{"id":186483,"date":"2025-04-15T17:37:34","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T17:37:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/aerospace\/risk-of-tariff-triggered-global-recession-growing-globaldata\/"},"modified":"2025-04-15T17:37:34","modified_gmt":"2025-04-15T17:37:34","slug":"risk-of-tariff-triggered-global-recession-growing-globaldata","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=186483","title":{"rendered":"Risk of tariff-triggered global recession growing \u2013 GlobalData"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Any prospective benefits of tariffs in the US will only emerge gradually, along with the tax cuts and deregulation promised by Trump. Credit: Chip Somodevilla\/Getty Images.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The risks of both US and global recessions are growing as a result of uncertainty created by the trade tariffs being variously proposed, introduced and rolled back by US President Donald Trump, according to a new briefing.<\/p>\n

GlobalData\u2019s Tariffs and Trade Wars Executive Briefing (First Edition)<\/a><\/em> states that concerns over a potential US recession, in particular, this year are growing as investors reassess the economic impact of the country\u2019s new tariff policies.<\/p>\n

\u201cKeen US interest in shutting backdoors to Chinese triangulation<\/a> of imports will further disrupt global supply chains, with surging risks of US stagflation and global recession if Trump overplays his hand,\u201d the briefing says.<\/p>\n

It adds: \u201cDespite the 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, the near- and longer-term outlook is dogged by tariff uncertainty, complicating investment and management decisions. The greatest risk is that ongoing market volatility triggers reflexivity, sending corporate and consumer confidence plummeting, with indications that this is already happening.\u201d<\/p>\n

The briefing notes \u201ca silver lining\u201d in that there could be a strengthening of regional and inter-regional trade ties outside the US. However, it maintains that the outlook remains very uncertain and volatile \u2013 largely because the motives and agendas underlying Trump\u2019s policies are tangled and contradictory.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis points to high levels of uncertainty \u2013 a feature rather than a bug, which Trump likes to weaponize for tactical advantage,\u201d it says. \u201cThe outlook is further clouded by questions over which countries will follow China in imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods and the timelines for potential trade negotiations with the US that could see tariffs reduced.\u201d<\/p>\n

The briefing adds that any prospective benefits of tariffs in the US would only emerge gradually, along with the tax cuts and deregulation promised by Trump.<\/p>\n

A key question it suggests needs consideration when assessing the likely impact of tariffs is how high the pain threshold is for the US administration in pursuing its goals. GlobalData\u2019s view is that it is \u201cprobably lower than its main trade-war opponents.\u201d<\/p>\n

The briefing explains: \u201cDecades of outsized market gains and high household exposure to equities mean negative wealth effects will be stronger in the US. There is limited fiscal policy headroom with dented international confidence hurting the US dollar and Treasury bond market, while higher prices complicate the Fed\u2019s scope to reduce interest rates. Trump\u2019s 9 April decision to pause most \u2018reciprocal\u2019 tariffs for 90 days suggests that bond market turbulence prompts greater caution in tariff policy.\u201d<\/p>\n

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