D<\/span>uring the previous Trump term, the first thing I did every morning was look at the news on my phone\u00a0\u2013 just to check he hadn\u2019t blown anything up.<\/p>\n I made a deal with myself that I wouldn\u2019t do that again through Trump Part II.<\/p>\n Well, that\u2019s over, as is much of what we\u2019ve taken for granted about the US-led international order that\u2019s underpinned Western prosperity since World War 2.<\/p>\n Partisan bias causes people to be more negative about the economy whenever their \u2018side\u2019 is out of power. But at least in the past I always believed that any US President had a vested interest in the common good. There was always a hope their policy medicine could work, even if I believed it to be harsh, or likely to cause bad side-effects.<\/p>\n Sadly, Trump\u2019s medicine is all side-effects and no therapeutic value. It\u2019s the hydroxychloroquine of economics.<\/p>\n And this time, there\u2019s nobody in Trump\u2019s administration to tell him it\u2019s a lose-lose idea. Or to at least distract him with some less important toy to break.<\/p>\n The market\u2019s verdict is clear. Here\u2019s the stock market slide as represented by various ETFs, with Trump\u2019s Ruination Day tariffs listed per country (black text on each bar):<\/p>\n Equity ETF returns per country from 2 April to 4 April 2025. Source: JustETF<\/a>. Not shown: 41% tariffs on the Falkland Islands, 0% on Russia, 50% on mighty Lesotho, 10% on Penguin Island. 10% on British Indian Ocean Territory \u2013 inhabited by US and UK military personnel only.<\/p>\n Two things stand out, aside from it being a global bin fire.<\/p>\n Firstly, the US market is one of the worst affected.<\/p>\n Secondly, at the time of writing there\u2019s little correlation between the size of Trump\u2019s tariff and the impact on individual country stocks.<\/p>\n For instance, the Australian market is down over 10% after a 10% tariff slap. Yet Vietnamese firms \u2018only\u2019 dropped 5.8%, despite Vietnam\u2019s 46% tariff clothesline.<\/p>\n Meanwhile the UK\u2019s FTSE All-Share lost 6.3% \u2013 even though we supposedly<\/a> got off lightly.<\/p>\n Nobody knows if Trump will walk some of this back or escalate. His advisors don\u2019t know. He probably doesn\u2019t know himself.<\/p>\n More to the point, nobody can predict how business and consumer confidence will bear up against the turmoil and anxiety. But it\u2019s hardly the time to splash out is it?<\/p>\n Perhaps deleting all our news and stock market apps is the way to go \u2013 because here\u2019s one way to view the decline:<\/p>\n A 4.6% loss since the start of January this year only sets the Slow & Steady portfolio<\/em> back to July 2024. That doesn\u2019t even rank among the top five worst quarterly losses in our model portfolio\u2019s short life.<\/p>\n The portfolio\u2019s worst drawdown was -14.9% in 2022. And we haven\u2019t actually experienced a proper bear market<\/a> loss since gunning up the portfolio more than 14 years ago.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a blessing! But it also means that many of us haven\u2019t been truly tested yet.<\/p>\n William Bernstein advises investors to use their first bear market as a reality check \u2013 a verification of your actual risk tolerance<\/a>.<\/p>\n If you panicked last time, then Bernstein thinks you should ease back on equities and beef up your bonds so you\u2019ll find it easier to handle the next go around.<\/p>\n But what happens if you haven\u2019t previously experienced a bear market for equities \u2013\u00a0but you did recently suffer a hideous bond shock<\/a>?<\/p>\n My guess is that some of us are in over our heads on the equities side, having grown leery of bonds. Perhaps we\u2019re relying on diamond hands that could to turn to jelly in a real rout.<\/p>\n That happened last time during the Covid crash<\/a>. Some of the Monevator<\/em> community fled the field.<\/p>\n Granted, the market in March 2020 was going down like a lift with its cable cut. Yet equities bounced back within five weeks.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re feeling a grim sense of foreboding then I\u2019m right there with you. But if you\u2019re feeling scared or downright sick at the thought of what could happen next then you\u2019ve got a couple of viable choices.<\/p>\n You could pare back a little on risk. Swap, say, 10-20% of your equities for bonds and\/or cash. <\/p>\n Things could easily get even worse from here \u2013 though nobody knows for sure \u2013 so perhaps take a hit now to stave off being completely broken later.<\/p>\n Alternatively, brace yourself and hold on for dear life.<\/p>\n There should be a stock market pain simulator out there but this chart is the best I can do:<\/p>\n Bull and bear markets over time (US). Source: Vanguard<\/a> <\/p>\n Take a long look at those negative numbers, and at how many years you might have to wait to turn the corner. Can you live with that?<\/p>\n If you can, then you should eventually be rewarded with one of the successive growth eruptions that dominate the chart.