{"id":123848,"date":"2025-03-10T09:51:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T09:51:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/finance\/chaos-fear-and-uncertainty-wonderful-for-real-estate-investors\/"},"modified":"2025-03-10T09:51:18","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T09:51:18","slug":"chaos-fear-and-uncertainty-wonderful-for-real-estate-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=123848","title":{"rendered":"Chaos, Fear, And Uncertainty: Wonderful For Real Estate Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-ast-blocks-layout=\"true\" itemprop=\"text\">\n<p>As I watch my stock portfolio correct, I take solace in knowing that my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/real-estate-crowdfunding-learning-center\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">real estate portfolio<\/a> continues to chug along despite the chaos, fear, and uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>With mass government personnel cuts, new tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China, a heated Oval Office exchange between President Trump and Ukraine\u2019s President Zelensky, and sharp words from VP Vance about European leaders, economic uncertainty is surging. While the stock market despises uncertainty, real estate investors might find opportunity in the turmoil.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-277247\"\/><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-start-of-trade-wars-in-march-2025\"><strong>The Start of Trade Wars<\/strong> In March 2025<\/h2>\n<p>In 2023, Canada sent 76% of its exports to the United States, accounting for 19% of its GDP. In 2024, Mexico sent 78% of its exports to the U.S., making up 38% of its GDP. Meanwhile, U.S. exports to both Canada and Mexico combined account for only about 2.7% of U.S. GDP. Clearly, Canada and Mexico will need to make concessions\u2014otherwise, their economies will likely slip into recession.<\/p>\n<p>I expect swift negotiations among these four countries, which is <em>why I\u2019m buying the stock market dip<\/em>. In a way, I&#8217;m thrilled to be able to build greater equity positions for my children, who have small stock market portfolios. The idea of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/how-to-make-your-children-millionaires-before-they-leave-home\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">making children millionaires<\/a> before they leave home may be a growing necessity. At the same time, I see real estate as both a hedge against uncertainty and a potential outperformer this year and next.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1179\" height=\"1423\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_9790.jpg\" alt=\"Mexico, Canada, China Tariff retaliation to Trump's increased tariffs\" class=\"wp-image-277251\" style=\"width:720px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_9790.jpg?fit=1456,9999 1179w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_9790-290x350.jpg?fit=1456,9999 290w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_9790-414x500.jpg?fit=1456,9999 414w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/IMG_9790-768x927.jpg?fit=1456,9999 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1179px) 100vw, 1179px\"\/><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-political-and-economic-chaos-impacts-investments\">How Political and Economic Chaos Impacts Investments<\/h2>\n<p>When uncertainty spikes, equity markets typically sell off. Since stocks produce nothing tangible, their value relies on investor confidence and the ability to forecast their future earnings. But investors fear the unknown\u2014much like stepping into an already stinky elevator, only to have someone else walk in and assume you\u2019re the culprit.<\/p>\n<p>However, real estate thrives in times of uncertainty. Why? Because capital seeks safety and tangible assets. When stocks tumble, investors flock to Treasury bonds and hard assets like real estate and gold, which tend to hold their value better. While equities can lose 10%+ in market cap overnight, real estate remains a tangible, income-generating asset that provides utility. <\/p>\n<p>I previously wrote about how <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/trade-wars-could-be-what-the-housing-market-needs-to-heat-up\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trade wars could reignite the housing market<\/a>. That prediction appears to be playing out now. With interest rates inching lower, the demand for real estate is increasing. You could easily see an enormous shift of capital from stocks to real estate this year. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-impact-of-doge-cuts-amp-economic-uncertainty\">The Impact of DOGE Cuts &amp; Economic Uncertainty<\/h2>\n<p>To get a clearer picture of the situation in Washington, D.C., I reached out to Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of <strong><a aria-label=\"Fundrise (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/fundrise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\">Fundrise<\/a><\/strong>, who is based in Washington D.C.. His insights were eye-opening, including the discussion of taking away, \u201cstealth stimulus.\u201d You can listen to the episode by clicking the embedded player below or going to my <a aria-label=\"Apple (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/itunes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\">Apple<\/a> or <a aria-label=\"Spotify (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/spotify\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\">Spotify<\/a> channel.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Embed Player\" src=\"https:\/\/play.libsyn.com\/embed\/episode\/id\/35538165\/height\/192\/theme\/modern\/size\/large\/thumbnail\/yes\/custom-color\/84090c\/time-start\/00:00:00\/playlist-height\/200\/direction\/backward\/download\/yes\/font-color\/FFFFFF\" height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"\" webkitallowfullscreen=\"true\" mozallowfullscreen=\"true\" oallowfullscreen=\"true\" msallowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border: medium;\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The DOGE cuts are happening much faster than expected, amplifying their impact. If the cuts were gradual, their effects would be more manageable. Instead, the government is slashing jobs at an unprecedented pace, aiming to root out waste and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/government-grift\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">graft<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>While we can all agree that taxpayers deserve transparency in where our money is going and efficiency in government spending, the speed and scale of these cuts\u2014along with the lack of empathy for long-serving public employees\u2014are concerning. My college roommate worked for USAID for eight years, doing great work helping to distribute food and vaccinations in Africa\u2014now he&#8217;s shut out through no fault of his own. