{"id":116595,"date":"2025-03-07T00:38:06","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T00:38:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/another-one-bites-the-dust-capitalist-exploits\/"},"modified":"2025-03-07T00:38:06","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T00:38:06","slug":"another-one-bites-the-dust-capitalist-exploits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=116595","title":{"rendered":"Another one bites the dust \u2013 Capitalist Exploits"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

\ud83d\udca1\u00a0CONVERSATION WITH PAUL SINGER<\/strong><\/h2>\n

This conversation<\/a>\u00a0with activist legend Paul Singer is full of nuggets \u2014 from losing his mother\u2019s savings in the 1974 bear market and buying distressed Argentinian debt to his current view of the markets and crypto.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Given the sharp down moves we saw in many assets in recent days, the following bit about the 2008 crash (more on that in a second) and the resulting emotional rollercoaster is as appropriate as ever:<\/p>\n

\n

Along the way, what I observed was that when people have losses, meaningful losses, they tend to lose their minds. They tend to lose their judgments. Their sloppiness in accepting the state of play of the world when the skies are blue turns into a clutching darkness when the headlines and the stories and their friends are in trouble and suffering terrible losses.<\/em><\/p>\n

So I knew that judgment is impaired. I also knew that if you could keep, not only your head and your judgment intact, but your capital intact, these rare periods of time when there are special opportunities. Those last few weeks in \u201908\u2026 unbelievable. Everything got cheap, and then they collapsed. If you had the constitution, as well as the ability by permission, as well as the excess capital to take advantage of those opportunities \u2014 that\u2019s a pretty cool thing to do.<\/em><\/p>\n

So if you don\u2019t lose large amounts of money, the capital is like a ratchet effect. You make a buck, you keep it, you try to make another one.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\ud83d\udcfa\u00a0WHAT A DIFFERENCE 15 YEARS MAKE<\/strong><\/h2>\n

While on the topic of media appearances\u2026<\/p>\n

Insider<\/a><\/em>\u00a0member Javi dug up an old clip of our very own\u00a0Brad on Australia\u2019s Sky News<\/a>\u00a0from back in 2011.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

What\u2019s perhaps most fascinating about the whole exchange (other than the fact that Brad hasn\u2019t aged one bit in nearly 15 years) is how radically different investor sentiment was back then. With wounds from the 2008 crisis still fresh, the average investor wouldn\u2019t touch US stocks with a barge pole \u2014 even though they were dirt cheap by any conventional metric, as Brad argued.<\/p>\n

But the host suggests that in the post-GFC world, the traditional way of looking at stocks (things like P\/E rations, etc.) might no longer be relevant. In other words, this time is different.<\/p>\n

Was it really different, though? Well, you probably know the answer to that\u2026<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

US stocks more than quadrupled since that interview, and most people forgot just how hated they were not that long ago. In fact, it\u2019s somewhat ironic how market sentiment today is a complete 180 from the systemic skepticism in the early days of the bull run.<\/p>\n

The average investor can\u2019t get enough of US stocks, especially the Mag 7 (while completely ignoring the opportunities elsewhere), and the Sir John Templeton quote that Brad referenced in that clip is just as true as it was back then\u2026<\/p>\n

\n

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The only difference is that today we\u2019re in the much later stage of the market cycle \u2014 somewhere between optimism and a full-blown euphoria.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd2d\u00a0WATCH OUT FOR CONTRARIAN INDICATORS<\/strong><\/h2>\n

We covered a variety of contrarian indicators in these missives before. Magazine covers, new sector\/asset class ETF being launched (or ETFs shutting down), out-of-favor stocks getting booted out of indices (or investor darlings added), etc.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s one that we haven\u2019t discussed yet here (though we did in the\u00a0Insider Newsletter<\/em><\/a>\u00a0on a number of occasions): spin offs. More specifically, we\u2019re referring to companies spinning off out-of-favor segments of the business into a new publicly traded entity.<\/p>\n

Frequently, these spinoffs happen at the worst possible time, at the bottom of a cycle (conversely, big mergers or takeovers tend to happen at the top of a cycle). That\u2019s why it\u2019s not uncommon to see those unwanted spinoffs then outperform their \u201cparents\u201d (or former parents, rather).<\/p>\n

One of such \u201cunbundlings\u201d we\u2019ve been keeping our beady eyes on is an oil and gas company called TechnipFMC. To get you up to speed with the story, here\u2019s what we wrote in an\u00a0Insider Newsletter<\/em>\u00a0issue back in 2022:<\/p>\n

\n

Some 18 months ago TechnipFTI decided to spin-off its out of favour oil and gas subsea engineering business (FTI:NYSE) from its in vogue LNG refinery construction and engineering as well as bio-conversion, carbon capture, and hydrogen business (TE:Paris).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Industry publications called it a \u201cbold move,\u201d which \u2014 considering how universally hated offshore oil and gas was at the time \u2014 shouldn\u2019t come as a surprise.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

But four years down the track now, and look at who has performed better\u2026<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

It played out just like how we said it would \u2014 with the unloved business handily outperforming the former parent. It pays to watch out for these kinds of spin offs as they are a great contrary sign (and often a great buying opportunity).<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc80\u00a0ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Not a week goes by without another poster child of the zero-rate era going\u00a0tits<\/s>\u00a0belly up. The most recent casualty is EV maker Nikola.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Whowudathunkit?! In a world littered with green energy hogwash, Nikola might just be the most egregious example. It was a giant fraud with a side of tomfoolery and extra deception. Chris singled it out as such many moons ago (back in June 2020) in the\u00a0Insider Newsletter<\/em><\/a>:<\/p>\n

\n

And don\u2019t look now, but Nikola has a market cap comparable to Ford and not far off Daimler!<\/em><\/p>\n

Nikola, I will remind you, has no trucks or no anything in production yet. Never has. Which means there are not only no profits but no revenues. Cool huh.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In hindsight, he couldn\u2019t have timed it better. It was only downhill for Nikola (more on that in a second) and their shareholders from there on.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

At the peak, Nikola\u2019s market value was more than $28 billion, even more than Ford. Except that Ford actually sold 2 million cars that year.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Nikola literally sent a prototype truck down a hill (and filmed it)\u2026 you know, to make it seem like they actually have a functioning product.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Here\u2019s from the subsequent SEC complaining against Nikola\u2019s founder, Trevor Milton,<\/p>\n

\n

For the commercial shoot, the non-functioning Nikola One prototype truck was hauled to the shooting location by a lowboy semi-truck trailer. At this time, and more than a year after the unveiling event, the Nikola One still could not run under its own power. It was towed to the top of an inclined stretch of road and then filmed rolling down the incline. This towing-and-rolling process was repeated three times to have sufficient footage for Company 1\u2019s commercial.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

You really can\u2019t make this isht up! And yet, despite all this, they were able to raise billions of dollars from VCs and blue chips like General Motors. Time and again, we are amazed at how (supposedly) sophisticated investors get so readily swept up in hype.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udca9\u00a0BECAUSE SOMETIMES YOU JUST GOTTA CALL IT\u2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

You can check out all our merch\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Have a great weekend!<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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