{"id":133965,"date":"2025-03-14T23:27:21","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T23:27:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/why-i-continue-investing-in-singapore\/"},"modified":"2025-03-14T23:27:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T23:27:21","slug":"why-i-continue-investing-in-singapore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=133965","title":{"rendered":"Why I continue investing in Singapore"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I want to begin by saying that there\u2019s no \u201cright\u201d or \u201cwrong\u201d
\ninvestment strategy \u2013 we are all investing based on our convictions, our
\nbeliefs, our risk appetites, how we perceive data and much more. I am not
\nmaking a judgement of whether one investment strategy is \u201cbetter\u201d than another,
\nbecause ultimately, we are all investing for the same goal \u2013 to make money.<\/span><\/p>\n

In recent years, a popular line of thought is to simply
\ninvest in the S&P500. In this post, I share my thoughts on this concept,
\nspecifically looking at the implications for Singapore-based<\/i> investors
\nwho may choose to pursue this strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Personally, while I invest in the S&P500 (albeit not exactly, but via a Quality factor ETF), I don\u2019t believe in putting all my eggs in the
\nsame basket. Thus, the intention of this post is to share why I continue to
\ninvest in the Singapore market, and have allocated a significant portion of my
\nportfolio (~50%) to local stocks. Generally, people my age (mid-20s) tend to
\nshun the Singapore stock market altogether. The post touches on the reasons why
\nI continue doing so. <\/span><\/p>\n

Recency bias?<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

I think there\u2019s a bit of recency bias <\/i>and hindsight bias
\n<\/i>when it comes to STI vs S&P500 debate. Let\u2019s use the period from the turn
\nof the millennium (year 2000) to illustrate this. From the chart below, the
\nS&P returned 172% from 2000 (dotcom peak) till today, while the STI
\nreturned 56%. The S&P500 clearly did better. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
STI vs S&P500, 2000 to 2023. Chart from TradingView.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

But since we are looking at things from the perspective of
\nthe <\/span>Singaporean<\/i> investor, we have to consider the FX movements as well.
\nIn 2000 the USDSGD rate was around 1.70. Today, it is around 1.33. So in SGD
\nterms, the Singaporean investor who invested in the S&P would have suffered
\na -22% FX loss.<\/span><\/p>\n

And what about dividends? I am too lazy to get the data from
\n2000 till today, but generally the yield on the STI would have been 3 to 4% for
\nthe STI, compared to ~2% for the S&P. Over 23 years, this further narrows
\nthe outperformance of the S&P vs the STI.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s further analyse the reference period into two separate
\nperiods. The first being from 2000 (dotcom peak) to 2010 (a year after the GFC
\nlows), aka the \u201clost decade\u201d for the S&P500. And the second, being from
\nmid-2010 till today.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
STI vs S&P500, 2000 to 2010. Chart from TradingView.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
STI vs S&P500, 2010 to 2023. Chart from TradingView.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

What is clear from the two charts above, is that the S&P500
\nhugely outperformed STI from 2010 till today, for sure. But in the decade
\nbefore that (2000 – 2010, aka the \u201clost decade\u201d) for the S&P500, the STI outperformed
\nthe S&P500. The S&P500 returned -22% from the dotcom peak till 2010, a
\nfull 10 years, while the STI returned +35%. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The outperformance of the S&P500 vs the STI was supercharged
\nonly in the period post-GFC, when ultra-low interest rates propelled the
\nS&P500 on a 13-year long bull run, during which the S&P500 gained 249%,
\nagainst the STI\u2019s 15%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Going forward, I think it\u2019s tough to say what will happen.
\nOn one hand, many of the best and most innovative companies globally are in the
\nS&P500, which should continue to do well. But on the other hand, valuations
\nfor the S&P500 were rather stretched in late 2021 (and one may argue, that
\nfor the Nasdaq, sentiment was similar to the previous dotcom peak), and mean
\nreversion is possible. Could the tech-frenzy in late 2021 be compared to the
\nmania of 2000, and if so, what can we expect of the US market\u2019s performance in
\nthe next decade? <\/span><\/p>\n

I think ultimately one\u2019s perspective in this issue depends
\non when<\/i> they had started investing. <\/span><\/p>\n

If you speak to a relatively young person (30s and below)
\nwho only started investing post-GFC, or worse still, only recently during
\nCovid, then obviously during this timeframe the US market vastly outperformed
\nthe SG market. Hence, they will have the perspective of ignoring the SG market
\naltogether. <\/span><\/p>\n

But if you speak to the older folks, like people in their
\n50s and 60s, who have actually made good money in the SG market during heydays
\nof the 1990s and 2000s, then they would tell you the exact opposite \u2013 you can
\ndo well in the Singapore market. <\/span><\/p>\n

I think even if we look beyond the golden era for the
\nSingapore market (when the economy was transiting from an emerging market to a
\ndeveloped market), there are some SG stocks that have continued to do well \u2013
\nDBS, Sheng Siong, Raffles Medical, Parkway Life Reit\u2026 just to name a few.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maybe I\u2019m biased, because I started investing 8 years ago,
\nand took guidance mainly from my older relatives \u2013 hence the preference for
\nvalue\/dividend names. But again, it all boils down to your conviction, your
\nbeliefs and your perspective. Your money, your call. <\/span><\/p>\n

