{"id":144936,"date":"2025-03-20T03:41:16","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T03:41:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/2025s-best-oxymoron-condo-offer-dates\/"},"modified":"2025-03-20T03:41:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T03:41:16","slug":"2025s-best-oxymoron-condo-offer-dates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=144936","title":{"rendered":"2025’s Best Oxymoron: “Condo Offer Dates”"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cIf a tree falls in the woods, and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?\u201d<\/p>\n

I think the answer is \u201cYes, but\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

Then you can fill in the rest.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s sort of like asking, \u201cIf it\u2019s your birthday, and you bought yourself a cake, but you have no friends, and you\u2019re watching the candles burn, alone, is it\u00a0really\u00a0<\/em>celebrating?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYes, but\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

Pick your analogy, if you will.\u00a0 If you must.\u00a0 And for today\u2019s post \u2013 you\u00a0must<\/em>.<\/p>\n

But when I picture the would-be seller, sitting at the kitchen table on \u201coffer night,\u201d all geared up and ready to work, with those HB-II pencils all freshly sharpened and lined up, like that dork in your grade nine math class (that was me, by the way\u2026), I can\u2019t help but think of somebody sitting alone in front of birthday candles.<\/p>\n

I mean, even if the tree\u00a0does<\/em> make a sound when it falls, nobody is going to hear a damn.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re 2 1\/2 months into the real estate calendar and for the life of me, I can\u2019t understand why\u00a0any<\/em> condo seller is setting an \u201coffer date\u201d right now.<\/p>\n

Well, that\u2019s not entirely true.\u00a0 I\u00a0can<\/em> understand why; it\u2019s that I don\u2019t agree with the \u201cwhy.\u201d<\/p>\n

The way I see it, there are two reasons why a seller lists a property with an \u201coffer date\u201d in this condo market:<\/p>\n

1) The property is something really special, unique, rare, and sought-after.<\/p>\n

2) The seller is completely out of ideas and is grasping at straws.<\/p>\n

Those two reasons are complete opposites.<\/p>\n

That<\/em> is the story of the 2025 condo market thus far!<\/p>\n

Recall that in early-February, when I reviewed the January TRREB stats with you, I showed you that the\u00a0absorption rate<\/em> in the month of January was a paltry\u00a025.1%<\/strong> in the 416 and\u00a025.6%<\/strong> in the 905.<\/p>\n

In February, those numbers ticked up modestly to 30.9% and 28.2% respectively, but suffice it to say, the absorption data is still really, really week.<\/p>\n

Just look at the five-year chart:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The optimist says, \u201cOur lime green friend is trending\u00a0up<\/em>!\u201d<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s really no sugar-coating this.\u00a0 Condo buyers are few and far between and we\u2019re looking at historically-low absorption rates.<\/p>\n

So when I see somebody setting an \u201coffer date\u201d for a condo, I just don\u2019t understand it.<\/p>\n

A few weeks ago, I was in my brokerage meeting and agents were announcing their new listings.<\/p>\n

One agent talked about his new downtown condo listing as I focused intently on my game of brickbreaker<\/em> on my BlackBerry; er, maybe I was playing\u00a0snake<\/em> on my Nokia 9800, I can\u2019t quite remember.\u00a0 In any event, my ears perked up when I heard him say, \u201c\u2026..and we\u2019re holding back offers until the following Monday.\u201d<\/p>\n

Huh?<\/p>\n

What?<\/p>\n

Wait, I hear you.\u00a0 I meant\u2026.<\/p>\n

\u2026.huh?\u00a0 WHAT????<\/p>\n

I mean, if a tree falls in the woods and all.\u00a0 Right?<\/p>\n

Holding back offers on a C- condo in a D- market is a complete and utter waste of time, effort, energy, strategy, and it might actually work against the seller, agent, and listing.<\/p>\n

Before we go any further, some of you might be thinking that there\u00a0is<\/em> something to be said for \u201cgoing against the grain,\u201d or how in difficult times, \u201cone must get creative\u201d in an attempt to \u201cmake something happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

I buy that.\u00a0 Just not in the downtown condo market in March of 2025.<\/p>\n

The problem I see is this:<\/p>\n

\n

It\u2019s a buyer\u2019s market.\u00a0 Setting an offer date is something that\u2019s done in a seller\u2019s market.\u00a0 Buyers, in a buyers\u2019 market, want to work with sellers who know and act<\/em> like it\u2019s a buyer\u2019s market.\u00a0 Buyers, in a buyer\u2019s market, aren\u2019t going to work with sellers who act like it\u2019s a seller\u2019s market.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Personally, if I see a condo listed for $799,900 \u201cwith an offer date,\u201d I\u2019m going to assume that the seller wants something stupid, and\/or is overvaluing the condo and underestimating how poor the condo market currently is.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou catch more flies with honey,\u201d the saying goes.\u00a0 So why not be the listing agent, seller, and property that rolls out the red carpet for buyers instead of the ones who puff out their chests as they sink to the bottom of the sea?<\/p>\n

I was very curious about the actual statistics on this so far in 2025, and since I have absolutely no life, I sat down on Sunday afternoon to download an uncanny amount of data.<\/p>\n