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-tremendous-cultural-change-in-the-public-sector\">A Tremendous Cultural Change In The Public Sector<\/h2>\n<p>Sitting here in San Francisco, the tech and startup hub of the world, I can\u2019t help but see parallels with the private sector. In tech, layoffs happen swiftly, and companies move on without hesitation. It\u2019s a brutal, competitive world. <\/p>\n<p>During my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/went-back-to-work-and-could-only-last-four-months\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">four-month consulting stint for a startup<\/a> in late 2023 to early 2024, the moment I told the CEO I didn\u2019t think it was working out, I was gone within two days. The warmth disappeared fast! But that&#8217;s private sector startup life for you, which has now bled over to the public sector. <\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re a government employee facing uncertainty, it may be wise to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/federal-government-employees-take-the-severance-package\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">consider accepting a severance package<\/a> and move on. The next four years\u2014perhaps longer\u2014will bring immense pressure on federal and local employees to perform under intense scrutiny. Public sector compensation with private sector pressure is not a great combination. <\/p>\n<p>You might even feel as much pressure as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/making-money-professional-writer\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">personal finance writer<\/a> raising two young kids and supporting a spouse in expensive San Francisco\u2014with no dual incomes! If you don&#8217;t love what you do, survival will be extremely difficult.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1785\" height=\"816\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/economic-policy.jpeg\" alt=\"Economic Policy Uncertainty Index For United States - St. Louis FRED - The higher the uncertainty index, the more investors should consider buying equities\" class=\"wp-image-277257\" style=\"width:720px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/economic-policy.jpeg 1785w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/economic-policy-350x160.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/economic-policy-728x333.jpeg 728w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/economic-policy-768x351.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/economic-policy-1536x702.jpeg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1785px) 100vw, 1785px\"\/><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-which-sectors-thrived-during-the-last-trade-war\">Which Sectors Thrived During the Last Trade War?<\/h2>\n<p>With fresh trade conflicts brewing with China, Mexico, Canada, and possibly Europe, it\u2019s worth revisiting past market behavior.<\/p>\n<p>During the 2018\u20132019 trade war, Goldman Sachs found that the top-performing sectors were:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Utilities<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Low-beta monopolies with high dividends<\/li>\n<li><strong>Real Estate<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Hard assets that offer stability and income<\/li>\n<li><strong>Telecom Services<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Defensive, cash-generating businesses<\/li>\n<li><strong>Consumer Staples<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Essential goods that remain in demand<\/li>\n<li><strong>Energy<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 A hedge against geopolitical instability<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1716\" height=\"1324\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-7.26.44\u202fPM.png\" alt=\"Equity returns and sectors during the 2018-2019 trade conflict. Utilities, Real Estate, and Telecom Services outperformed the most.  While semiconductors and China ADRs underperformed the most.  A comprehensive guide for investors during trade wars\" class=\"wp-image-277254\" style=\"width:720px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-7.26.44\u202fPM.png?fit=1456,9999 1716w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-7.26.44\u202fPM-350x270.png?fit=1456,9999 350w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-7.26.44\u202fPM-648x500.png?fit=1456,9999 648w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-7.26.44\u202fPM-768x593.png?fit=1456,9999 768w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-02-24-at-7.26.44\u202fPM-1536x1185.png?fit=1456,9999 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1716px) 100vw, 1716px\"\/><\/figure>\n<p>Real estate\u2019s outperformance during turmoil isn\u2019t surprising. When uncertainty rises, investors rush into bonds, pushing yields lower. Declining mortgage rates then make homeownership more affordable, boosting housing demand.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-real-estate-could-outperform-stocks-in-2025\">Why Real Estate Could Outperform Stocks in 2025<\/h2>\n<p>While real estate underperformed stocks in 2023 and 2024, that trend is poised to reverse in 2025. I assign a\u00a0<strong>70% probability<\/strong>\u00a0that real estate will outperform equities this year.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks are at risk of sharp corrections mainly due to expensive valuations and policy uncertainty, while real estate continues to provide stable, low-volatility returns\u2014something investors crave in turbulent times. The U.S. already faces a multi-million-unit housing shortage. With falling mortgage rates, pent-up demand, and a growing preference for stability, real estate should see strong support.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean real estate will explode higher\u2014it just means stocks likely won\u2019t deliver the same outsized gains we saw in 2023 and 2024.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ask yourself:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Would you rather invest in stocks at\u00a0all-time highs, with valuations in the top decile, amidst all this uncertainty?<\/li>\n<li>Or would you prefer\u00a0commercial real estate with 7%+ cap rates, trading at deep discounts similar to the 2008 financial crisis\u2014despite today\u2019s stronger economy and household balance sheets?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I lean toward laggard value plays over frothy stocks. At the same time, some of the best times to buy stocks were when the Economic Uncertainty Index was at similarly elevated levels\u2014like in 2009 and 2020. Hence, it may be wise to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/better-investing-figuring-out-how-much-more-to-dollar-cost-average\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dollar-cost average into both assets<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-don-t-get-complacent-with-stock-market-gains\">Don\u2019t Get Complacent With Stock Market Gains<\/h2>\n<p>The past two years have been exceptional for stocks, delivering returns that felt like winning the lottery. But long-term returns tend to normalize. