{"id":175625,"date":"2025-04-07T14:03:33","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T14:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/5g-technology\/is-telecom-a-safe-haven\/"},"modified":"2025-04-07T14:03:33","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T14:03:33","slug":"is-telecom-a-safe-haven","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625","title":{"rendered":"Is telecom a safe haven?"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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\"image002<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

March greetings from Iowa and Missouri.\u00a0 This week\u2019s picture is of Saturday\u2019s peaceful protest on the Kansas City Plaza.\u00a0 While this location is known for weekly demonstrations, the crowd size was larger than normal.\u00a0 It did not interfere with our ability to enjoy the \u201cdawg days\u201d special at\u00a0Charlie Hooper\u2019s\u00a0in the Brookside neighborhood.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s\u00a0Brief\u00a0will be one giant market commentary as we view the general economic slowdown and the trade war as the key items impacting the business world.\u00a0 All industries are impacted, but telecom appears to be less impacted than other tech-focused areas.\u00a0 We will take our best cut at what the key themes will be for the industry \u2013 there are puts and takes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We post an interim\u00a0Brief\u00a0only on Easter weekend (in two weeks) but will resume the full\u00a0Brief\u00a0on April 27th<\/sup>.\u00a0 Here is a current Q1 earnings announcement calendar:\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image016
The Sunday Brief: Is telecom a safe haven? 9<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

One final note \u2013 you\u2019ll be able to\u00a0hear<\/em>\u00a0a bit of\u00a0The Sunday Brief\u00a0in April on Roger Entner\u2019s weekly podcast (likely right around the Easter holiday).\u00a0 For those of you not familiar with\u00a0The Week With Roger<\/em>\u00a0podcast (Spotify link\u00a0here<\/a>; Apple link\u00a0here<\/a>), it\u2019s a short-yet-sweet synopsis of key events in the telecom industry with occasional guests.\u00a0 It\u2019s on our listening list and we hope you\u2019ll consider adding it to yours.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The fortnight that was<\/h2>\n
\"image017
The Sunday Brief: Is telecom a safe haven? 10<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Fab Five lost more than a\u00a0trillion\u00a0dollars in market capitalization this week and has lost more than $2.6\u00a0trillion\u00a0in the first thirteen weeks of the year.\u00a0 Nearly all of the gains the group experienced in 2024 have been wiped out.\u00a0 No stock has been spared \u2013 even Meta\/ Facebook, who had been showing slight gains in the early part of 2025, is now down 14% for 2025 (roughly the same as Microsoft, who may have found a floor).\u00a0<\/p>\n

We post the spreadsheet behind the above table with each interim\u00a0Brief.\u00a0 In that workbook there is a tab where we track the net debt levels for each Fab Five company.\u00a0 Here is the latest view (a negative net debt number means the company is holding more cash and marketable securities on their balance sheet than debts):\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Screenshot
The Sunday Brief: Is telecom a safe haven? 11<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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\"image003<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

From a liquidity perspective, each of the Fab Five have adequate resources to survive not only this downturn, but probably several more ($268 billion more near-term holdings\u00a0than total debt).\u00a0 And, with the risk-free rate (10-year Treasury note) hovering at 4.0%, any borrowing would be at historically low levels.\u00a0 We have emphasized in our quarterly earnings recaps that the real \u201cSilicon Valley Bank\u201d resides in the Fab Five Treasury departments and think that extra punctuation might be needed now.\u00a0 Share buybacks might be slowed for a few quarters, and a few marginal projects might be suspended, but the Fab Five are still worth more than $10 trillion dollars and that\u2019s not likely to fall much in the near term.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While the Fab Five market capitalizations are dropping, the companies that each of the Fab Five have their eyes on (private or public) are also declining.\u00a0 As most remember, Amazon was thwarted by the previous administration\u2019s Federal Trade Commission in their attempts to purchase iRobot (original announcement\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 $61\/ share \u2013 $1.7 billion all-cash transaction including debt). As of Friday\u2019s close, IRBT\u2019s shares are down 88% since the previous acquisition efforts were terminated, while AMZN is up nearly 10% (see nearby chart courtesy of Yahoo! Finance).\u00a0 Think the Seattle mega cap might make run at them again?\u00a0 Why not?\u00a0<\/p>\n

