I think I can speak for many \u2018Bama fans when I say that the arrival of the NCAA Tournament brings relief rather than trepidation. Seeing someone like \u201cjust Duke\u201d is a far gentler landing than what we \u2018Bama has already faced, as the 2025 Tide played the hardest schedule in the history of the sport. <\/p>\n
How tough was this road? <\/p>\n
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- Alabama played 27 of its 33 games against teams inside the Ken Pom Top 75. Its easiest contest was a true road game to a small city closer to the Canadian border than is the drive from Starkville to Tuscaloosa. <\/li>\n
- Alabama played 3 of last year\u2019s Elite 8, none at home \u2014 in all, it played 7 of last year\u2019s Sweet 16 \u2014 again, none at home. <\/li>\n
- 6 of its 7 midmajor and low-major opponents either won their conference outright or finished no worse than semifinalists. And even the outlier, North Dakota, was a true road game.<\/li>\n
- In its 33-game season, Alabama played 25 unique opponents all going to tournaments. Only South Carolina, North Dakota, and LSU were ineligible for postseason play \u2014 and two of those opponents are inside the KenPom Top 88<\/li>\n
- Of its 25 unique opponents eligible for postseason play, Alabama played 20 teams <\/strong>going to the NCAA tournament \u2014 \u2018Bama has literally played almost a third of the field this year. <\/li>\n
- It competed in an SEC that set a record with 14 teams selected to the NCAA Tournament, in a season where the SEC had the single most dominant one-year performance by a conference in the sport\u2019s history.<\/li>\n
- And all of those absurd feats were capped off by ending the season with nine <\/em>straight ranked opponents, and only three home games in that span. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
We\u2019re not kidding when we suggest that the NCAA Tournament will be a bit easier than the SEC schedule this year. And, yes, if you\u2019re a \u2018Bama fan, you have to love where the Tide landed. <\/p>\n
So, let\u2019s take a look at the East Region, and why an Alabama run to the Final Four is not as implausible as you might think. All the odds here are courtesy of FanDuel,<\/strong><\/a> who once again, is helping put shoes on the baby and kibble in the food dish. So, thanks to them. <\/p>\n
First up, the bracket:<\/p>\n
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\nShamefully Ignored Heavy Hitter <\/strong><\/h3>\n
The Big 12 was a bit undervalued this season, primarily because the best team in the league was an expansion club \u2014 Houston \u2014 and the 800-pound gorilla in Lawrence underachieved. But there was still plenty of quality beyond the Cougars, including two teams slotted in the East. In particular, the Arizona Wildcats<\/strong> are underseeded a tad. Their natural comp here is Kentucky, another 11-loss team, who landed a 3-seed despite having a weaker non-conference schedule, only a marginally better offense, a much-worse defense, and being rated below \u2018Zona in practically every metric. After a torrid start, Arizona slumped a bit late. But they did play seven Top 25 teams their last dozen to end the year, with just two home games against those quality clubs. A .500 stretch against six ranked teams, including making the B12 finals, and losing a close game to Houston, belies a much better team than they are seeded. They are a legitimate threat to win this region. <\/p>\n
FanDuel <\/strong>loves Arizona more than the Committee does, pegging them at +4000 to cut the nets down \u2014 very respectable odds, up there with the likes of St. John\u2019s<\/a>. A lot of people are picking the Akron Zips as a trendy upset pick, but the Wildcats are going to smoke them. Don\u2019t lose your money like that. <\/p>\n
Nasty Post Teams That Can Be Trouble<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Also out of the Big 12 is another team that can cause serious havoc, though I don\u2019t think they\u2019ve got enough firepower to win this outright: the interior play of BYU <\/strong>is going to be very difficult for most teams to face. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they drew one of the nation\u2019s very best interior defenses: VCU<\/strong>. Any other year, any other matchup, and you can see either or both of these teams advancing to the Sweet 16. But, just as BYU is underseeded, so to are the Rams, who lead the nation in points-against in the post and blocks per shot. Absolute rock fight here in the first round, and whoever emerges is going go to pose some problems for Wisconsin.<\/p>\n
The Lurking Duds<\/strong><\/h3>\n
I\u2019m just not in on Wisconsin<\/strong>. The ostensible 3-seed had a miserable OOC schedule, and they went .500 against the two Power League teams they faced. They also finished poorly in B1G play, going .500 in their last half dozen, including a bad road loss to sub.-500 Penn State. The analytics are nice, sure. And beating Arizona at home was a good win \u2014 but they\u2019re not getting to be in the Kohl Center every game, nor can they rely on getting those home whistles that gifted the Badgers 40 FTA. <\/p>\n
I don\u2019t know what it is: I\u2019ve watched a lot of hoops this year, and the Big 10 has underwhelmed me at almost every turn. The state of guard play in that league, outside of some rare exceptions like Purdue and Rutgers and Maryland, just doesn\u2019t seem like it\u2019s March-ready. And, should UW win their first round game, they draw a filthy BYU or VCU that can expose that weakness too. They may <\/em>make the Sweet 16, but I\u2019m not sold they either get there, or advance much beyond it. Neither are the FanDuel bookies, giving the Badgers some really poor odds<\/a> for a 3-seed (+6000), down there with the likes of Kentucky and Missouri and Maryland. Indeed, with Wisconsin’s heavy <\/em>reliance on the perimeter shot (and they are very good shooters, at least) and pedestrian rebounding, you wonder what\u2019s in the tank if that goes tits-up? The Badgers don\u2019t put the ball on the floor, and if the Rams or Coogs make the interior a no-fly zone and clamp down on the perimeter, can the Badgers generate offense off-script?<\/p>\n
