Trump’s Gaza ‘deal’ will be as successful as his Iran one

President Donald Trump triumphantly announced Thursday night that Hamas has agreed to a “complete disarmament” in Gaza, with security being handed over to an international stabilization force.

In a sane world with competent leadership, that would be cause for cautious optimism. But with this administration? It’s more likely to suffer the same fate as Trump’s broken Iran deal.

The Iran debacle is instructive. Trump’s team celebrated a diplomatic breakthrough, only for the agreement to collapse because its own negotiators apparently didn’t understand what they had signed. Iran insisted that the deal allowed it to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, but the White House insisted that wasn’t true.

The ceasefire collapsed, and Trump’s war—which he repeatedly promised would never happen—resumed.

And that’s exactly what this Gaza deal already looks like.

The agreement reportedly calls for Hamas to disarm, Israeli forces to withdraw from Gaza, a technocratic government to administer the territory, and Trump’s Board of Peace to oversee reconstruction.

But the agreement is nothing but red flags. 

The biggest is that Israel isn’t actually a party to the agreement.

That’s kind of important, considering that Israel is the country occupying Gaza. So how exactly is Israel supposed to be bound by its terms? Well, the Trump negotiators came up with a brilliant solution.

“If Israel decides not to withdraw, Trump would be ‘very disappointed,’” an official told the BBC.

Oh no, not the “Trump will be disappointed” card!

According to the outlet, the official also said that the United States believes that Israel would continue to be a good partner.

It’s telling that roughly 12 hours after the announcement, at the time of this writing, Israel still has not publicly commented on the agreement.

That’s just for starters. Next up is the question of disarmament. 

Trump said that Israel would withdraw from Gaza “as disarmament is completed.”

Meanwhile, Hamas says it will surrender its heavy weapons only after Israel ends “all forms of aggression” and withdraws its forces from Gaza.

As far as I know, the text of the agreement hasn’t been released. But this already smells like the Strait of Hormuz fiasco—a deal drafted so ambiguously that everyone involved believes it says something different.

Then there’s Trump’s absurd so-called Board of Peace, which many of us assumed had quietly disappeared once Trump seemed to abandon his quest for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Instead, it’s essentially a fake United Nations staffed by Trump loyalists.

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Naturally, Trump chairs the board and plans to hold the position for life. It also includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff—the same people who helped botch the Iran negotiations.

Also on the board are former British Prime Minister Tony Blair (for reasons known only to Trump), private equity CEO Mark Rowan (because of course), World Bank President Ajay Banga, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, real estate attorney Martin Edelman, and national security adviser Robert Gabriel.

Twenty-eight countries have supposedly joined—mostly Middle Eastern governments eager to curry favor with Trump, several right-wing Latin American governments, and a surprisingly large contingent from Central Asia. 

It’s difficult to imagine what Mongolia will contribute to rebuilding Gaza, but even distant governments apparently see value in staying on Trump’s good side.

This isn’t a genuine international institution; it’s a Trump vanity project that will inevitably suffer from the typical cronyism, corruption, and self-dealing that infects everything Trump touches. It’s already reflected in the composition of the board, which includes absolutely no one from the supposed member countries. 

So let’s review.

Israel isn’t a party to the agreement, and the Trump administration’s only apparent leverage is the possibility that Trump might be “very disappointed.” 

Israel says it won’t withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed. 

Hamas says it won’t disarm until Israel withdraws. 

Israel appears so unimpressed with the agreement that it hasn’t even commented on it publicly, and the entire process is supposed to be overseen by a made-up organization effectively controlled by Trump and Jared Kushner.

That isn’t a recipe for lasting peace. It’s just another Trump diplomatic debacle.