{"id":121255,"date":"2025-03-09T02:56:52","date_gmt":"2025-03-09T02:56:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/february-trreb-stats-the-world-i-know\/"},"modified":"2025-03-09T02:56:52","modified_gmt":"2025-03-09T02:56:52","slug":"february-trreb-stats-the-world-i-know","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=121255","title":{"rendered":"February TRREB Stats: The World I Know"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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Raise your hand if you knew that\u00a0Collective Soul\u00a0<\/em>was a Christian rock band?<\/p>\n

For the record: my hand remains at my side.<\/p>\n

Do you remember when you first heard this album in 1995?<\/p>\n

Collective Soul\u2019s second album, appropriately named \u201cCollective Soul,\u201d gave us a ridiculous number of hits:<\/p>\n

\u201cGel\u201d
\u201cDecember\u201d
\u201cWhere The River Flows\u201d
\u201cThe World I Know\u201d<\/p>\n

Each of them were absolute bangers in their own right, and we all have our favourite.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Blue Album,\u201d as it\u2019s known, was a much fought-over CD in the Fleming household in 1995 and 1996, and before we knew how to \u201ccopy\u201d a CD, we were forced to share.\u00a0 Technically, my brother got the album for Christmas, so it was his, but it spent a lot of time in my SONY CD\/Cassette stereo.<\/p>\n

Many years later, my brother told us that he had a serious girlfriend in Waterloo and that he would bring her to Toronto on the weekend to meet my sister and I.<\/p>\n

She was lovely!\u00a0 And they got married, had two kids, bla bla, bla, but that\u2019s not the point of the story.<\/p>\n

The point is that while we were touring the house, she did a double-take at \u201cThe Blue Album,\u201d which was sitting on a shelf and had probably been there for a half-decade.<\/p>\n

The way she looked at it was somewhat odd.\u00a0 She furrowed her brow, and then looked up at my brother and I.<\/p>\n

She was raised in a somewhat religious community, although as most people can attest to, they were \u201cmore religious\u201d when they were children than they are now.\u00a0 But her community was\u00a0Christian<\/em>, and she knew that my brother and I were, well, this very odd combination who had a Jewish mother and a Catholic father, but who had absolutely\u00a0zero\u00a0<\/em>exposure to religion growing up and were both atheists, or \u201cheathens\u201d as our father called us.<\/p>\n

But she couldn\u2019t help herself.<\/p>\n

She picked up The Blue Album and tapped it in her hand, looking at us.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll never forget the look on her face as she slowly sort of asked us, \u201cSooo\u2026\u2026you guys are into\u00a0Christian Rock<\/em>?\u201d<\/p>\n

Huh?<\/p>\n

Come again?<\/p>\n

My brother and I looked at each other and then chuckled.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat?\u201d I asked, with a smile.<\/p>\n

She said, \u201cCollective Soul.\u00a0 They were literally the<\/em> Christian Rock band of the 90\u2019s.\u201d<\/p>\n

Our jaws dropped.\u00a0 My brother and I had absolutely no idea.<\/p>\n

She looked at us and said, \u201cWow, you guys are really clueless eh?\u00a0 Have you ever listened to the lyrics?\u201d<\/p>\n

Umm\u2026..maybe<\/em>?<\/p>\n

She told us, \u201cThis was one of the few CD\u2019s we were allowed to have in my house, growing up.\u00a0 My dad was a huge fan.\u201d<\/p>\n

I started to think about all the times I sang, \u201cHeaven let your light shine down\u201d while doing my homework in high school, and suddenly I felt quite silly.<\/p>\n

I had absolutely no idea what this band actually was<\/em> back when I was a teenager and the experience of learning the band\u2019s background, while meeting my brother\u2019s girlfriend for the very first time, is one I\u2019ll never forget.<\/p>\n

My favourite song is \u201cThe World I Know\u201d and my favourite lyrics are these:<\/p>\n

So I walk up on high
And I step to the edge
To see my world below
And I laugh at myself
While the tears roll down
\u2018Cause it\u2019s the world I have known
Oh, it\u2019s the world I have known<\/p>\n

Does anybody else feel that way\u00a0today<\/em>?<\/p>\n

Or maybe yesterday.\u00a0 Or Tuesday, specifically.<\/p>\n

The world is changing dramatically before our eyes and nobody is unaffected.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe world I have known<\/em>\u201d is no longer.\u00a0 And I\u2019m not referring to the lyric in the song by Collective Soul.<\/p>\n

Regardless of your political beliefs, who you like, who you don\u2019t, and what \u201cside\u201d you\u2019re on, we can all agree that we\u2019re entering a new frontier and one that is evolving daily.<\/p>\n

I think back to March of 2020 when \u201cthe world was changing\u201d and while it was an experience that none of us had been through before, after the initial shock, we all learned how to move forward.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t want to talk today about Trump, tariffs, Canadian politics, the geopolitical landscape, and the economy, but I\u00a0will\u00a0<\/em>say that much like with the pandemic in 2020, we\u2019ll eventually adopt this as our new normal and learn how to move forward.<\/p>\n

There are a lot of folks cheering on the sidelines of this one, especially as it pertains to the Toronto real estate market.<\/p>\n

Toronto real estate has become a\u00a0sport<\/em> over the last two decades, and just like with sports, there are winners and losers, and fans who cheer for one side or the other.<\/p>\n

There are those that\u00a0want<\/em> to see the real estate market retract and will predict the same doom and gloom that they\u2019ve been clinging to for a year, or five, or ten, or twenty, and there are those that will say, \u201cEverything is okay here, nothing to worry about,\u201d in hopes that their words will find the real estate Gods\u2019 ears.<\/p>\n

