{"id":176226,"date":"2025-04-07T21:32:12","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T21:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/sobering-retirement-income-drawdown-demonstrations-12-5-years-in\/"},"modified":"2025-04-07T21:32:12","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T21:32:12","slug":"sobering-retirement-income-drawdown-demonstrations-12-5-years-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=176226","title":{"rendered":"Sobering retirement income drawdown demonstrations \u2013 12.5 years in"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\">\nAnother year has passed for our UK early retiree.\u00a0 A year ago I wrote that in the worlds biggest economy, the United States, Donald Trump was starting trade wars and the S&amp;P500 cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio was sitting at 32.0 against a long run average of 16.9.\u00a0 A year on it\u2019s almost d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu with the trade war with China still rumbling along and the S&amp;P500 still on a high 30.4.\u00a0 Closer to home I wrote that we had a Brexit shambles playing out in slow motion that might just ruin the economy for a long time.\u00a0 A year on and the whole Brexit situation has moved on to become a joke with politicians continuing to promise unicorns while the FTSE100 has fallen 2.8% in nominal terms.\u00a0 Of course dividends continued to be paid which will have dampened that fall.<\/p>\n<p>Against this environment it\u2019s unlikely a UK early retiree who has opted for a higher withdrawal rate will be dancing for joy but let\u2019s take a look.<\/p>\n<p>This update of the drawdown demonstrations now has our retiree some 12.5 years in to retirement.\u00a0 It assumes our retiree is not one of the lucky ones sitting on a defined benefit pension (although it\u2019s likely they\u2019d need some other income source in the early years if they\u2019re going to FIRE), isn\u2019t intending to buy an annuity (again, not likely for the early years of FIRE) and isn\u2019t planning on living off the State Pension (although 12.5 years in to retirement our UK retiree might just be starting to get to an age where there might be some predictability in what they might receive here so they might want to start baking a portion into their models).<\/p>\n<p>We are now fast approaching the half way mark that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2013\/02\/calculating-that-important-retirement.html\">the 4% rule<\/a> is based upon and this simulation assumes retirement was taken on the 31 December 2006.\u00a0 If this date sounds convenient then you\u2019re right.\u00a0 The date was deliberately chosen as it is the year prior to the commencement of the global financial crisis and so hopefully represents a modern worst case.\u00a0 Someday it may even go down in history as one of the time periods which saw a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2015\/05\/insuring-against-sequence-of-returns.html\">poor sequence of returns<\/a> however of course that will only become clear when we are firmly looking in the rear view mirror many years hence.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"more\"\/>Over the years readers have suggested various alternatives for these demonstration portfolios however for long term consistency I want to make as few changes to the original assumptions as possible so will stick with them for now.<\/p>\n<p>Where we left our retiree\u2019s a year ago can be found <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2018\/07\/sobering-retirement-income-drawdown.html\">here<\/a>.\u00a0 In brief, the key assumptions are:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<li>Our retiree\u2019s are drawing down at the stated withdrawal rate plus fund expenses only.\u00a0 This means any trading commissions, wrapper fees (eg ISA, SIPP fees), buy\/sell spreads and taxes have to be paid out of the earnings taken.\u00a0 For example, our 2% initial withdrawal rate retiree is actually drawing down at between 2.1% and 2.2% dependent on the asset allocation selected.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/li>\n<li>6 Simple UK equity \/ UK bond portfolios are simulated for our retiree.\u00a0 The UK equities portion is always the FTSE 100 where the iShares FTSE 100 ETF (ISF) is used as the proxy.\u00a0 This fund currently carries expenses of 0.07% however this has been as high as 0.4% in the past.\u00a0 For the bonds portion a simulation is run against UK gilts (FTSE Actuaries Government Securities UK Gilts All Stock Index) where the iShares FTSE UK All Stocks Gilt ETF (IGLT) is used as the proxy and the bond type I have preferred in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2015\/06\/my-investment-portfolio-warts-and-all.html\">my own portfolio<\/a>, UK index linked gilts (Barclays UK Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index), where the iShares Barclays \u00a3 Index-Linked Gilts ETF (INXG) is used as the proxy.\u00a0 The later has seen it\u2019s expenses reduced from 0.25% to 0.1% over the past year which should also give a little performance boost going forwards.<\/li>\n<li>All calculations are in real (RPI inflation adjusted) terms meaning that a \u00a3 in 2006 is equal to a \u00a3 today.