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I know I haven\u2019t been blogging for a while. I also haven\u2019t been tweeting. I am shut out of X-Twitter because of two factor authentication issues. As such, I am doing a post today that is Twitter-like, giving my thoughts on a variety of news articles. Here we go:<\/p>\n
President Xi\u2019s hero, Chairman Mao said \u201cWomen hold up half of the sky.\u201d\u00a0 And, that randy guy Mao certainly \u201cheld up half the sky\u201d with many of them.\u00a0 But women in China will not \u201chold up half the sky\u201d for President Xi.\u00a0 Women in China increasingly do not want to marry and have children<\/a>.\u00a0 If present trends continue for 75 years (dubious to go out that far), India will be four times larger than China.\u00a0 Even the US will be bigger than China.<\/p>\n Inside a Flaming Jet, 367 Passengers Had Minutes to Flee. Here\u2019s How They Did It.<\/a> This is very impressive, and shows how a highly conformist society like Japan has its advantages.<\/p>\n \u2018\u201cEveryone was screaming from the initial impact and then everything got eerily quiet because everyone was confused,\u201d Hayashi said. The passenger next to him appeared to know about emergency procedures. \u201cShe started yelling, \u2018Put your head down, keep your seat belts on, stay in your seat,\u2019 \u201d he said.\u2019<\/p>\n From Bloomberg\u2019s evening summary (1\/2\/24)<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cThe most common concern or belief we have heard from investors is that overbought conditions and euphoric sentiment will set up for a reversal to start 2024 in both bond yields\u201d and stocks, said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. \u201cThe overbought conditions and sentiment readings are tough to argue with.\u201d<\/p>\n Nobel Prize Winner Cautions on Rush Into STEM After Rise of AI<\/a><\/p>\n No, keep your eyes on the prize. STEM majors can do creative work. Humanities majors can\u2019t do STEM.\u00a0 Don\u2019t go to college for a major that doesn\u2019t pay you back.<\/p>\n LPs Doubt Venture Funds\u2019 Startup Valuations<\/a><\/p>\n The incentives are perverse in setting marks for private equity.\u00a0 There is a tendency to overstate values, and face the problem later when the fund winds up and has to admit losses versus the overestimated marks.<\/p>\n Xi\u2019s Solution for China\u2019s Economy Risks Triggering New Trade War<\/a><\/p>\n China\u2019s investment-driven economy is much less productive than most think.\u00a0 It overinvests in industries where the world already has too much capacity (think of what they did with steel), and creates product prices where their investments are practically wasted.\u00a0 This leads to overstated GDP statistics, and greater inequality in China.\u00a0 The Chinese Communist Party has a materialism fetish that makes them think only industry matters.\u00a0 And so they impoverish most of their citizens.<\/p>\n China Leaders Sought Quick Zhongzhi Resolution to Shield Markets<\/a><\/p>\n Note that the CCP takes no blame for this.\u00a0 While housing was a tailwind for their economy, they let the bubbles grow in multifamily housing, financial companies, and local government financing vehicles.\u00a0 They only cared that headline GDP statistics kept growing, not the net economic welfare of their citizens.<\/p>\n 2023 saw record killings by US police. Who is most affected?<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cFrom 2013 to 2022, 98% of police killings have not resulted in officers facing charges, Mapping Police Violence reported.\u201d<\/p>\n Unless you can get rid of police unions, this is not likely to change.\u00a0 The unions take lower pay raises in exchange for making it difficult to fire officers.<\/p>\n Buying Home and Auto Insurance Is Becoming Impossible<\/a><\/p>\n Not so much impossible, but expensive. When the P&C insurance has back-to-back losses from underwriting, surplus is not adequate to write as much business at the same price.\u00a0 Premiums rise for almost everyone, but more so in recent disaster-prone areas\u2026 and that goes extra for states that over-regulate insurance.<\/p>\n BuzzFeed\u2019s \u2018Dire\u2019 Debt Problem<\/a><\/p>\n I know this is kind of \u201cold school,\u201d but don\u2019t buy stocks that don\u2019t earn profits.\u00a0 I know this means I will miss rare unicorns.\u00a0 But most people don\u2019t buy them near the beginning, anyway.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also wise to avoid highly indebted small-cap stocks, whether owning the stock or the debt.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t take much to capsize a small company like $BZFD.