Suffice it to say, the start to 2025\u2019s real estate market has been dramatically impacted by Trump, tariffs, and everything that comes with it.<\/p>\n

February was a month of uncertainty, even more so than January, and while people still have to buy and sell real estate, the market\u2019s participants grew fewer.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a look at the February TRREB stats and as always, I will leave my punches unpulled\u2026<\/p>\n

The GTA average home price increased by\u00a04.2%<\/strong> on a month-over-month basis, now pulling closer to $1,100,000:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

On a year-over-year basis, however, this is\u00a0down<\/em> by\u00a02.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

While January\u2019s year-over-year was\u00a0higher<\/em>, we\u2019ve now reversed that trend.<\/p>\n

We would need to see an increase of 3.4% into\u00a0March to have a 2025 home price that\u2019s higher than 2024, and I would give this less than average chance of happening.<\/p>\n

In a traditional, er,\u00a0non-Trump<\/em>, market cycle, we would expect to see a higher increase from January to February.<\/p>\n

In fact, the average January-to-February increase from 2002 through 2024 is 6.1%.\u00a0 So this past month certainly wasn\u2019t the end of the world, but it was somewhat lacking, especially compared to 2024\u2019s January-to-February increase of 8.0%:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

If you\u00a0really\u00a0<\/em>wanted to claim that the sky was falling, we\u2019d have to see a RED figure in that right-hand column, but that ain\u2019t happening.<\/p>\n

2023 and 2024 were both years of very low\u00a0sales<\/em> volume, as noted throughout both years here on TRB, and as we discussed early into 2025.\u00a0 We saw a\u00a0slight<\/em> uptick in sales last year, but one of the big questions coming into 2025 would be about how many people transact this year.<\/p>\n

We saw a 4.9% increase in sales from January to February:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

But as you can see from the above chart, this figure looks like an\u00a0outlier<\/em>!<\/p>\n

No, it\u2019s not a\u00a0red<\/em> figure, but it\u2019s a single-digit increase whereas every other increase is double-digit and then some!<\/p>\n

In fact, the average increase in sales from January-to-February, from 2002 through 2024, is a whopping 44.3%.<\/p>\n

This 4.9% increase pales in comparison.<\/p>\n

Looking back at January, we saw a year-over-year decline of 7.9%.<\/p>\n

In February, we saw a year-over-year decline of 27.4%<\/p>\n

Any guesses as to where this places February of 2025, historically?<\/p>\n

Well, it looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

While January\u2019s sales data placed the month\u00a0third-lowest\u00a0<\/em>in any January post-2000, February\u2019s sales data dropped it to\u00a0last-place<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Interestingly enough, it wasn\u2019t only<\/em> buyers who tightly hugged the sidelines last month.\u00a0 It was sellers too.<\/p>\n

When was the last time we saw a\u00a0decline<\/em> in new listings from January to February?<\/p>\n

2009.<\/p>\n

In fact, we saw this happen in 2007, 2008,\u00a0and<\/em> 2009, but not since.<\/p>\n

That changed last month:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

If I could be\u00a0optimistic<\/em>\u00a0for only just a moment, let me say this:<\/p>\n

\n

If we were truly in a bear market, we would be flooded<\/em> with new listings.\u00a0 But last month, we saw\u00a0fewer<\/em> new listings than in January.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

New listings were down by 2.6% month-over-month and only up by 5.4% year-over-year:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That brings us to the absorption rate which\u00a0did<\/em> increase from January, where it hit a paltry 31.%.<\/p>\n

Last month\u2019s absorption rate was 33.5%; not significantly improved, but let\u2019s not forget that we saw a rock-bottom absorption rate of 27.6% in September before \u201call this stuff\u201d started.<\/p>\n

Graphically, there is good news!<\/p>\n

Yes, we finally get to use the colour\u00a0purple<\/em>\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I mean, yes, it\u2019s more of a\u00a0shade<\/em> of purple, but I digress\u2026<\/p>\n

We\u2019re a far cry from the 72.5% absorption rate that we saw in a maddening February of 2021!<\/p>\n

If we want to break this down further and see what the absorption rate is by\u00a0TRREB District<\/em>, it would look like this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is sorted by SNLR, but I\u2019ve included the month-over-month change as well.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll monitor this going forward and see if we find any trends or if the data is simply varied every month.<\/p>\n

But I also want to look at the market by property\u00a0type<\/em>, once again, to see what\u2019s selling and what isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

As you can all probably predict, the freehold market is outpacing the condo market.<\/p>\n

But by how much?<\/p>\n

This is surprising:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To see a spread of\u00a0only<\/em> 3.7% between detached and condominium is shocking, although I\u2019m not surprised to see semi-detached leading the way.<\/p>\n

Keep in mind, \u201ctownhouse\u201d combines both freehold\u00a0and<\/em> condominium townhouses, including \u201cparcel of tied land\u201d or POTL<\/em> as we know them.<\/p>\n

All told, it was a fascinating month in the Toronto real estate market.<\/p>\n

We had multiple offers on four listings, all freehold, and transacted at a low sale price of $499,900 and a high sale price of $5,500,000.\u00a0 How\u2019s\u00a0that<\/em> for keeping you on your toes?<\/p>\n

What do we expect in March?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking of a song lyric\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2026I\u2019m thinking of\u00a0December<\/em> by Collective Soul.<\/p>\n

\u201cYour cup runneth over again.\u201d<\/p>\n

Collective Soul.\u00a0 They said it first, right?<\/p>\n