{"id":123154,"date":"2025-03-10T00:37:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T00:37:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/finance\/february-2025-review-and-outlook\/"},"modified":"2025-03-10T00:37:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T00:37:26","slug":"february-2025-review-and-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=123154","title":{"rendered":"February 2025 Review and Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

Executive summary:<\/strong><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • U.S. equity indices closed lower in February<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Growth\/stagflation worries with softer economic readings and hotter inflation indicators<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • 10 of 11 Large-cap sectors see positive earnings growth \u2013 most in 3 years<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Developments out of Washington continue to dominate headlines<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Index performance for February:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \n\"Index<\/p>\n

    <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

    All the major U.S. equity indices declined in February. The S&P 500 remained positive for the year while the equal-weighted index outperformed the official index. Underperforming sectors included Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Communications and Industrials, while Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Energy and Utilities performed well. Treasuries saw lower yields, the Dollar Index dropped slightly, gold rose modestly, and oil had its first monthly loss since November 2024.<\/p>\n

    The risk-off sentiment dominated the market due to several bearish narratives. Concerns about growth and stagflation arose from softer economic readings and hotter inflation measures. Uncertainty around Trump\u2019s trade, immigration, tax and Ukraine policies added to the market\u2019s unease. The Fed maintained a cautious stance amid a hotter CPI report and broader macro uncertainty. Trade war developments played a significant role with Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, though these were delayed pending negotiations. Analysts highlighted the slowing growth and inflationary impacts of Trump\u2019s policies, and February consumer confidence saw its biggest decline since August 2021.<\/p>\n

    Economic data for January showed mixed results, with a hotter CPI report raising fears of recession and stagflation. Softer nonfarm payrolls and retail sales reports, along with softening housing data, added to the concerns. The ISM services index missed expectations while the ISM manufacturing index was stronger. Fed Chair Powell\u2019s Congressional testimony emphasized the need for more work on inflation and stated that Trump\u2019s comments would not impact Fed policy decisions. Despite the defensive tone, there were positive developments including the House GOP passing a budget resolution, January core PCE inflation meeting expectations and Treasury support following the Fed\u2019s signaling to slow or pause QT mid-year. Early signs of a Ukraine peace deal were dashed after a tense meeting between Trump and Zelensky resulted in no agreement.<\/p>\n

    Bullet summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Risk-off sentiment<\/strong>\u00a0prevailed due to:\n
        \n
      • Growth\/stagflation worries with softer economic readings and hotter inflation indicators.<\/li>\n
      • Uncertainty around Trump\u2019s trade, immigration, tax, and Ukraine policies.<\/li>\n
      • Increased retail selling pressure and extended positioning.<\/li>\n
      • A cautious Fed amid a hotter CPI report and macro uncertainty.<\/li>\n
      • Early signs of a Ukraine peace deal, though no deal was signed after a tense meeting between Trump and Zelensky.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
      • Trade war developments<\/strong>:\n
          \n
        • Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, but they were delayed pending negotiations.<\/li>\n
        • Analysts flagged negative growth and inflationary impacts from Trump\u2019s policies.<\/li>\n
        • February consumer confidence saw its biggest decline since August 2021.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
        • Economic data<\/strong>:\n
            \n
          • Hotter January CPI report raised recession\/stagflation fears.<\/li>\n
          • Softer January non-farm payrolls and retail sales reports.<\/li>\n
          • Housing data showed softening.<\/li>\n
          • January ISM services missed expectations, while ISM manufacturing was stronger.<\/li>\n
          • Labor markets continue to cool with the February 22nd<\/sup> Initial Jobless claims coming in at the highest levels of 2025.<\/li>\n
          • January core PCE inflation was in-line with expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
          • Fed Chair Powell\u2019s Congressional testimony<\/strong>:\n
              \n
            • Emphasized more work needed on inflation.<\/li>\n
            • Comments from Trump will not impact Fed\u2019s policy decisions.<\/li>\n
            • Fed officials noted the need to remain restrictive pending better clarity on inflation and tariffs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Sector performance total return for February:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Sector<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Earnings commentary:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

              According to FactSet data, the blended earnings growth rate for Q4 S&P 500 EPS is 18.2% which is higher than the expected 11.9%. The blended revenue growth rate is 5.3%. Of the 97% of S&P 500 companies that have reported, 75% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, slightly below the one-year and five-year averages. Additionally, 63% have surpassed consensus sales expectations, just above the one-year average but below the five-year average. Overall, companies are reporting earnings 7.5% above expectations, better than the one-year average positive surprise rate but below the five-year average. Sales are 0.8% above expectations, which is below both the one-year and five-year positive surprise rates.<\/p>\n

              Sales and earnings results by S&P sector:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Sales<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Sales<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Broad-based earnings growth for Large Caps:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Broad-based<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Two-day price reaction following earnings releases:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"2-day<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 90+% chance of a hold at the March meeting<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Fed<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"10-Year<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Gold:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Gold\"<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Oil:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Oil\"<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              DXY:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"DXY\"<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

              Looking ahead:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

              Market\u2019s focus this week will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for February. Economists predict the unemployment rate to remain at 4% with 160,000 new jobs added. The reading will come as new and continued jobless claims continue to rise to start the year. There will be numerous Fed Speak headlines over the next week ahead of the March 19th FOMC meeting, most notably will be Chair Powell\u2019s keynote speech on the economic outlook at Chicago Booth’s 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum. Note that Q1\u201925 triple witch will occur on March 21st.<\/p>\n

              Economic Calendar:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
              \n
              \n\"Economic<\/p>\n

              <\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n

              The information contained herein is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. All information contained herein is obtained by Nasdaq from sources believed by Nasdaq to be accurate and reliable. However, all information is provided \u201cas is\u201d without warranty of any kind. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Executive summary: U.S. equity indices closed lower in February Growth\/stagflation worries with softer economic readings and hotter inflation indicators 10 of 11 Large-cap sectors see positive earnings growth \u2013 most in 3 years Developments out of Washington continue to dominate headlines Index performance for February: All the major U.S. equity indices declined in February. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":119812,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[3843,12752,3749],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-123154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-february","tag-outlook","tag-review"],"yoast_head":"\nFebruary 2025 Review and Outlook - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=123154\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"February 2025 Review and Outlook - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Executive summary: U.S. equity indices closed lower in February Growth\/stagflation worries with softer economic readings and hotter inflation indicators 10 of 11 Large-cap sectors see positive earnings growth \u2013 most in 3 years Developments out of Washington continue to dominate headlines Index performance for February: All the major U.S. equity indices declined in February. 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