{"id":173406,"date":"2025-04-06T10:11:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T10:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-march-30-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-06T10:11:11","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T10:11:11","slug":"stock-market-outlook-march-30-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=173406","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 March 30 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 30th = <span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600\">Neutral<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend as we close out Q1.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 ( <em>$SPX<\/em> )<\/a> fell 1.5% last week.\u00a0 The index is ~5% below the 50-day moving average and ~3% below the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8790\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8790\" data-attachment-id=\"8790\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/30\/stock-market-outlook-march-30-2025\/2025-03-30-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"1329,990\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-30-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Mar 30 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8790\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"477\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8790\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Mar 30 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Average Directional Index <em>( ADX )<\/em> remains bearish. On-Balance Volume <em>( OBV )<\/em> moved back to it\u2019s trendline, so the signal shifts back to neutral.<\/p>\n<p>Institutional investors wouldn\u2019t or couldn\u2019t provide a follow-through day for the currently rally attempt; the 3\/24 move didn\u2019t have enough trading volume and prices immediately retreated from resistance.\u00a0 It\u2019s still possible we get a follow-through day this week, but distribution days between the start of a rally and the follow-through are never a good sign and we had 2 last week.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8791\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8791\" data-attachment-id=\"8791\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/30\/stock-market-outlook-march-30-2025\/2025-03-30-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,949\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-30-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 14 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8791\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"458\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8791\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 14 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Consumer Staples <em>( $XLP )<\/em> was the only sector to secure a gain last week, while Technology <em>( $XLK )<\/em> led to the downside.\u00a0 Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities <em>( $XLP, $XLV, $XLU )<\/em> moved to Neutral bias.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8793\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8793\" data-attachment-id=\"8793\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/30\/stock-market-outlook-march-30-2025\/2025-03-30-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1321,956\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-30-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 14 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8793\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"463\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8793\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 14 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Low beta <em>( $SPLV )<\/em> provided some shelter from last week\u2019s selling, while High Beta sold off hard <em>( $SPHB )<\/em>.\u00a0 Not changes in bias and still a bearish picture overall.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8794\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8794\" data-attachment-id=\"8794\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/30\/stock-market-outlook-march-30-2025\/2025-03-30-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-asset_class_performance.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,704\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-30-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for various asset classes&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 14 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-asset_class_performance.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8794\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-30-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8794\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 14 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Gold <em>( $GLD<\/em> ) was the best performing asset last week, while U.S. equities <em>( $SPY )<\/em> were the worst.\u00a0 No change in bias; defensive assets remain the strongest.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>Leading off with a a bit of housekeeping: corrected an issue with the performance tables, specifically the \u201cReturns since Bias Shift\u201d for the Bearish designation.\u00a0 A minor issue, but after review, one that provides a great reminder to avoid deploying capital into bearish sectors, styles, and asset classes!<\/p>\n<p>The latest rally attempt did, in fact, reveal itself to be a counter-trend bounce:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Until we see more shifts to bullish bias by sectors and styles, as well as breakouts by individual growth stocks, consider the recent move as a counter-trend bounce.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>2024 Q4 GDP got a slight increase for the final estimate, coming in at +2.4%.\u00a0 Unfortunately, that means slowing growth, since it\u2019s 0.8% lower than Q4 2023.\u00a0 Q1 2025 GDP is likely to \u201cdisappoint\u201d again, coming in around 1% (for reference, 2024 Q1 was 1.6%).<\/p>\n<p>February PCE showed no movement in the headline data.\u00a0 Core came in at 2.8%, higher than January\u2019s 2.7%*, which was also adjusted higher from 2.6%.\u00a0 So inflation remains \u201csticky\u201d, and that\u2019s prior to any potential impact from new tariffs.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>PCE (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.7%*<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>This week, we get job and survey data, in the form of ISM PMI results, JOLTS, and Non-Farm Payrolls. From a volatility perspective, the big event this week comes on Wednesday (April 2), when the current administration is expected to announce an updated trade policy, centered on reciprocal tariffs.\u00a0 There\u2019s been a lot of mixed messaging leading up to the event, and you know how market participants react to uncertainty\u2026they hedge and \/or sell.\u00a0 And remember those 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports? April 2 is the expiration date for those as well.<\/p>\n<p>With slowing economic growth, sticky inflation, and the threat of tariffs exacerbating both, don\u2019t be surprised when you hear talk of \u201cstagflation\u201d, or even the \u201cR\u201d word (i.e. recession), hitting the airwaves in April.\u00a0 But by that time, it\u2019ll be old news, since U.S. equities showed their hand back in February.\u00a0 Instead, use your time to manage your portfolio, making sure you\u2019ve got minimal exposure to bearish trends, while maximizing allocations to assets, sectors, and styles that are moving to and sustaining a bullish bias.\u00a0 Currently, that\u2019s investments in precious metals, European equities, or U.S. bonds.<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 30th = Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Neutral ANALYSISThe stock market outlook remains in a downtrend as we close out Q1. The S&amp;P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1.5% last week.\u00a0 The index is ~5% below the 50-day [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":173407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[7095,11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-173406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-march","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 March 30 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=173406\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 March 30 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 30th = Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Neutral ANALYSISThe stock market outlook remains in a downtrend as we close out Q1. 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