<\/p>\n The Bond Market Rally Is Overlooking a Soaring $2 Trillion Debt Problem<\/a><\/p>\n I think deflation is more likely than inflation.\u00a0 The US and other nations are likely to use financial repression (again) to deal with their debt issues.\u00a0 Eventually that will fail in a messy way.<\/p>\n Trumponomics 2.0: What to Expect If Trump Wins the 2024 Election<\/a><\/p>\n More of the same, only louder and meaner.<\/p>\n Xi\u2019s Chief of Staff Is Quietly Amassing Even More Power in China<\/a><\/p>\n Cai Qi \u2013 a man to watch. President Xi is losing touch with reality as almost no one dares to give him honest feedback.<\/p>\n Is private credit a systemic risk?<\/a><\/p>\n Probably not, unless investors as a whole underestimate their need for liquidity.\u00a0 Still, remember that new fast-growing asset classes have to go through a failure cycle in order to mature into an asset class where risks are priced mostly right.<\/p>\n Google Lays Off Hundreds in Hardware, Assistant, Engineering<\/a><\/p>\n I worked a firm that did annual layoffs.\u00a0 It really ruined employee morale.<\/p>\n There\u2019s Finally Hope for the Office Real Estate Market<\/a><\/p>\n This might be a good opportunity. Things aren\u2019t getting worse.<\/p>\n Iran Captures Oil Tanker Off Oman as Mideast Turmoil Deepens<\/a><\/p>\n Things are getting messy enough globally, and with US weapons stockpiles depleted, we could be on the edge of something that will prove hard to deal with.<\/p>\n Credit Card Delinquency Rates Climb to Decade High in Fed Study<\/a><\/p>\n Credit weakness on mostly the low end of the consumers.\u00a0 There has also been an increase in buy now pay later activity mostly in this same demographic area.\u00a0 It will be a mess, but not big enough to have material second order effects.<\/p>\n Larry Hogan Steps Down From Advocacy Group, Fueling Talk of 2024 Bid<\/a><\/p>\n He would be a good president \u2013 he\u2019s the best governor the State of Maryland has had in my lifetime.<\/p>\n Fed Posts Largest-Ever Annual Operating Loss<\/a><\/p>\n If we are going to have fiat currency, let the Fed\u2019s assets be only T-bills and gold. Don\u2019t take on duration risk, including RMBS.<\/p>\n Taiwan Election Piles Pressure on Delicate U.S.-China Ties<\/a><\/p>\n Taiwan\u2019s Raucous Democracy Is Another Challenge to Xi\u2019s Ambition<\/a><\/p>\n Dolt that he is, Xi does not get that his recent actions have turned marginal Taiwanese away from reunification. Taiwan is very happy that it is a capitalist democracy. They don\u2019t want to be ruled by authoritarians.\u00a0 Taiwan will not join Communist China without a fight that will destroy most of the value of Taiwan.<\/p>\n Fed Tiptoes Toward Dialing Back Key Channel of Monetary Tightening<\/a><\/p>\n The Fed should stop playing around with the size of its balance sheet, and shift its assets to what it was pre-GFC.\u00a0 Simplify. The Fed is doing too much, and as always, they don\u2019t know what they are doing.<\/p>\n Reinsurers launching provisions amid continuing Middle East conflict<\/a><\/p>\n Insurers Seek to Exclude US, UK Ships From Red Sea Coverage<\/a><\/p>\n War is an undiversifiable risk.\u00a0 Pseudo-wars are similar, so reinsurers are quickly updating new contracts to reflect that<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Humiliation of Davos Man<\/a><\/p>\n Humanity does not want to be one big happy family on the terms of the developed countries.<\/p>\n Inside a Plan to Save Homeowners Hundreds of Dollars Closing Their Mortgages<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe alternative, called an attorney-opinion letter, allows a real-estate attorney to essentially attest that there are no problems with a property\u2019s title. The average borrower relying on such a letter has saved more than $1,000 compared with more traditional title insurance, Fannie said<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Probably would work, though title insurance is almost bulletproof.<\/p>\n The M.B.A.s Who Can\u2019t Find Jobs<\/a><\/p>\n This happens from time to time.\u00a0 When I was an undergrad (1982), out of curiosity I went to a presentation on whether you should get an MBA or not.\u00a0 The advice then was don\u2019t get it, many employers don\u2019t want to pay up for an MBA, so get your BA and apply for work.<\/p>\n Large Backers of Private Equity Are Asking For Their Money Back<\/a><\/p>\n Many large LPs are telling GPs they won\u2019t invest in their new PE funds unless they pay them off for old funds that are past the ending date.\u00a0 PE is kind of like a life insurer that mis-reserved a block of their policies, allowing too much income to flow early, and then figures out too late that the block now has an embedded loss.<\/p>\n