{"id":122437,"date":"2025-03-09T16:25:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-09T16:25:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/"},"modified":"2025-03-09T16:25:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-09T16:25:26","slug":"inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=122437","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Myths, Market Realities, and the Tariff Scapegoat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/us-stock-markets-tumble.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"151441\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2025\/03\/06\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/us-stock-markets-tumble\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/us-stock-markets-tumble.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,600\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"US-Stock-Markets-Tumble\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/us-stock-markets-tumble.jpg?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/us-stock-markets-tumble.jpg?w=584\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/us-stock-markets-tumble.jpg?w=800\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-151441\" style=\"width:311px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Dear Mr. Market:<\/p>\n<p>Ah, tariffs. The misunderstood villain of the economic world, blamed for everything from rising grocery bills to why Uncle Bob\u2019s imported car parts now cost a fortune. But let\u2019s set the record straight\u2014tariffs are not always a pure cause of inflation. At least, not in the way most people think.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"wp-block-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2025\/03\/06\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/\" target=\"_self\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: Inflation Myths, Market Realities, and the Tariff\u00a0Scapegoat<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-151420\"\/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Trump Tariffs 1.0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>During President Trump\u2019s first term, multiple rounds of tariffs were introduced, including significant levies on solar panels, washing machines, steel, and aluminum in 2018. These tariffs were targeted at Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Throughout his term, the trade tension with China also escalated, culminating in what was widely dubbed the \u201ctrade war.\u201d This played out with a series of tariff increases on Chinese imports, making headlines throughout his presidency.<\/p>\n<p>So, how did the U.S. stock market respond to these tariff announcements? The reaction was, unsurprisingly, negative\u2014similar to what we\u2019re seeing today. Each new tariff announcement sparked sharp sell-offs in the stock market. Here are the annual returns for the S&amp;P 500 Index during Trump\u2019s first term:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2017<\/strong>: +21.9%<\/li>\n<li><strong>2018<\/strong>: -4.41%<\/li>\n<li><strong>2019<\/strong>: +31.74%<\/li>\n<li><strong>2020<\/strong>: +18.38%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Looking at these numbers, history shows that the first wave of tariffs introduced by Trump created notable market volatility, hurt certain U.S. industries, and led to increased prices for goods and services across the economy. Despite the widespread negative press surrounding the tariffs and trade war, the U.S. stock market posted solid gains in 3 out of the 4 years during his first term.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>Trump Tariffs 2.0 Are Larger <\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s important to recognize the key differences between the tariffs imposed during Trump\u2019s first term and the latest round of tariffs announced on February 2, 2025. The new tariffs are significantly larger than those from his previous administration, which may have a much larger impact on the U.S. economy and further drive up prices. While Trump was strategic in his tariff choices during his first term, the new round is far more sweeping\u2014introducing a 25% tariff on\u00a0<em>all<\/em> goods from Canada and Mexico (except oil) and a 10% tariff on goods from China.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>The Supply &amp; Demand Reality Check<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Before we start pointing fingers, let\u2019s remember the basics: inflation is an increase in the <em>average<\/em>\u00a0price of a basket of goods. What causes prices to rise? Simple:\u00a0<strong>supply and demand<\/strong>. If supply shrinks while demand stays constant (or rises), prices go up. If supply surges but demand drops, prices fall.<\/p>\n<p>For example, during COVID, oil prices literally went negative (<a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2020\/03\/28\/best-oil-stocks-after-the-coronavirus-stock-market-crash\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">we wrote about that here<\/a>). Why? Nobody was driving, so demand collapsed while supply remained. Meanwhile, toilet paper prices skyrocketed because demand spiked while supply chains were a mess. And fast forward to today, and we\u2019re talking about eggs. None of this had anything to do with tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>Also, for a brief snippet of history, in the 1800\u2019s about 97.5% of our entire country\u2019s revenue came from tariffs. Ironically enough, inflation was basically zero that entire time\u2026<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnefzfxcaadbj-.