{"id":118956,"date":"2025-03-08T01:15:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-08T01:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-march-02-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-03-08T01:15:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-08T01:15:27","slug":"stock-market-outlook-march-02-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=118956","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 March 02 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 2nd =\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600\">Mixed<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook changed to a downtrend last week after encountering heavy selling pressure, though Friday\u2019s strong move could signal the start of a new rally.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 ( <em>$SPX<\/em> )<\/a> fell 1.0% last week.\u00a0 The index is ~1% below the 50-day moving average and ~4% above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8724\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8724\" data-attachment-id=\"8724\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/02\/stock-market-outlook-march-02-2025\/2025-03-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"1329,990\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-02-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Mar 02 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8724\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"477\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8724\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Mar 02 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The ADX remained bearish last week.\u00a0 Institutional activity moved to a downtrend, slipping below the 50-day moving average with a high level of institutional selling, since the index retreated to the 50-day.\u00a0 Friday\u2019s intra-day rally off the low was impressive, marking the start of the next rally attempt.\u00a0 Starting Wednesday, look for a follow-through day to provide confirmation.\u00a0 On-balance volume also reflected the increase in selling during the week and shifted to mixed as it tests a long term average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8726\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8726\" data-attachment-id=\"8726\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/02\/stock-market-outlook-march-02-2025\/2025-03-02-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,949\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-02-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 09 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8726\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"458\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8726\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 09 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Financials <em>( $XLE )<\/em> were the best sector last week, and Technology <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlk\">$XLK<\/a> ) <\/em> led to the downside.\u00a0 Bias also shifted around, with Industrials reversing to neutral after 1 week, and Materials ( <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlb\">$XLB<\/a><\/em> ) moving to bullish.\u00a0 Technology <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlk\">$XLK<\/a> )<\/em> and index itself moved to bearish.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8727\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8727\" data-attachment-id=\"8727\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/02\/stock-market-outlook-march-02-2025\/2025-03-02-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1321,956\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-02-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 09 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8727\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"463\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8727\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 09 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Given the volatility last week, perhaps it\u2019s no surprise that Low Beta <em>( $SPLV )<\/em> led to the upside and High Beta <em>( $SPHB ) <\/em>to the downside. Mega-cap growth ( $OEF ) moved down to neutral bias, reflecting the weakness shown within large tech stocks, while Defensive\u2019s <em>( $POWA ) <\/em>moved up to neutral.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8728\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8728\" data-attachment-id=\"8728\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/03\/02\/stock-market-outlook-march-02-2025\/2025-03-02-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-asset_class_performance.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,704\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-03-02-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for various asset classes&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 09 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-asset_class_performance.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8728\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/2025-03-02-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8728\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 09 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>U.S. Bonds outperformed again last week as rates declined.\u00a0 Bitcoin <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/products\/333011\/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf\">$IBIT<\/a> )<\/em> led to the downside.\u00a0\u00a0U.S. equities and oil continued weakening, shifting from neutral bias to bearish bias.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>A choppy week for some equity sectors and risk assets.\u00a0 Volatility, as measured by the volatility index <em>( $VIX ),<\/em> broke into the 20s, after spending most of the month near 15.\u00a0 As a general rule of thumb, 30 = crash (h\/t Hedgeye).<\/p>\n<p>Heading into Friday\u2019s session, most short-term technical indicators showed oversold conditions, so the strong rally into the close wasn\u2019t TOO unexpected.\u00a0 Look to see if we get follow through buying pressure later this week.<\/p>\n<p>Of particular interest will be areas that held up well during recent market weakness (i.e. Consumer Staples, Financials, Healthcare, and Real Estate); do they continue to see inflows, or are they sold off for higher-beta names (i.e. Mag 7).<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia <em>( $NVDA )<\/em> reported higher than expected sales and earnings for Q4. While that was higher than expectations, it was also the smallest beat in the past 2 years and reflects slowing growth, which is one reason the stock sold off.<\/p>\n<p>January Durable Goods orders rose 3.1% month-over-month and 6.9% y\/y, well above expectations and the highest level in 6 months. The second estimate of 4th quarter U.S. GDP remained steady at 2.3%.\u00a0 On the inflation front, January headline PCE inflation data fell slightly, while core improved 30 basis points from upwardly revised December data:<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>PCE (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.9%*<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>We\u2019ll get revised ISM PMI data this week, along with February non-farm payrolls.<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 2nd =\u00a0Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Mixed ANALYSISThe stock market outlook changed to a downtrend last week after encountering heavy selling pressure, though Friday\u2019s strong move could signal the start of a new rally. The S&amp;P500 ( $SPX [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":118957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[7095,11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-118956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-march","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 March 02 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=118956\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 March 02 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 2nd =\u00a0Downtrend ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume):\u00a0Downtrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Mixed ANALYSISThe stock market outlook changed to a downtrend last week after encountering heavy selling pressure, though Friday\u2019s strong move could signal the start of a new rally. 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