The same logic applies to online retailers (Amazon), software companies (Microsoft, Amazon, Google), and even other cloud\/ cybersecurity companies (Google, Amazon, Microsoft).\u00a0 If this is a man-made downturn and not indicative of larger, longer-term economic malaise (we are reasonably sure that\u2019s the situation), then valuations are probably right for some selective, highly accretive acquisitions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Speaking of acquisitions, T-Mobile closed their acquisition of Lumos this week (announcement\u00a0here<\/a>).\u00a0 Now the fun begins.\u00a0 According to\u00a0broadbandnow.com<\/a>, Lumos has a presence in these markets:\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image011
The Sunday Brief: Is telecom a safe haven? 12<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There are many more states shown on the Lumos website\u00a0here<\/a>.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how we subdivide Lumos networks:<\/p>\n

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\"image004<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
    \n
  1. Legacy Lumos, DSL + Fiber market.<\/strong>\u00a0 Example:\u00a0 Zip code\u00a027265<\/a>\u00a0which is north of High Point, NC (link is to Google Maps zip code coverage area).\u00a0 Median home sale price is $253,000 according to\u00a0Zillow<\/a>\u00a0and projected to rise 3-4% in 2025.\u00a0 Broadbandnow.com indicates that Lumos covers 75% of this zip code with either fiber or DSL.\u00a0 We think T-Mobile will want to increase the penetration of fiber to 95-100%.\u00a0 Augment that with fixed wireless, particularly at the exchange boundaries.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  2. Legacy Lumos, (nearly) full Fiber market<\/strong>.\u00a0 Example: Zip code\u00a022980<\/a>\u00a0which covers Waynesboro, Virginia.\u00a0 From our look at the\u00a0FCC map<\/a>\u00a0it looks like most of the area is covered by fiber.\u00a0 Drive wireless penetration, particularly for small businesses.\u00a0 Leverage Wi-Fi capabilities (including creating a Wi-Fi SSID that can only be accessed by T-Mobile devices) to enhance existing services.\u00a0 Set penetration goal of 70% wireless service by end of 2027.\u00a0 Drive improved home experience through existing Apple relationship (we assume that T-Mobile\u2019s relationship with Apple is multiples stronger than that at the legacy Lumos telco).\u00a0 Edge out with fixed wireless service.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  3. Lumos expansion markets (already established).<\/strong>\u00a0 Example: Zip code 27712 where construction started in 2022.\u00a0 The original\u00a0press release<\/a>\u00a0contained a Lumos proposed construction map (about 18,000 homes and businesses).\u00a0 T-Mobile\u2019s investment will likely complete and expand that plan.\u00a0 We like the Durham\/ Chapel Hill market not only for its favorable demographics, but also because it has GTE\/ Frontier\/ Verizon (Durham), AT&T Fiber (Chapel Hill) and now T-Fiber.\u00a0 Because there is no legacy DSL, T-Mobile has the opportunity to showcase the full suite of capabilities as they expand the market.\u00a0 There also appear to be many opportunities to extend this expansion through additional fiber and fixed wireless deployments.\u00a0<\/li>\n
  4. Expansion markets (new).<\/strong>\u00a0 Greenfield markets represent the greatest opportunity, in our view, to grow market share quickly.\u00a0 Many examples exist in the newest announcements in Indiana (here<\/a>), Illinois (here<\/a>) and Ohio (here<\/a>).\u00a0 It also allows T-Mobile for Business to have a greater role in construction planning.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    We think that both Lumos and Metronet will be highly accretive transactions for the company and wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a few more added as\/after they digest these.\u00a0 As we mentioned nearly a year ago (Brief\u00a0here<\/a>), the value of being a tech retailer\/ marketer in these markets cannot be understated, and the relatively under-penetrated nature of these markets should add billions of wireless Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) to the company. There are several tens of thousands of homes to be converted, however, with some additional build assistance coming from the\u00a0FCC\u2019s Enhanced ACAM program<\/a>\u00a0(a Lumos subsidiary, North State Telephone, is one of the North Carolina recipients).\u00a0<\/p>\n