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"151433\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2025\/03\/06\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/glnefzfxcaadbj\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnefzfxcaadbj-.png\" data-orig-size=\"474,284\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"GlNEFzfXcAAdBj-\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnefzfxcaadbj-.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnefzfxcaadbj-.png?w=474\" width=\"474\" height=\"284\" src=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnefzfxcaadbj-.png?w=474\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-151433\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong><strong>The Real Inflation Culprit: M2 Money Supply<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If you really want to know what caused the inflationary chaos of the past few years, look no further than\u00a0<strong>M2 money supply<\/strong>\u2014essentially all the cash, checking deposits, and easily accessible savings in circulation. If you stuffed your face beyond belief (let\u2019s say like on Thanksgiving) how do you typically feel a few hours later? That lethargic and downright comatose feeling the body goes through trying to digest too much food is akin to what our economy is dealing with right now. <\/p>\n<p>From 2020 to 2022, the U.S. government printed and pumped a staggering\u00a0<strong>$7 trillion<\/strong>\u00a0into the system\u2014roughly 40% of all U.S. dollars ever created! Just digest that number for a minute. We\u2019d also make the case that most people could not write out how many actual zeros there are in a trillion dollars. Anyway, that\u2019s like dumping jet fuel onto an open flame. The result? <strong>Too much money chasing too few goods<\/strong>, sending prices soaring across the board. Tariffs didn\u2019t do that\u2014excess liquidity did.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnhd_kw0aafeid-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"151431\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2025\/03\/06\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/glnhd_kw0aafeid-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnhd_kw0aafeid-1.png\" data-orig-size=\"660,428\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"GlNHd_kW0AAFeID\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnhd_kw0aafeid-1.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnhd_kw0aafeid-1.png?w=584\" width=\"660\" height=\"428\" src=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/glnhd_kw0aafeid-1.png?w=660\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-151431\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"\/>\n<p>Without question in this political environment it is almost impossible to disconnect one\u2019s ideology from economic facts. Love him or hate him, it\u2019s essential to recognize that President Trump often employs tariffs not merely as economic measures but as strategic tools for negotiation. By imposing or threatening tariffs, the administration aims to bring trading partners to the negotiating table to address trade imbalances, intellectual property concerns, or other disputes. This tactic is less about the tariffs themselves and more about leveraging them to achieve broader economic or political objectives.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>Global Tariff Landscape<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/tariff_rate_applied_weighted_mean_all_products_-1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"151428\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2025\/03\/06\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/tariff_rate_applied_weighted_mean_all_products_-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/tariff_rate_applied_weighted_mean_all_products_-1.png\" data-orig-size=\"800,533\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Tariff_rate,_applied,_weighted_mean,_all_products_(%)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/tariff_rate_applied_weighted_mean_all_products_-1.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/tariff_rate_applied_weighted_mean_all_products_-1.png?w=584\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/tariff_rate_applied_weighted_mean_all_products_-1.png?w=800\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-151428\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>To understand the current tariff dynamics, let\u2019s look at <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_countries_by_tariff_rate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">how other countries impose tariffs on U.S. goods compared to recent U.S. proposals:<\/a><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>European Union (EU):<\/strong>\u00a0The EU imposes a 10% tariff on U.S. automobiles, while the U.S. currently has a 2.5% tariff on European cars. This disparity has been a point of contention, with discussions about aligning these rates to ensure fair trade practices.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/chart\/18771\/passenger-car-trade-between-the-eu-and-the-united-states-in-2018\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">statista.com<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>China:<\/strong>\u00a0The U.S. has recently increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, aiming to address issues like trade imbalances and the influx of illicit substances. In retaliation, China has imposed a 15% tariff on American agricultural products, highlighting the tit-for-tat nature of trade disputes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><strong>The Market\u2019s Reality Check<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Lately, Mr. Market has been throwing a bit of a tantrum. The past few weeks have seen a selloff across U.S. equities, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back after their meteoric rise the past couple years. Why? A combination of factors:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Fed\u2019s persistent \u201chigher for longer\u201d interest rate stance.