{"id":150337,"date":"2025-03-22T20:15:56","date_gmt":"2025-03-22T20:15:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/december-2022-update-and-2022-review\/"},"modified":"2025-03-22T20:15:56","modified_gmt":"2025-03-22T20:15:56","slug":"december-2022-update-and-2022-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=150337","title":{"rendered":"December 2022 Update and 2022 Review"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A belated update for 2022 as I have been procrastinating, as
\nusual. Wishing everyone a Happy Chinese New Year and may the Year of the Rabbit
\nbring you good health, happiness and wealth. Wealth is placed third, because
\nsimply having this without the first two is meaningless. <\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n


\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2022 was largely a good time to deploy capital \u2013 being a net
\npurchaser of equities means that I am happier when stocks go down rather than
\nup \u2013 giving me opportunities to buy more on the cheap. My invested capital
\nincreased by 72% from a year ago (although I had invested more, as this does
\nnot account for capital losses), while dividends received increased by 75%.
\nWhen I planned out my FIRE journey in Dec 2021, I projected \u201ctotal net worth\u201d
\ntargets for each year \u2013 I am glad to say that for end-2022, I achieved 102% of
\nmy target. Some other thoughts to wrap up the year:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Diversification<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019m invested across SG, China, US and Developed Markets. The
\ncurrent target asset allocation would be to have 50% SG exposure, 20% in China and 30% in US\/DM.
\nThis is still a work in progress as I\u2019m yet to be fully invested. <\/span><\/p>\n

I think 2022 highlights the risks of overly focusing on a
\nspecific market \u2013 often the US. What\u2019s interesting is that the often-overlooked
\nSG market is one of the top performers globally. I\u2019d rather over-diversify and
\nsettle for a lower average return, than expose myself to huge idiosyncratic
\nrisks related to a specific company, country or sector, as many have learnt the
\nhard way in 2022. As mentioned in my blog post a year ago (\u201cSeeking FIRE \u2013 Route to Financial Freedom\u201d<\/a><\/i>), I am targeting a 5.5% long-term CAGR on my 100% equity
\nportfolio, which I believe is reasonable.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Consistency<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/div>\n

The figure above illustrates how I have consistently deployed capital in every
\nmonth except for November. Generally, when I\u2019m buying ETFs, I aim to adopt a
\nDCA approach to build up my positions. With the exception of buying the Nikkei
\n225 in the late 1980s, I don\u2019t think you can do too wrong by accumulating broad
\nmarket ETFs. In 2023, I aim to increase the proportion of my portfolio
\nallocated to ETFs.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Skepticism\u00a0& Biases<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Most people are aware of the inherent conflict of interest
\nthat banks and brokers have, that is, you\u2019ll usually see research reports advising
\npeople to \u201cBuy\u201d stocks, because these firms are incentivised to get people to
\ntrade more frequently.<\/span><\/p>\n

But when it comes to taking advice from Youtubers\/Finance Influencers,
\nI find it ironic that few people realise that conflicts of interest exist as
\nwell, albeit from a different angle. There is a clear conflict of interest
\nbecause sensational and click-bait headlines draw the most views, thus these
\n\u201cgurus\u201d are incentivised to make bold claims about \u201cwhen the Fed pivots\u201d, or
\nthat \u201cthe market has bottomed\u201d. Basing your investment decisions on these often
\ndoes not end well. <\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, be skeptical\u00a0whenever consuming such content, and
\nalways do your own due diligence. If I ever become a content creator, please
\napply the same level of skepticism\u00a0to me as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dec 2022 Summary<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/div>\n


<\/span><\/p>\n

For Dec \u201922, I mainly increased my positions in S-Reits via
\nSyfe Reit+. I had intended to initiate positions in DigiCore Reit and Keppel
\nPacific Oak Reit (\u201cKORE\u201d), but these did not reach my intended entry levels.
\nAfter Manulife Reit reported a significant decline in asset valuations which
\nbrought their gearing level to just a whisker away from the 50% limit, I think
\nI will hold off buying KORE now. I think the day of reckoning for Reits has
\nfinally arrived \u2013 where capital values are likely to fall and put pressure on
\ngearing levels. But I must add, that I had expected the same scenario to play
\nout nearly 3 years ago during the March 2020 Covid crash, which ultimately did
\nnot materialise. For now, I think my exposure to S-Reits is still manageable at
\n8%, as I am passively holding most of the blue-chip S-Reits.<\/span><\/p>\n

The \u201cactively managed\u201d component of my US portfolio has
\ndeclined relative to my SG stock picks since Q3 \u201922, this is largely due to my
\nefforts to increase my dividend income. However, I expect to increase my US
\nallocation and am looking at GOOGL and ADBE. These are my top picks, although
\nwe shall see what other opportunities surface along the way. <\/span><\/p>\n