    Finally, one of the interesting items that may have missed your radar is the fight for the Apple Card network and banking relationships as outlined in this article from The Wall Street Journal (here<\/a>).\u00a0 Visa offering up a signing bonus of $100 million to Apple is a drop in the bucket for the credit card company, but we think that the easiest path for Apple would be to stay with their existing network provider (Mastercard).\u00a0 We expect an announcement on any changes to the credit card network in May and the bank over the summer.\u00a0 At that time, Goldman Sachs will end their costly foray into consumer banking started in 2019 (see our original article on the Apple Card from that time\u00a0here<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n

    Is telecom a safe haven?\u00a0<\/h2>\n

    This question has come up in various discussions over the past several days.\u00a0 From the market capitalization changes shown above, it appears that some investors view companies like AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile (and to a lesser extent their cable brethren) to be safe havens for equity holdings.\u00a0 The rationale goes as follows:\u00a0<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Communications services are essential and relatively free from downgrades.\u00a0 It is unlikely that we will see a customer downgrade to prepaid services vs. switching to Spectrum, Cox, or Xfinity Mobile if they have a broadband home service.\u00a0 It is equally unlikely that an unlimited customer would downgrade to a legacy \u201ccapped\u201d data service.<\/li>\n
    2. The Big Three demonstrate consistent cash flows even with high capital spending.<\/li>\n
    3. Each of the Big Three pay a dividend (T-Mobile = 1.42%, AT&T = 4.17%, and Verizon = 6.3% yields as of 4\/4).<\/li>\n
    4. Device incentives have a limited drain on capital (relative to network expenditures).<\/li>\n
    5. There are no spectrum auctions on the horizon to balloon debt levels.<\/li>\n
    6. The vast majority of revenues and cash flow are driven by domestic operations (limited foreign exposure).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Each of these arguments is valid, but there are additional dynamics to consider:<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Comcast increased their wireless marketing efforts in the first quarter (to coincide with cable\u2019s seasonal increase in broadband and video marketing efforts).<\/li>\n
      2. Excitement for (and switching activity related to) the iPhone 16 was muted.\u00a0 Apple Intelligence is not ready for prime time (but we think it will take a giant step forward by the end of 2025).<\/li>\n
      3. As a result of the two previous dynamics, marketing and promotional spending did not see the same seasonal promotional drop that has been the rule.<\/li>\n
      4. Business spending will likely curtain prior to consumer spending.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        How each carrier reacts to the current environment will be different.\u00a0 Verizon introduced (here<\/a>) a new marketing program this week for consumers that features three things:<\/p>\n

        \"image014
        The Sunday Brief: Is telecom a safe haven? 13<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

        Extending price locks to wireless products increases peace of mind.\u00a0 Adopting AT&T\u2019s marketing philosophy of promotion equality for new and existing customers removes an additional hurdle from switching back to Verizon.\u00a0 And Verizon\u2019s \u201cbundle and save\u201d marketing is undoubtedly more aggressive than each of their other competitors.\u00a0 Adding a checking account and a credit card option to the communications bundle seems forced and extraneous, but it might be an effective way to buttress increased merchant processing fees.\u00a0<\/p>\n

        T-Mobile\u2019s announcement last week was less sweeping and focused on data (here<\/a>):<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Termination payment assistance (up to $1000) when transitioning to T-Mobile Home Internet<\/li>\n
        2. $300 cash per device to switch to T-Mobile Home Internet<\/li>\n
        3. $20 off the monthly broadband rate if older customers (55+) switch to T-Mobile<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          This announcement was made against a legacy plan price hike of $5 that took effect last Wednesday.\u00a0 The company wasted no time raising prices after their five-year price freeze condition as a part of the Sprint merger had ended.\u00a0 We do not anticipate that churn will rise meaningfully from this increase, but changes like this always add something to the switcher pool and probably drove Verizon\u2019s price lock message.\u00a0<\/p>\n