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Vanguard all <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/low-stock-market-return-scenario\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">forecast\u00a0subdued\u00a010-year S&amp;P 500 returns<\/a>. If valuations mean-revert to a historical forward P\/E of 18x, upside potential is limited. In fact, there could be tremendous downside. <\/p>\n<p>Once you\u2019ve made substantial gains, capital\u00a0preservation\u00a0should be your priority. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/the-first-rule-of-financial-independence-never-lose-money\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">first rule of financial independence<\/a> is\u00a0not losing money. The second rule is not to forget the first rule\u2014but also to always try to negotiate a severance package if you plan to quit your job anyway. There is no downside.<\/p>\n<p>2023 and 2024 were gifts from the market. Let\u2019s not assume 2025 will be just as generous. Instead, it\u2019s time to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/real-estate-crowdfunding-learning-center\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">appreciate real estate<\/a>\u00a0and consider adding more if you\u2019re underweight. A\u00a04%\u20138% steady return\u00a0in real estate beats the wild swings of a stock market that could erase wealth overnight.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"728\" height=\"415\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/fgindex-728x415.jpeg\" alt=\"Fear &amp; Greed Index for investors to gauge\" class=\"wp-image-277259\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/fgindex-728x415.jpeg 728w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/fgindex-350x200.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/fgindex-768x438.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/fgindex-1536x876.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/fgindex.jpeg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 728px) 100vw, 728px\"\/><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-conclusion-hard-assets-win-during-uncertainty\">Conclusion: Hard Assets Win During Uncertainty<\/h2>\n<p>When chaos, fear, and uncertainty dominate, investors should return to the basics\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/ranking-the-best-passive-income-investments\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">income-generating assets<\/a> and tangible assets. Hard assets provide utility, stability, and in some cases, joy.<\/p>\n<p>As 2025 unfolds, don\u2019t underestimate real estate\u2019s role as a hedge against uncertainty. If the world comes crumbling down, the most precious asset you will own is your home. Don&#8217;t take it for granted.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to invest in real estate without the burden of a mortgage, tenants, or maintenance check out\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/fundrise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Fundrise<\/a><\/strong>. With about $3 billion in assets under management and 380,000+ investors, Fundrise specializes in residential and industrial real estate.<\/p>\n<p>If the 10-year bond yield drops to 3.5% or lower and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6% or below, expect real estate demand to surge. Publicly traded ETFs and REITs will react quickly, but private commercial real estate will offer a 3\u20134-month window of opportunity due to longer transaction times. To capitalize on this timing lag, check out Fundrise\u2014my favorite platform for private real estate investing.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/fundrise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1495\" height=\"1268\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fundrise-dashboard-2025.png\" alt=\"Financial Samurai Fundrise investment amount and dashboard - Chaos and uncertainty is great for real estate\" class=\"wp-image-274912\" style=\"width:720px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fundrise-dashboard-2025.png?fit=1456,9999 1495w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fundrise-dashboard-2025-350x297.png?fit=1456,9999 350w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fundrise-dashboard-2025-590x500.png?fit=1456,9999 590w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/financialsamurai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Fundrise-dashboard-2025-768x651.png?fit=1456,9999 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1495px) 100vw, 1495px\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">My Fundrise investment dashboard<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>I\u2019ve personally invested $300,000 with Fundrise to generate more passive income. The platform is also a long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai. <\/p>\n<p><em>To expedite your journey to financial freedom, join over 60,000 others and subscribe to the\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.financialsamurai.com\/news\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">free Financial Samurai newsletter<\/a><\/strong>. Financial Samurai is among the largest independently-owned personal finance websites, established in 2009. Everything is written based on firsthand experience and expertise.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As I watch my stock portfolio correct, I take solace in knowing that my real estate portfolio continues to chug along despite the chaos, fear, and uncertainty. With mass government personnel cuts, new tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China, a heated Oval Office exchange between President Trump and Ukraine\u2019s President Zelensky, and sharp words from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":123849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[21766,4856,3191,11223,482,21083,5421],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-123848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-chaos","tag-estate","tag-fear","tag-investors","tag-real","tag-uncertainty","tag-wonderful"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chaos, Fear, And Uncertainty: Wonderful For Real Estate Investors - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=123848\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chaos, Fear, And Uncertainty: Wonderful For Real Estate Investors - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As I watch my stock portfolio correct, I take solace in knowing that my real estate portfolio continues to chug along despite the chaos, fear, and uncertainty. 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