{"id":106418,"date":"2025-02-24T04:30:03","date_gmt":"2025-02-24T04:30:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/finance\/economy-may-give-consumers-markets-some-decent-news\/"},"modified":"2025-02-24T04:30:03","modified_gmt":"2025-02-24T04:30:03","slug":"economy-may-give-consumers-markets-some-decent-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=106418","title":{"rendered":"Economy may give consumers, markets some decent news"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>When 2025 began, many investors were optimistic that the domestic economy would deliver results that would continue to push markets higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It hasn&#8217;t happened yet. There&#8217;s been a lot of political turmoil with the arrival of the new Trump administration.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, there&#8217;s a chance the news will be better this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udcb0 <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/newsletters?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium_top&amp;utm_campaign=amazing_race\"><strong>Stay ahead of the markets: Subscribe to TheStreet&#8217;s free daily newsletter<\/strong><\/a><strong>\ud83d\udcb8<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Maybe not because growth is exploding. Rather, the news will be more that things will start to improve.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/investing\/stocks\/investors-hope-nvidia-will-give-markets-much-needed-cheer\">Related: Nvidia&#8217;s looming update is huge for the S&amp;P 500<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The domestic economy has started 2025 with challenges, including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Higher than expected interest rates.<\/li>\n<li>Stubborn inflation rates.<\/li>\n<li>Uncertainty about how tariffs might affect consumer prices.<\/li>\n<li>Uncertainty about the impact of federal job cuts on the overall economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The biggest challenge has been those interest rates.\u00a0In fact, when the Federal Reserve cut its key federal funds rate on Sept. 18, the 10-year Treasury yield had already started rising from a low of 3.61% on Sept. 11. The yield wouldn&#8217;t peak until it reached 4.793% on Jan. 14, within a week of President Trump&#8217;s inauguration.<\/p>\n<p>The 10-year yield counts because of its enormous influence on mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac&#8217;s weekly rate survey, the rate on a 30-mortgaged bottomed at 6.09% in the period ending Sept. 19 and didn&#8217;t top out until Jan. 16 at 7.04%.\u00a0 The rate has drifted since and is now at about 6.9%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The correlation is clear. And this was the practical effect. <\/p>\n<p>If you were buying a house for $300,000 with 20% down, your mortgage would be $240,000. At 6.09%, the monthly principal and interest payment would be $1,452.84. At 7.04%, the payment would be $1,603, a monthly increase of $150 or 10.3%.<\/p>\n<p> (Taxes and insurance premiums add another 10% to 15% to the monthly payment.)\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Freddie Mac\u00a0<span> (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/quote\/FMCC\">FMCC<\/a><\/strong>) <\/span>\u00a0is a government controlled company that buys mortgages from lenders and bundles them into securities for investors. The idea is to replenish the lenders&#8217; cash so they can make more loans.<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation pressures may ease this week\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>Not a lot, perhaps, but easing would be welcome.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If the easing appears, it will be most visible Friday in the January report of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index\">Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This is the Fed&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge because it mostly measures how consumers are spending and how they may react to price changes. It&#8217;s derived from the Commerce Department&#8217;s monthly report on consumer spending.<\/p>\n<p>The overall index was up 2.6% year over year in the December report. Economists believe the year-over-year change in January will be 2.5%. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, will be up 2.6%, lower than the December level of 2.8%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Markets may react two ways. If stocks are rising all week expecting these numbers, they may not rise much more. A big jump in the PCE may prompt more selling.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The report is that big a deal.<\/p>\n<figure>\n<p>                        <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/.image\/c_fit%2Ch_800%2Cw_1200\/MjEzMDQ5MTc1ODc5NzIyNTA1\/us-economy-food-retail-eggs.jpg\" height=\"800\" width=\"1200\"><figcaption>A customer inspects eggs near egg shortage signage at a Sprouts Farmer&#8217;s Market grocery store in Lawndale, Calif. in January.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/2191628340\">PATRICK T&amp;period; FALLON&amp;sol;Getty Images<\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Housing numbers will matter<\/h2>\n<p>The week includes three widely watched housing numbers:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, due Tuesday. This measures home-price changes in 20 markets and is more specific than national reports.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>New-home sales. Due Wednesday from the U.S. Census Bureau. The consensus is for an annualized rate of 678,000 homes, down 20,000 from December.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Pending home sales for January. Due Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. This offers a snapshot of what&#8217;s happening in the total U.S. market.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<p>Slipping mortgage rates may boost the sales numbers which have been softer than expected in this the early part of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks of home improvement retailers Home Depot\u00a0<span> (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/quote\/HD\">HD<\/a><\/strong>) <\/span>\u00a0and Lowe&#8217;s Companies\u00a0<span> (<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/quote\/LOW\">LOW<\/a><\/strong>) <\/span>\u00a0are down 10.7% and nearly 13%, respectively, since their peaks after the Nov. 5 election.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More Economic Analysis:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/investing\/retail-sales-tumble-in-january-testing-fed-rate-cut-forecast\"><strong>Retail sales tumble in January, testing Fed rate cut forecast<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/economy\/cpi-jumps-in-january-stocks-move-sharply-lower\"><strong>CPI inflation shock hammers Fed rate cut bets for 2025<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/fed\/rate-cuts-and-tariffs-will-weigh-on-economic-reports\"><strong>Rate cuts and tariffs will weigh on economic reports<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Another look at consumer confidence<\/h2>\n<p>Friday&#8217;s big selloff was prompted in large part by a dismal report from the University of Michigan&#8217;s widely watched Consumer Sentiment Index.\u00a0 What Michigan researchers were hearing was unhappiness about inflation, tariffs and government job cuts.<\/p>\n<p>The Conference Board weighs in on the question on Tuesday.\u00a0 The organizations have lately been at odds with each other&#8217;s conclusions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Markets showing rebound signs<\/h2>\n<p>Futures trading Sunday evening eastern tome afternoon suggests that some investors are buying into the &#8220;Maybe the Data will be better&#8221; scenario.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Trading in futures tied to the S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq-100 Index were all moving smartly higher.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/investing\/stocks\/veteran-fund-manager-unveils-eye-popping-s-p-500-forecast\">Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&amp;P 500 forecast<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When 2025 began, many investors were optimistic that the domestic economy would deliver results that would continue to push markets higher.\u00a0 It hasn&#8217;t happened yet. There&#8217;s been a lot of political turmoil with the arrival of the new Trump administration.\u00a0 However, there&#8217;s a chance the news will be better this week.\u00a0 \ud83d\udcb0 Stay ahead of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":106421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[23472,46486,10916,10971,11715,1820],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-106418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-consumers","tag-decent","tag-economy","tag-give","tag-markets","tag-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Economy may give consumers, markets some decent news - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=106418\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economy may give consumers, markets some decent news - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When 2025 began, many investors were optimistic that the domestic economy would deliver results that would continue to push markets higher.\u00a0 It hasn&#8217;t happened yet. 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