<\/li>\n<li>The wealth accrued at retirement (the 31 December 2006) is \u00a3100,000.\u00a0 To simulate a larger or smaller amount of wealth just multiple by a constant. For example if you want our retiree\u2019s to have \u00a3600,000 just multiply all the subsequent pound values by 6.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">\nA 4% Initial Withdrawal Rate<\/h2>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj8kM2DBx1rIao8uFkSByxbJTv0pcknueAnqRYWGfhJtHnPXBTHg6-cfNxN6onJSpG4b21icgK0470QEvWUiseXoI6iiLSc5JPwhBGdyeydUCojbPNu7QNEKbnYkM5LjZVbA2fq_WVYsi6P\/s1600\/190720-1.png\" imageanchor=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 4% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" border=\"0\" height=\"190\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj8kM2DBx1rIao8uFkSByxbJTv0pcknueAnqRYWGfhJtHnPXBTHg6-cfNxN6onJSpG4b21icgK0470QEvWUiseXoI6iiLSc5JPwhBGdyeydUCojbPNu7QNEKbnYkM5LjZVbA2fq_WVYsi6P\/s400\/190720-1.png\" title=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 4% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" width=\"400\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>\n<i>UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 4% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value, Click to enlarge<\/i><\/p>\n<p>\nI always start with a 4% withdrawal rate because of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2013\/02\/calculating-that-important-retirement.html\">the often quoted 4% safe withdrawal rate rule<\/a>.\u00a0 The 50% equity : 50% gilts portfolios (the red lines on the chart) are the closest representations to the 4% rule with obvious differences being that:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<li>the 4% rule was for a US based investor with US based investments while I\u2019m simulating UK investors with UK based investments; and<\/li>\n<li>the 4% rule doesn\u2019t consider fees where I\u2019m capturing the OCF\u2019s of the ETF\u2019s which makes my withdrawal rate very slightly higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nOne year ago, after 11.5 years of retirement, between 7% and 28% of investment wealth had been lost in real terms.\u00a0 A year on the 75% FTSE 100 \/ 25% UK Gilts portfolio remains the worst performer, now down 32% in real terms, with the 25% FTSE 100 \/ 75% UK Index Linked Gilts remaining the best performer, now down 8%.<\/p>\n<p>So we\u2019re 42% of the way through a 30 year retirement and in the worst case scenario have burnt through 32% of our wealth in real inflation adjusted terms.\u00a0 I personally wouldn\u2019t be sleeping overly soundly with this and for some time now probably would have scaled back spending a little if that option was available to me or I might have tried to work up some sort of part-time income.\u00a0 Those who are less risk averse would probably be rolling with the punches and maybe starting to assume some state pension will help things in the future.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">\nA 3% Initial Withdrawal Rate<\/h2>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEixvX_aIOLCzXcRpSTsZLQUEg8bwxp5ZdU4r0yuR-W3PTBwbO9rRAf8n2hDXZ23npxlQxvrPk0kx49yP24Kb6ljdSIzsYtiOA67nu7xqjg9CbUSIAU5WFceSs46ecFq_KLEteBW5uCpEAN5\/s1600\/190720-2.png\" imageanchor=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 3% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" border=\"0\" height=\"190\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEixvX_aIOLCzXcRpSTsZLQUEg8bwxp5ZdU4r0yuR-W3PTBwbO9rRAf8n2hDXZ23npxlQxvrPk0kx49yP24Kb6ljdSIzsYtiOA67nu7xqjg9CbUSIAU5WFceSs46ecFq_KLEteBW5uCpEAN5\/s400\/190720-2.png\" title=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 3% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" width=\"400\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>\n<i>UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 3% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value, Click to enlarge<\/i><\/p>\n<p>A 3% withdrawal rate after the expenses of the ETF\u2019s was chosen as it is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2014\/05\/further-exploration-of-safe-withdrawal.html\">very close to Wade Pfau\u2019s research<\/a>\u00a0which for a UK investor with 50% UK stocks and 50% UK bonds showed that historically a safe withdrawal rate to not extinguish your wealth in a 30 year period was 3.05%.<\/p>\n<p>Our 3% drawdown retirees, or \u00a33,000 withdrawn per annum, which are loosely following Pfau\u2019s simulation with 50% equity \/ 50% gilts portfolio\u2019s are up 1% and 12% (last year up 2% and down 10%).\u00a0 Even for a 40 year retirement that\u2019s not looking to bad to me.<\/p>\n<p>Looking over the 6 portfolios the best case portfolio is now up in real terms by 10% while the worst is down by 16%.\u00a0 \u00a0This is a slight degradation on one year ago which were at best up 9% while at worst were in the red wealth wise by 13%.