Currency Risks <\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Currency risk is a huge consideration as well. Of course,
\nthe USD being the global reserve currency provides some comfort. But if we look
\nat how some of the other major currencies have performed over the decades, it\u2019s
\nno surprise why some older Singaporeans (especially retirees) shun foreign denominated
\nstocks. <\/span><\/p>\n

You may hear older relatives mention how the GBP\/SGD went
\nfrom more than 3 in the early 2000s, to 1.6 today, or how the AUD\/SGD dropped
\nfrom 1.30 to 0.90 today. Anyone holding investments denominated in GBP or AUD
\nwould have seen 30% to 50% FX losses in SGD terms. <\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, when Warren Buffet suggested that people only need to
\nbuy the S&P500, because that represents the \u201ceconomy\u201d, I think that\u2019s more
\napplicable specifically to US citizens. For US citizens, it makes sense to have
\n100% USD exposure if one is retiring in the US and have their cash flows \/
\nexpenses entirely in USD. <\/span><\/p>\n

But as a Singaporean spending SGD in retirement, I think it
\nis more prudent to have at least a substantial part of your cash generating
\nassets in SGD. Unless you\u2019re retiring in a location where the USD is widely
\naccepted (some tourist friendly, SEA locations), then having your entire
\nretirement nest egg in USD seems risky. <\/span><\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know how the USD\/SGD will perform in the long run,
\nespecially with geopolitical issues and such. Having your entire investment
\nportfolio denominated in USD means that you\u2019re betting on the US-led, unipolar
\nworld to continue, whereas having a globally diversified investment portfolio
\nacross multiple currencies may turn out better in the event the world becomes
\nincreasingly multipolar, leading to a decline in the USD\u2019s dominance. <\/span><\/p>\n

At this point I will suggest reading some of the research
\nnotes by Zoltan Pozsar on the US Dollar; there have been many people sharing
\nthese notes on LinkedIn. He shares some interesting analysis of the
\nRussian-Ukraine war\u2019s impact on the USD\u2019s dominance. <\/span><\/p>\n

If one is really adamant on only investing in a single
\nETF<\/i> \u2013 then maybe the IWDA\/VRWA\/VT may be a more ideal from a
\ndiversification perspective. Although these are still denominated in USD,
\nholding a globally diversified portfolio means that part of your FX exposure
\nwill be based on the underlying currencies of the global stocks in the
\nportfolio.<\/span><\/p>\n

Merits of the Singapore market<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a step back and appreciate the merits of the
\nSingapore market. We don\u2019t have capital gains taxes. We don\u2019t have dividend
\nwithholding taxes. Valuations are generally less frothy (at least in recent
\nyears). These boring, mature companies usually pay a decent dividend.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, I am investing in the Singapore market exactly with
\nthese merits in mind \u2013 to generate a steady stream of dividends for my early
\nretirement. And the Singapore market has served me well for that. <\/span><\/p>\n

The STI pays a stable dividend of around 4%, and going
\nforward, even if STI has zero capital appreciation, and barring any
\ncatastrophic financial system meltdown, at least I get the 4% dividend yearly.<\/span><\/p>\n

My approach<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Having said the above, my current approach is to have around
\n10% in QUAL (SPY equivalent) and 10% in STI. As I\u2019m only targeting a rather
\nconservative 5% annualised return to hit my FIRE goals, I think I will be able
\nto reach it, regardless of whether SPY outperforms STI in the next decade or
\nnot. Broadly, I still choose to having around 50% of my portfolio in SG investments
\n(S-REITs, STI and SG dividend payers), while having exposure to the US, China
\nand Developed Markets via other stocks\/ETFs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, will the US market continue to outperform the
\nSingapore market, as it has done for the past decade?<\/span><\/p>\n

Or, will the next few years of higher interest rates benefit
\nthe more \u201cvalue\u201d oriented Singapore stocks?<\/span><\/p>\n

My answer is that I don\u2019t know. But I for sure will not put
\nall my eggs in the same basket.<\/span><\/p>\n

Remember, past performance does not guarantee future
\nreturns.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 I want to begin by saying that there\u2019s no \u201cright\u201d or \u201cwrong\u201d investment strategy \u2013 we are all investing based on our convictions, our beliefs, our risk appetites, how we perceive data and much more. I am not making a judgement of whether one investment strategy is \u201cbetter\u201d than another, because ultimately, we are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":133966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[11316,10906,10908],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-133965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-continue","tag-investing","tag-singapore"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy I continue investing in Singapore - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=133965\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why I continue investing in Singapore - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a0 I want to begin by saying that there\u2019s no \u201cright\u201d or \u201cwrong\u201d investment strategy \u2013 we are all investing based on our convictions, our beliefs, our risk appetites, how we perceive data and much more. 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