{"id":183123,"date":"2025-04-13T22:27:14","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T22:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/how-is-the-gta-condo-market-faring-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-13T22:27:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T22:27:14","slug":"how-is-the-gta-condo-market-faring-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=183123","title":{"rendered":"How Is The GTA Condo Market Faring In 2025?"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Alright, let me set the scene here folks, because things are moving\u00a0quickly<\/em>\u2026<\/p>\n

It\u2019s currently 1:45pm on Tuesday afternoon and I\u2019ve received not one, not two, but\u00a0three\u00a0<\/em>phone calls on my condominium listings.<\/p>\n

Who says the condo market is slow, right?<\/p>\n

The first agent said, \u201cHey, I\u2019m showing four units in the building and I\u2019ve mixed up all the keys.\u00a0 Do you remember if your key has a FOB attached?\u00a0 That would help me narrow it down.\u201d<\/p>\n

Alright.<\/p>\n

The second agent said, \u201cAny chance you\u2019re having an open house this weekend?\u00a0 I work out of Niagara On The Lake and I don\u2019t really want to drive in to show the condo to my clients, if I don\u2019t have to.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sure.<\/p>\n

The third agent said, \u201cI just showed your condo listing and it\u2019s not what my client is looking for, but she fell in\u00a0love<\/em> with that dining table and chairs.\u00a0 May I ask you where your client purchased it?\u201d<\/p>\n

Of course.<\/p>\n

If that doesn\u2019t sum up the current state of the condo market, then I don\u2019t know what does.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t get me wrong, we\u2019ve sold many of our condo listings this year, while others remain on the market.\u00a0 But the quality of the conversations that we\u2019re having with agents is at an all-time low.<\/p>\n

Or maybe the quality of\u00a0agents<\/em> themselves out there is the problem?<\/p>\n

About two weeks ago, I received an email from a buyer agent who showed one of my listings.\u00a0 He had some questions about the fitness studio located in the commercial portion of the condominium (ie. a separate business\u2026) and so I told him I would get back to him with answers.<\/p>\n

I reached out to the property manager and to my client, both of whom responded, and it turns out that the condominium corporation has a deal with the fitness club that allows a 12-month membership for\u00a0free<\/em>, one per unit, with additional memberships discounted by 50%.<\/p>\n

I emailed this to the buyer agent and he called me immediately.<\/p>\n

He was laughing.<\/p>\n

Laughing in a\u00a0good<\/em> way, however.<\/p>\n

\u201cDavid, I\u2019ll be honest: I showed five condos in the building on the weekend and I emailed all five listing agents about the gym.\u00a0 You\u2019re the only person who wrote me back.\u201d<\/p>\n

He went quiet after that, unfortunately.\u00a0 I was hoping we might see an offer!<\/p>\n

Six or seven days later, I called him and said, \u201cWhat\u2019s going on?\u00a0 Have your clients bought?\u00a0 Are they still interested?\u201d<\/p>\n

He told me, \u201cThey\u2019re interested, but they want to offer something really\u00a0low<\/em>.\u00a0 I\u2019ve had this conversation with other listing agents, and everybody\u2019s like \u2018don\u2019t bother, don\u2019t bother,\u2019 so I just figured you\u2019d be the same.<\/p>\n

Really?<\/p>\n

What type of listing agent tells a buyer agent\u00a0not<\/em> to make an offer?<\/p>\n

I told him, \u201cAny offer you submit will be well-received and I\u2019m happy to work with you.\u201d<\/p>\n

The next day, he submitted an offer.\u00a0 It was low, no doubt about it, but it was an offer nonetheless.\u00a0 My client\u2019s condo had now been listed for over seventy days and we had already reduced the price, so despite the low offer, he was happy to have something in writing.<\/p>\n

It took four days and six sign-backs, but eventually, we got a deal done.<\/p>\n

I wonder what all those agents saying, \u201cDon\u2019t bother, don\u2019t bother\u201d are doing with their listings\u00a0now<\/em>?<\/p>\n

There are some really awful character traits and emotions dominating this cooling condo market right now, and the worst of them are apparent from the moment the listing agent answers his or her phone:<\/p>\n

-Delusion
-Ego
-Entitlement
-Naivety
-Aggression<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t understand it.<\/p>\n

The goal is to sell the condo.\u00a0 The job is to work for your client.<\/p>\n

And yet so many of these listing agents are acting like it\u2019s 2022 and they\u2019re being overwhelmed with showings.<\/p>\n

With the first-quarter of 2025 now behind us, let\u2019s take a look at the GTA condo market, which we know is slow, but it\u2019s time we put some data to the \u201cfeelings\u201d out there\u2026<\/p>\n

First up, let\u2019s check in on the number of listings:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