You know who else we\u2019re putting here? <\/p>\n
Both Mississippi State<\/strong> and Baylor<\/strong>. Neither of these teams finished the season strong, with moral victories and beatdowns galore dotting the landscape. Mississippi State, for all their great guard play, routinely gets walloped by athletic frontcourts, which Baylor has. It\u2019s a terrible first round matchup for MSU, unless they suddenly decide to be someone they\u2019re not and <\/em>Hubbard has a generational game. In either event, the winner is going to be smothered by the Blue Devils in the next game.<\/p>\n
Tough First Round Draw?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Oregon <\/strong>got a potentially tough game when they drew the Liberty Flames.<\/strong> The Ducks have weirdly had three mini-seasons: Start hot, sub-.500 third of the year, finished hot (10-1 down the stretch). The temptation could be there to overlook the Bible college. But the Flames, like many low-majors, are defensive specialists. Unlike many low-majors, however, they also just happen the be the second-best team in the country in floor shooting. A nightmare upset scenario in Eugene is to struggle offensively while a motivated, hot-shooting Liberty team keeps calling bucket. It\u2019s always trendy to pick the 12-5 upset game, but that may actually be one to put a circle around. <\/p>\n
Quietly Scary Midmajor <\/strong><\/h3>\n
VCU <\/strong>is going to be a popular choice here, provided they can escape BYU. But, for my money, the 7-seed St Mary\u2019s Gaels <\/strong>ought to give everyone pause. With their hyper-efficient offense \u2014 which is the most glacial in the country (364th out of 364th, 58 possessions a game) \u2014 their strangling defense, and the nation\u2019s second-best offensive rebounding, they are serious problems for undisciplined teams who want to press pace at the expense of ball security, are careless with their man assignments on defense, and who don\u2019t box out thus giving up too many put-backs. All of these, you will note, are issues that \u2018Bama has had this season. <\/p>\n
In a perfect world, Vanderbilt <\/strong>would do us all a solid, but after watching the Gaels drown Gonzaga in a bathtub twice, I\u2019m convinced that this contest, not a putative Sweet 16 matchup with someone like Wisconsin, will be a far more difficult opponent for the Tide. Matchups make the game, and I cannot think of anyone else in the Tide\u2019s half of the East who gives me more concern. <\/p>\n
Cannon Fodder<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Welp, at least you won your conference Mount St. Mary\u2019s, Robert Morris, <\/strong>and American<\/strong>? It\u2019s cool to be here, and you always have that ring at least. Respect your opponent, certainly. But they\u2019re going to get smushed. Besides, the next Fairleigh-Dickinson<\/strong> could be just around the corner. <\/p>\n
The Behemoth<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Duke <\/strong>is here because, well, it\u2019s Duke. Yes, they play in the AssCC, but they have the best player in the game, they have the analytics to back them up, and they even have a mostly-strong overall CV. They are one of the most efficient perimeter teams in the country, they are dominant inside, and they have three guys that will likely all be Top 15 picks, including Cooper Flagg. For all of those reasons, as well as public perception, the Blue Devils are the heavy favorites to win it all this year,<\/a> despite Auburn being the overall No. 1 seed. <\/p>\n
That said, they are also getting the benefit of the doubt based on Coach K\u2019s four decades on the sideline, not for anything Jon Scheyer has personally done. And let\u2019s not pretend the Devils are immortal; they can be beaten. They have <\/em>been beaten, and it all it took was a very familiar (and reassuring) formula for Alabama fans: light \u2018em up and make them match you score for score. Auburn nearly won in Durham with that formula. Kentucky and Kansas did <\/em>win using it, as did Clemson. And Alabama\u2019s offense is every bit as good as, and even better, than the \u2018Hawks and \u2018Cats. That\u2019s not the game Duke would want to play, assuming they make the Elite 8 \u2014 even Kentucky held their offense to the 70s. <\/p>\n
The truth is, the Devils rarely faced elite offenses stacked with elite scoring talent, but when they did, they were a .500 team against them. Duke faced the weakest offenses of anyone in the Top 10, the second-weakest defenses, and had the worst SOS vs. NET teams of the Top 10. You really do wonder how battle-tested the Devils are after taking three months off to play in the kiddie pool of the ACC \u2014 and that even assumes Cooper Flagg suddenly is at 100%. <\/p>\n
I don\u2019t think they can do it for six games. In fact, I think the Devils lose to Arizona, who has just the kind of firepower that should give Dookies nightmares.<\/p>\n
The Regional Final<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Alabama and Arizona make the Elite 8<\/strong>, and then square off for the right to go to the Final Four. That game will have an Alabama partisan crowd. And it will be a flat-out foot-on-the-gas, 40 minutes of tempo offense. In that kind of contest, Alabama can play with almost anyone in the country, so don\u2019t sell them short. Vegas is not. FanDuel<\/strong> <\/a>has pegged Alabama\u2019s odds as the highest of the 2-seeds for a reason, ahead of even Tennessee, St. John\u2019s, and others.<\/p>\n
We just need to worry about getting past St. Mary\u2019s first. <\/p>\n
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