-to-back road trips. And about half of their heavy lifting is at home, including three of their traditional rivals: Alabama, Florida, UK all come to town. Their season really will come down to a two-game swing at Norman and at Athens \u2014 even so, only one of those should actually scare them. We have no idea how good UT really is, and this schedule could easily get them to 10 wins even if they\u2019re merely above average. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nThe Vawls road that pansy schedule all the way to the playoffs. A stellar defense and Dylan Samson helped, of course. But this team was protected by a soft slate and it showed in Athens and Columbus. <\/p>\n
Somehow, the Vols finessed another schedule that\u2019s about as easy as last year. Tennessee faces just one team off a bye (pitiful Arkansas); has just two road trips of objective difficulty (\u2018Bama, Gata); gets the Dawgs early in the season at home; and even their trap game against the Sooners is in Knoxville. It is a little harder in two respects, though. 1. This year, the Vols face Syracuse on a neutral field versus last year\u2019s miserable OOC soup cans, and 2. There is a B2B road trip for Tuscaloosa and Lexington. Kentucky isn\u2019t anything to write home about, but Stoops\u2019 teams play out of their mind against UT, and especially at home. Not as manageable as last season, but definitely one of the easiest 3-4 schedules in the SEC. How easy? Half the schedule is against teams that finished below .500 in league play. Again. <\/p>\n
Vanderbilt: <\/strong><\/p>\n\nBye Opponents: 1 (at Kentucky)<\/li>\n Tough Road Games: 4 (at Missouri, at LSU, at Auburn, at Kentucky)<\/li>\n Consecutive Road trips: 0<\/li>\n Bowl teams: 7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nThe league slammed the \u2018Dores with 7 winning programs in their 8-game schedule: tied for the most in the SEC. They have four <\/em>nasty road games. The home schedule is not at all manageable, with only one realistic chance for an upset: Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and South Carolina…If this team somehow flirts with five wins, give Lea a key to the city.<\/p>\nWelp. There was <\/em>a home upset…but it was Alabama. And, Lea not only flirted with five wins, he got to seven. Great job by the \u2018Dores against a very tough schedule. While Nashville did not give him a key to the city, Vandy Pimp was born. (And, honestly, this season-long sketch and some deserved humbling of our fanbase was probably worth the L, no matter how flukish).<\/p>\n