New listings were up 33% in January, 6% in February, and 23% in March.<\/p>\n

Overall, through Q1, new listings were up<\/em> by 20.1%<\/strong> over the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n

This could be much ado about nothing, provided\u00a0sales<\/em> reflect the same increasing trend.\u00a0 But as most of you already know, sales are actually\u00a0declining<\/em>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s worth noting that those sales figures for\u00a0each<\/em> of January, February, and March are higher than any of 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024.<\/p>\n

Graphically, January obviously stands out, but February remains at least\u00a0somewhat\u00a0<\/em>in line:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As for the 905, the data is a little more striking:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

New listings were up 63% in January, 11% in February, and 39% in March.<\/p>\n

Overall, through Q1, new listings were up by 36.0%<\/strong> over the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s\u00a0very\u00a0<\/em>different from the 416 data!<\/p>\n

And unlike the 416\u00a0chart<\/em>, which showed the data somewhat in line with prior years, the 905 chart shows us that 2025 is looking like a true outlier:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As I mentioned above, it\u2019s fine to see\u00a0new listings<\/em> increase so long as\u00a0sales<\/em> increase around the same pace.<\/p>\n

Failing that, the absorption rate falls, and theoretically, so too should prices.<\/p>\n

Having said that, sales did\u00a0not<\/em> move in tandem with new listings.\u00a0 In fact, sales\u00a0declined:<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sales were down 15% in January, 18% in February, and 22% in March, and while I\u2019m no genius, that feels like a \u201ctrend\u201d to me.<\/p>\n

For the entire first quarter, those 2,504 sales are\u00a018.8%<\/strong>\u00a0lower<\/em> than the 3,083 sales recorded in January, February, and March of 2024.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In the 905, the data showed a market that\u2019s slowed at a much greater rate:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

While the year-over-year decline in sales was only 8% in January, it rose astronomically to 31% in February, before finishing down 27% in March.<\/p>\n

For the entire first quarter, those 1,286 sales are 23.5%<\/strong>\u00a0lower<\/em> than the 1,680 sales recorded in January, February, and March of 2024.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

For those playing along at home, let\u2019s do a quick catch-up with the year-over-year data for Q1:<\/p>\n

416 listings: up<\/em> 20.1%
416 sales: down<\/em> 18.8%<\/p>\n

905 listings: up<\/em> 36.0%
905 sales: down<\/em> 23.5%<\/p>\n

That\u2019s going to affect the sales-to-new-listings ratio, right?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how the 416 looks:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

An average absorption rate of 27.4% through the first three months does not inspire confidence in the condo market,\u00a0however<\/em>, this doesn\u2019t take into account the massive number of re-listings, since TRREB stopped publicly sharing that data in the fall of 2024.<\/p>\n

A picture paints a thousand words, so here\u2019s the chart:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Last year at this time, we were talking about how our \u201cyellow line\u201d was trailing prior years.<\/p>\n

Now in 2025, our \u201cgreen line\u201d is even lower on the chart.<\/p>\n

While the absorption rate in the condo market was\u00a0higher<\/em> in the 905 in 2024 than in the 416 (an average of 39.3% versus an average of 36.3%), the opposite is true this year:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen an average of 27.4% in the 416 and an average of 26.2% in the 905.<\/p>\n

Either way, our \u201cgreen line\u201d is going to be well below the rest in the 905 too\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Make no mistake, condo listings\u00a0are<\/em> selling.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re just taking longer to sell.<\/p>\n

\u201cSixty days is the new thirty days,\u201d as I told a client last week.<\/p>\n

But try this on for size:<\/p>\n

\n

The average 416 condo price is only down 1.8%, year-over-year, in the month of March, and it was only down 0.3%, year-over-year, in the month of February.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

With an absorption rate nearing\u00a0one-quarter<\/em>, you would expect to see a monumental decline, no?<\/p>\n

This is the same argument that I made in Monday\u2019s blog post and it speaks to the resiliency of the condo market.<\/p>\n

Times are tough out there and I would point to the following five factors:<\/p>\n

1) Sales are down
2) Listings are up
3) Re-listings are rampant
4) Sellers aren\u2019t being realistic
5) Listing agents have no idea how to work in this market, act like it\u2019s 2022, and get aggressive on the phone.<\/p>\n

The last one sticks out for a reason, and not only because it\u2019s the longest.\u00a0 This one is a\u00a0major<\/em> hurdle in the market and it\u2019s a major reason why more units aren\u2019t selling.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re a seller in this market, now isn\u2019t the time to hire the one-off agent, the cousin, the out-of-towner, the discount guy, or the like.<\/p>\n

And in case you simply can\u2019t get enough stats, I\u2019ll be back here on Monday to talk about the\u00a0rental<\/em> market<\/em> statistics for Q1.<\/p>\n

Have a great weekend, everybody!<\/p>\n