          AT&T is continuing to aggressively push bundled pricing and it\u2019s AT&T Guarantee as an acquisition strategy.\u00a0 We think bundling is working well for them today (not sure if the guarantee is resonating with prospective switchers, however), and expect AT&T to surprise (to the upside) the most when earnings come out later this month.\u00a0<\/p>\n

          One of the questions we were asked this week concerned smartphone pricing and whether carriers would reduce promotions.\u00a0 As of April 6th<\/sup>, there has been no price change for the iPhone 16 on Apple\u2019s website, and Cupertino has not announced any sort of hike mirroring the 54% tariff rate that hit China on Saturday.\u00a0 Assuming some sort of price increase occurs, however, here are ways carriers could reduce the impact:<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. It\u2019s likely that the carriers would reduce their incentives prior to raising prices.\u00a0 Apple could also reduce their advertising support given to each carrier.<\/li>\n
          2. Lower trade-in credits seem like a logical lever to pull (which would create a gap between third-party trade-in companies and the carriers).<\/li>\n
          3. There is a definite possibility that the carriers could yet again increase the number of months a consumer pays for the device (from 30 to 36 or even 40).\u00a0 Whether T-Mobile would move to a longer number of months (currently at 24 for all plans) to pay for the device is unclear.<\/li>\n
          4. It\u2019s possible that one or more carriers could include limited device protection with all new devices sold (a high-margin product).\u00a0 Spectrum Mobile tried this $5\/mo. solution in 2024 but pulled the offer quickly after a few weeks (more here).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            Bottom line:<\/u><\/strong>\u00a0Telecom is safer than many other industries and is relatively immune from economically driven downgrades.\u00a0 Competition continues to be strong, however, and the intensity of the fight for bundled customers is increasing.\u00a0 While the industry might show stable characteristics as a whole, each company is facing different dynamics that could meaningfully move their market capitalization.\u00a0<\/p>\n

            That\u2019s it for this week.\u00a0 In the next\u00a0Brief\u00a0(April 27th), we will dive into earnings results.\u00a0 Until then, if you have friends who would like to be on the email distribution, please have them send an email to\u00a0sundaybrief@gmail.com<\/a>\u00a0and we will include them on the list (or they can sign up directly through the\u00a0website<\/a>).<\/p>\n

            Finally \u2013\u00a0Go Royals<\/a>,\u00a0Sporting KC<\/a>, and\u00a0Davidson Basketball<\/a>!\u00a0<\/p>\n

            Important disclosure:\u00a0The opinions expressed in\u00a0<\/em>The Sunday Brief<\/em>\u00a0are those of Jim Patterson and Patterson Advisory Group, LLC, and do not reflect those of CellSite Solutions, LLC, or Fort Point Capital.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            March greetings from Iowa and Missouri.\u00a0 This week\u2019s picture is of Saturday\u2019s peaceful protest on the Kansas City Plaza.\u00a0 While this location is known for weekly demonstrations, the crowd size was larger than normal.\u00a0 It did not interfere with our ability to enjoy the \u201cdawg days\u201d special at\u00a0Charlie Hooper\u2019s\u00a0in the Brookside neighborhood.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 This week\u2019s\u00a0Brief\u00a0will be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":175626,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12020],"tags":[16934,2116,14943],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-175625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-5g-technology","tag-haven","tag-safe","tag-telecom"],"yoast_head":"\nIs telecom a safe haven? - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is telecom a safe haven? - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"March greetings from Iowa and Missouri.\u00a0 This week\u2019s picture is of Saturday\u2019s peaceful protest on the Kansas City Plaza.\u00a0 While this location is known for weekly demonstrations, the crowd size was larger than normal.\u00a0 It did not interfere with our ability to enjoy the \u201cdawg days\u201d special at\u00a0Charlie Hooper\u2019s\u00a0in the Brookside neighborhood.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 This week\u2019s\u00a0Brief\u00a0will be […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-07T14:03:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image002-18.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"802\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"502\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\"},\"headline\":\"Is telecom a safe haven?\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-07T14:03:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625\"},\"wordCount\":2212,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image002-18.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Haven\",\"SAFE\",\"telecom\"],\"articleSection\":[\"5G Technology\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=175625\",\"name\":\"Is telecom a safe haven? 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