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">\nA 2.5% Initial Withdrawal Rate<\/h2>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj1cLtnqCxFf8rhyphenhyphen2w38unAAPWjNhfmhEbQ8GwBb0xLWRtP8jIasmVStYUkyiZNDo3HkHzlNe-OMsPeGnjHZUUsoyMmFv1iLIbFjp3iz2fZfcG41IQKamk_WBMXO3h5-bsx02cXaagKeeXV\/s1600\/190720-3.png\" imageanchor=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 2.5% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" border=\"0\" height=\"152\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj1cLtnqCxFf8rhyphenhyphen2w38unAAPWjNhfmhEbQ8GwBb0xLWRtP8jIasmVStYUkyiZNDo3HkHzlNe-OMsPeGnjHZUUsoyMmFv1iLIbFjp3iz2fZfcG41IQKamk_WBMXO3h5-bsx02cXaagKeeXV\/s320\/190720-3.png\" title=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 2.5% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" width=\"320\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>\n<i>UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 2.5% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value, Click to enlarge<\/i><\/p>\n<p>\nI\u2019ve put this withdrawal rate in as it most closely represents the situation I have settled on, went into FIRE with and will reFIRE with.\u00a0 I\u2019ve planned around <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2014\/05\/further-exploration-of-safe-withdrawal.html\">a 2.5% withdrawal rate<\/a>\u00a0and a 40 year retirement.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2016\/06\/my-early-retirement-financial-strategy.html\">My FIRE portfolio<\/a>\u00a0is now set.\u00a0 Against these demonstration portfolios asset allocation wise it sits almost midway between the 50% FTSE 100 \/ 50% UK Index Linked Gilts and the 75% FTSE 100 \/ 25% UK Index Linked Gilts.\u00a0 If these were my only asset classes and if I had have pulled the FIRE\u2019ing pin back at the end of 2006 then in real terms my wealth would now be up around 4% in real terms.\u00a0 Ideally I\u2019d like my wealth to not deplete in real terms, it\u2019s one of the reasons I want to try and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.retirementinvestingtoday.com\/2015\/09\/living-off-dividends-in-early-retirement.html\">just live off dividends<\/a>, so a 4% wealth gain would have me in a good place.\u00a0 I\u2019m therefore still happy with a 2.5% plus investment expenses withdrawal rate.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">\nA 2% Initial Withdrawal Rate<\/h2>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9Puj9IInRBnI9OkVsEuTGp3XJgtYBV9IsHPREUMY200roieCXewtoW_xVWOt1mEPnPCpCaKqlMDzeZrVGCbbJigftkpoSsKt8gE5Arayq4d0MKCKgJ0QRllwltGUCGL0X05gsaZIjIR7n\/s1600\/190720-4.png\" imageanchor=\"1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 2% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" border=\"0\" height=\"152\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9Puj9IInRBnI9OkVsEuTGp3XJgtYBV9IsHPREUMY200roieCXewtoW_xVWOt1mEPnPCpCaKqlMDzeZrVGCbbJigftkpoSsKt8gE5Arayq4d0MKCKgJ0QRllwltGUCGL0X05gsaZIjIR7n\/s320\/190720-4.png\" title=\"UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 2% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value\" width=\"320\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>\n<i>UK Retiree Real Portfolio Value, \u00a3100,000 Initial Value, 2% Withdrawal Rate, 30 June Value, Click to enlarge<\/i><\/p>\n<p>\nThis should be a very conservative drawdown rate which means it requires a lot of wealth to support.\u00a0 For example if you desire \u00a320,000 of drawdown per annum then you\u2019re going to need a cool \u00a31,000,000.\u00a0 At this point that is also how it seems to be playing out with our retiree probably having worked too long before retiring.\u00a0 The worst portfolio is flat at 0% with the best now up 28% (was 24% last year) in real terms.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">\nTo Conclude<\/h2>\n<p>This demonstration looks at 24 different portfolio \/ drawdown rate combinations.\u00a0 Of those we now have 10 (was 11 last year) that are still in real inflation adjusted positive territory.\u00a0 Of the 14 that are in the red one is now down 32% but we\u2019re also now fast approaching the half way mark of the much talked about 30 year drawdown period.\u00a0 That\u2019s possibly fine for somebody taking a more traditional retirement but is far from long enough for somebody FIRE\u2019ing very early.\u00a0 This study continually reinforces to me:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<li>the risks associated with living off capital; and\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>that blindly following any mechanical safe withdrawal method could be a dangerous hobby.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nOn the positive side even if a Global Financial Crisis style event were to occur again my portfolio and assumptions might just be able to weather such a storm.<\/p>\n<p>As always DYOR.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another year has passed for our UK early retiree.\u00a0 A year ago I wrote that in the worlds biggest economy, the United States, Donald Trump was starting trade wars and the S&amp;P500 cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio was sitting at 32.0 against a long run average of 16.9.\u00a0 A year on it\u2019s almost d\u00e9j\u00e0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":176227,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[22751,70161,10975,11077,70160,1003],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-176226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-demonstrations","tag-drawdown","tag-income","tag-retirement","tag-sobering","tag-years"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - 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