I looked at\u00a0every<\/em> sale so far in 2025 in C01 and C08 (aka \u201cdowntown\u201d) and sorted the data by\u00a0sale-to-list ratio.<\/em><\/p>\n

The question I wanted to answer was this:<\/p>\n

What percentage of condominium sales sold for\u00a0over<\/em> the list price?<\/p>\n

\n

I would hazard a guess that it\u2019s about 5-8%.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

While I maintain that \u201cunder-listing\u201d a condo in today\u2019s market and setting an offer date is a poor strategy, that doesn\u2019t mean people aren\u2019t trying it.<\/p>\n

Before you ask the question \u2013 no, I don\u2019t have stats on \u201coffer date success rates.\u201d\u00a0 That would mean downloading every single\u00a0unsold<\/em>\u00a0and terminated<\/em> listing and scrolling through the notes to see which had offer dates.<\/p>\n

So where does my 5-8% guess land me?<\/p>\n

Well, outside the bell curve, it seems\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That\u2019s crazy to me.<\/p>\n

11.6% might not sound like a lot, but I have no idea who\u2019s \u201cbidding\u201d on condos in this market.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t understand this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Good on the seller and the listing agent here for selling a junior-one-bedroom condo in a tough market.<\/p>\n

But who lined up to bid on this?<\/p>\n

Who adhered to the \u201coffer date?\u201d<\/p>\n

Look at the\u00a0days on market<\/em>: 19.<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s waiting 19 days to \u201cbid\u201d on a 400-something square foot condo in this market?<\/p>\n

I can\u2019t believe this worked.<\/p>\n

But for every\u00a0attempt<\/em> at this, how many failed?\u00a0 We don\u2019t have that data, unfortunately, but I would have to think based on emprical evidence, the answer would be \u201ca heck of a lot more than last year, and the year before, and the year before\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaking of which, what\u00a0about<\/em> last year?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the same data set:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Here we see a\u00a0significantly\u00a0<\/em>higher percentage of sales OVER the list price than so far in 2025:<\/p>\n

19.8% in 2024 versus 11.6% in 2025<\/p>\n

Is that \u201cenough to move the needle?\u201d<\/p>\n

I mean, I still can\u2019t believe we\u2019ve seen 11.6% so far in 2025!\u00a0 It\u2019s crazy to me!<\/p>\n

But yeah, if we want to ask the question: \u201cShould this change the strategy?\u201d then I would argue it\u2019s a big enough difference to necessitate a change.<\/p>\n

A drop from 19.8%, which still isn\u2019t a big number, all the way down to 11.6% would have me asking, again, \u201cWhy would\u00a0anybody<\/em> list low and hold back offers in this market?\u201d<\/p>\n

As for 2023, the figures are even higher:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

22.2% versus 19.8%<\/p>\n

Not a major uptick but enough once again to show just how many fewer downtown condos are selling for\u00a0over<\/em> the list price.<\/p>\n

But then if we\u00a0really\u00a0<\/em>wanted to demonstrate just how much things have changed since the \u201cpeak,\u201d we would look back one further year.<\/p>\n

2022.<\/p>\n

Ah, what a crazy year.\u00a0 And even though the market changed significantly in April and remained lukewarm throughout the rest of the year, the first 2 1\/2 months show us just how wild things were.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s re-run the same data as above for 2022:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

No, that is not a typo.<\/p>\n

19.8% and 22.2% in 2024 and 2023, but yes, a ridiculous\u00a067.8%\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>in the same time period in 2022.<\/p>\n

It was absolutely absurd.<\/p>\n

But we have to remember that back in 2021 and 2022, this was a typical condo sale:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yep, pretty typical.<\/p>\n

I can\u2019t tell you how many listings I had for basic, nothing-special condos that resulted in 15-20 offers.<\/p>\n

Having said that, marketing\u00a0did<\/em> play a role in this.\u00a0 We pimped the heck out of every listing we had, and back then, buyers were overcome with emotion and the listings that looked the best, sold the best.<\/p>\n

But I\u2019d be lying if I said that in 2021 and 2022, even some poorly-presented condos by some less-than-stellar listing agents still received multiple offers.<\/p>\n

So put the last four years together and it looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s pretend that you\u2019re a would-be condo seller.<\/p>\n

What do\u00a0you\u00a0<\/em>think about the \u201cunder-list, hold-back offer\u201d strategy?<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re on your seventh listing, then sure, I understand.\u00a0 But if you\u2019re on your seventh listing, you have bigger problems, notably that you\u2019re not accepting current market conditions, otherwise you wouldn\u2019t\u00a0be<\/em> on your seventh listing!<\/p>\n

As I said at the onset, I understand this \u201cstrategy\u201d when it\u2019s a crazy person on their seventh listing and I understand this strategy if you have a renovated hard-loft at 993 Queen Street West with a size and layout that hasn\u2019t been seen on the open market in two years.<\/p>\n

But for the\u00a0rest<\/em>?<\/p>\n

I feel like you\u2019re just alienating the buyer pool.<\/p>\n

Setting an offer date for a condo in today\u2019s market is just asking to be left alone on offer night.<\/p>\n

But if you like blowing out birthday candles alone, then have at it\u2026<\/p>\n