<\/li>\n<li>A slowing economy, with cracks starting to show in consumer spending and corporate earnings.<\/li>\n<li>Geopolitical uncertainty.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But here\u2019s where it gets interesting:\u00a0<strong>European and Emerging Markets have been outperforming the U.S.<\/strong>\u00a0lately. Why? Valuations. The U.S. stock market, especially tech, has been priced for perfection. Meanwhile, Europe and EM equities have been trading at a relative discount, and as global investors hunt for better risk-reward scenarios, they\u2019re rotating into those markets. In some recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.myportfolioguide.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">My Portfolio Guide, LLC<\/a> newsletters we briefly discussed what we thought could be a potential \u201cvalue trap\u201d in overseas markets but here we are \u201ceating our own cooking\u201d and possibly changing our tune a bit\u2026 as to remain solvent in this game, you have to be able to adjust to what the environment is currently telling us.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>How Often Does the Market Correct?<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2013\/06\/15\/what-is-a-stock-market-correction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market corrections<\/a> are a normal and actually healthy part of investing. On average:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The market declines\u00a0<strong>5% three times per year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>A\u00a0<strong>10% correction happens about once per year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>The average\u00a0<strong>peak-to-trough drawdown per year is -14.3%<\/strong>. (below is our favorite chart depicting this for anyone who has a short memory!)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/screenshot-2025-01-20-at-1.58.28e280afpm.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"151425\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/2025\/03\/06\/inflation-myths-market-realities-and-the-tariff-scapegoat\/screenshot-2025-01-20-at-1-58-28-pm\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/screenshot-2025-01-20-at-1.58.28e280afpm.png\" data-orig-size=\"2064,1266\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Screenshot 2025-01-20 at 1.58.28\u202fPM\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/screenshot-2025-01-20-at-1.58.28e280afpm.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/screenshot-2025-01-20-at-1.58.28e280afpm.png?w=584\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"628\" src=\"https:\/\/dearmrmarket.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/screenshot-2025-01-20-at-1.58.28e280afpm.png?w=1024\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-151425\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>For context, the last time the market declined\u00a0<strong>10% or more<\/strong>\u00a0was in the second quarter of 2022. During that period, the index fell approximately -16.1%, reflecting investor concerns over rising inflation and tightening monetary policy (sound familiar?) These pullbacks may feel painful, but they are necessary for resetting valuations and providing new buying opportunities.<\/p>\n<p><strong><strong>What Happens Next?<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Historically, election years tend to see\u00a0<strong>volatility early in the year<\/strong>, followed by a rally in the back half. With a Fed that\u00a0<em>might<\/em>\u00a0cut rates later in 2025, we could see some tailwinds for equities later in the year. But for now, expect more chop before the market finds its next trend.<\/p>\n<p>So, before you blame tariffs for everything, remember: the market moves on liquidity, expectations, and capital flows. Tariffs? Sure, they will rattle nerves for the near-term but ultimately they\u2019re just a subplot in the grand drama of Mr. Market.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly, remember who our character <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Mr._Market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mr. Market<\/a> is\u2026 he is emotional, reactive, and constantly looking for a villain. But as always, the truth is usually right there in the data\u2014not just the headlines.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dear Mr. Market: Ah, tariffs. The misunderstood villain of the economic world, blamed for everything from rising grocery bills to why Uncle Bob\u2019s imported car parts now cost a fortune. But let\u2019s set the record straight\u2014tariffs are not always a pure cause of inflation. At least, not in the way most people think. Read more: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":122440,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[11406,11209,12671,7343,54002,11677],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-122437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-inflation","tag-market","tag-myths","tag-realities","tag-scapegoat","tag-tariff"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inflation Myths, Market Realities, and the Tariff Scapegoat - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=122437\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation Myths, Market Realities, and the Tariff Scapegoat - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dear Mr. Market: Ah, tariffs. The misunderstood villain of the economic world, blamed for everything from rising grocery bills to why Uncle Bob\u2019s imported car parts now cost a fortune. But let\u2019s set the record straight\u2014tariffs are not always a pure cause of inflation. At least, not in the way most people think. 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