As a continuation from the above about \u201cbeing skeptical\u201d, I
\nam not going to make any predictions on what 2023 will look like for the
\nmarkets. Instead, I\u2019ll say, invest not because you expect the markets to go up
\ntomorrow, this month, or even this year. Rather, as a long-term investor you
\nshould be investing only because of one simple reason \u2013 you expect that in a capitalistic
\nsociety, capital (being an asset owner) will outperform labour (being an
\nemployee) in the long run. Thus, you believe being an asset owner is the best
\nway to protect your capital against inflation, be it equities, fixed income,
\ncommodities or real estate.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2023, my goals are, in the order of priority, (1)
\nincrease dividend income, (2) increase proportion of passive investments, and
\n(3) work towards my target asset allocation of 50% SG, 20% China and 30% US\/DM.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Pro-work vs Pro-FIRE<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Let me end off with a short section on the pro-work vs
\npro-FIRE debate. I know I\u2019ve written on this multiple times, but a LinkedIn
\npost by someone who got retrenched by Google yesterday made me feel like writing on this
\nagain. <\/span><\/p>\n

The author of the post wrote that after 16 years at Google,
\nhe was simply laid off via email. One line in the post stood out for me. He
\nwrote:\u00a0\u201cThis also just drives home that work is not your life, and employers
\n— especially big, faceless ones like Google — see you as 100% disposable. Live
\nlife, not work<\/b>.\u201d<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

To me, the fact that employees are largely dispensable forms
\nmy baseline when thinking about FIRE. Reaching FI is your insurance policy against the unpredictable nature of corporate life, while having the choice to RE gives you the power to live your own life, rather than being stuck on the hedonic treadmill. Thus, when people say things like \u201cyou
\nshould work harder, create more value for your company\u201d and so on\u2026 Please don\u2019t
\nbe na\u00efve and think that one can be indispensable. Employment is simply a means
\nto an end to me \u2013 to build my life<\/i><\/b>, and my dreams<\/i><\/b>. At the end of the day we are all dispensable. The earlier you realise that, the better, because that means that you’ll start working towards building your safety net.<\/span><\/p>\n

I find it absurd when pro-work folks say \u201cI like to work. So,
\nyou should like to work too. Please don\u2019t retire early\u201d. Because on the other
\nhand, pro-FIRE folks rarely go around telling people \u201cI want to retire early. So,
\nyou should retire early too. Please stop working\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, a well-intentioned person might say \u201cPlease don\u2019t
\nretire early until your have<\/i> an absolutely robust financial plan\u201d <\/i>I
\nthink that\u2019s totally valid. I welcome these comments, which help pro-FIRE folks
\nidentify any blind spots in their early retirement plans.<\/span><\/p>\n

I think when it comes to the pro-work vs early retirement
\ndebate, there\u2019s an implied philosophical perspective as to whether FIRE folks
\nare \u201ccontributing\u201d to society. Let\u2019s not be na\u00efve here and I\u2019ll say that I\u2019m
\nfully aware that if everyone wanted to retire early, society is screwed. We can
\nalready see that happening in the US, with the falling labour force
\nparticipation rate post-Covid partially contributing to inflation, as there\u2019s a
\nshortage of workers who decided to retire during the pandemic (hey \u2013 life is short;
\nalthough many had the tailwind of rising markets).<\/span><\/p>\n

But that\u2019s a bigger issue for governments and corporations
\nto tackle, not me. Perhaps some form of wealth tax, dividend withholding tax and\/or
\ncapital gains tax will address the issue and make it more prohibitive to retire
\nearly. But we all know the in capitalistic<\/i> Singapore, this is unlikely
\nat the moment. We\u2019d be shooting ourselves in the foot given our aspirations to
\nbecome a leading wealth management hub.<\/span><\/p>\n

Personally, I view the decision for one\u2019s retirement age from
\na laissez-faire<\/i> perspective \u2013 that ultimately, one has to be responsible
\nfor the choices they make, and deal with the consequences of their choices. The
\nchoice to retire early or not should be entirely up to the individual, once a
\ncertain level of financial independence has been achieved. I don\u2019t think I am
\nin the position to impose my views on others. I can only share my perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, if you\u2019re pursuing financial independence and early retirement,
\nmay the fire<\/i> in you continue to burn strongly. We will get there. Have a
\ngood year ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 A belated update for 2022 as I have been procrastinating, as usual. Wishing everyone a Happy Chinese New Year and may the Year of the Rabbit bring you good health, happiness and wealth. 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