<\/p>\n Maybe sooner. Maybe later. Who knows where this goes next? The adults are not in the Situation Room.<\/p>\n But some day they will be again.<\/p>\n So if you\u2019re not ready to bail, if you\u2019re in it to win it, then you\u2019re gonna have to take some pain. Grit your teeth, pull down your tin hat, and pledge that you won\u2019t sell<\/a>.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a fortifying tweet \u2013 quoting Barry Ritholtz\u2019 new book<\/a> \u2013\u00a0that might help:<\/p>\n There\u2019s never any 100% guarantees. But history is on the side of investors who\u2019ve held fast<\/a> for the long-term.<\/p>\n Everything is down in our model portfolio for the quarter, except for bonds. At least something is still working!<\/p>\n Here are the latest numbers (as of 4 April \u2013 a long time ago):<\/p>\n The Slow & Steady<\/em> is Monevator\u2019s<\/em> model passive investing<\/a> portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with \u00a33,000. An extra \u00a31,310 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story<\/a> and find all the previous passive portfolio posts<\/a> in the Monevator <\/em>vaults. Last quarter\u2019s instalment can be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Every quarter we throw \u00a31,310 of red meat at the wild dogs of the market. Our stake is split between our portfolio\u2019s seven funds, according to our predetermined asset allocation.<\/p>\n We rebalance using\u00a0Larry Swedroe\u2019s 5\/25 rule<\/a>. That hasn\u2019t been activated this quarter, so the trades play out as follows:<\/p>\n Emerging market equities<\/strong><\/p>\n iShares Emerging Markets Equity Index Fund D \u2013 OCF 0.2%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: GB00B84DY642<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a3104.80<\/p>\n Buy 53.571 units @ \u00a31.96<\/p>\n Target allocation: 8%<\/p>\n Global property<\/strong><\/p>\n iShares Environment & Low Carbon Tilt Real Estate Index Fund \u2013 OCF 0.17%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: GB00B5BFJG71<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a365.50<\/p>\n Buy 29.39 units @ \u00a32.23<\/p>\n Target allocation: 5%<\/p>\n Developed world ex-UK equities<\/strong><\/p>\n Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index Fund \u2013 OCF 0.14%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: GB00B59G4Q73<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a3484.70<\/p>\n Buy 0.752 units @ \u00a3644.76<\/p>\n Target allocation: 37%<\/p>\n UK equity<\/strong><\/p>\n Vanguard FTSE UK All-Share Index Trust \u2013 OCF<\/a> 0.06%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: GB00B3X7QG63<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a365.50<\/p>\n Buy 0.242 units @ \u00a3271.17<\/p>\n Target allocation: 5%<\/p>\n Global small cap equities<\/strong><\/p>\n Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index Fund \u2013 OCF 0.29%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: IE00B3X1NT05<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a365.50<\/p>\n Buy 0.170 units @ \u00a3384.75<\/p>\n Target allocation: 5%<\/p>\n UK gilts<\/strong><\/p>\n Vanguard UK Government Bond Index \u2013 OCF 0.12%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: IE00B1S75374<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a3301.30<\/p>\n Buy 2.253 units @ \u00a3133.75<\/p>\n Target allocation: 23%<\/p>\n Global inflation-linked bonds<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Royal London Short Duration Global Index-Linked Fund \u2013 OCF 0.27%<\/p>\n Fund identifier: GB00BD050F05<\/p>\n New purchase: \u00a3222.70<\/p>\n Buy 204.688 units @ \u00a31.09<\/p>\n Target allocation: 17%<\/p>\n New investment<\/strong> contribution<\/strong> = \u00a31,310<\/p>\n Trading cost <\/strong>= \u00a30<\/p>\n Average portfolio OCF <\/strong>= 0.17%<\/p>\n Take a look at our broker comparison<\/a> table for your best investment account options.<\/p>\n InvestEngine<\/a> is currently cheapest if you\u2019re happy to invest only in ETFs. Or learn more about choosing the cheapest stocks and shares ISA<\/a> for your situation.<\/p>\n If this seems too complicated, check out our best multi-asset fund<\/a> picks. These include all-in-one diversified portfolios such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds<\/a>.<\/p>\n Interested in monitoring your own portfolio or using the Slow & Steady<\/em> spreadsheet for yourself? Our piece on portfolio tracking<\/a> shows you how.<\/p>\n You might also enjoy a refresher on why we think most people are best choosing passive vs active investing<\/a>.<\/p>\n Take it steady,<\/p>\n The Accumulator<\/em><\/p>\nTrump tariffs tantrum<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/monevator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Country-ETFs-x-tariffs_Apr-2_Apr-4_v2.png?ssl=1\")
<\/a><\/figure>\nTis but a flesh wound<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\nRisk matters<\/h2>\n
That was then\u2026 <\/h3>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\nHow\u2019s the Slow & Steady<\/em> doing?<\/h3>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\nNew transactions<\/h2>\n
User manual<\/h3>\n